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GE2020: The Roar of the Swing Voter
Hi everyone, this is my first ever post here. I run a little website called The Thought Experiment where I talk about various issues, some of them Singapore related. And one of my main interests is Singaporean politics. With the GE2020 election results, I thought I should pen down my take on what us as the electorate were trying to say. If you like what I wrote, I also wrote another article on the state of play for GE2020 during the campaigning period, as well as 2 other articles related to GE2015 back when it was taking place. If you don't like what I wrote, that's ok! I think the beauty of freedom of expression is that everyone is entitled to their opinion. I'm always happy to get feedback, because I do think that more public discourse about our local politics helps us to be more politically aware as a whole. Just thought I'll share my article here to see what you guys make of it :D Article Starts Here: During the campaigning period, both sides sought to portray an extreme scenario of what would happen if voters did not vote for them. The Peoples’ Action Party (PAP) warned that Singaporeans that their political opponents “might eventually replace the government after July 10”. Meanwhile, the Worker’s Party (WP) stated that “there was a real risk of a wipeout of elected opposition MPs at the July 10 polls”. Today is July 11th. As we all know, neither of these scenarios came to pass. The PAP comfortably retained its super-majority in Parliament, winning 83 out of 93 elected MP seats. But just as in GE2011, another Group Representation Constituency (GRC) has fallen to the WP. In addition, the PAP saw its vote share drop drastically, down almost 9% to 61.2% from 69.9% in GE2015. Singapore’s electorate is unique in that a significant proportion is comprised of swing voters: Voters who don’t hold any blind allegiance to any political party, but vote based on a variety of factors both micro and macro. The above extreme scenarios were clearly targeted at these swing voters. Well, the swing voters have made their choice, their roar sending 4 more elected opposition MPs into Parliament. This article aims to unpack that roar and what it means for the state of Singaporean politics going forward. 1. The PAP is still the preferred party to form Singapore’s Government Yes, this may come across as blindingly obvious, but it still needs to be said. The swing voter is by its very definition, liable to changes of opinion. And a large factor that determines how a swing voter votes is their perception of how their fellow swing voters are voting. If swing voters perceive that most swing voters are leaning towards voting for the opposition, they might feel compelled to vote for the incumbent. And if the reverse is true, swing voters might feel the need to shore up opposition support. Why is this so? This is because the swing voter is trying to push the vote result into a sweet spot – one that lies between the two extreme scenarios espoused by either side. They don’t want the PAP to sweep all 93 seats in a ‘white tsunami’. Neither do they want the opposition to claim so much territory that the PAP is too weak to form the Government on its own. But because each swing voter only has a binary choice: either they vote for one side or the other (I’m ignoring the third option where they simply spoil their vote), they can’t very well say “I want to vote 0.6 for the PAP and 0.4 for the Opposition with my vote”. And so we can expect the swing voter bloc to continue being a source of uncertainty for both sides in future elections, as long as swing voters are still convinced that the PAP should be the Government. 2. Voters no longer believe that the PAP needs a ‘strong mandate’ to govern. They also don’t buy into the NCMP scheme. Throughout the campaign period, the PAP repeatedly exhorted voters to vote for them alone. Granted, they couldn’t very well give any ground to the opposition without a fight. And therefore there was an attempt to equate voting for the PAP as voting for Singapore’s best interests. However, the main message that voters got was this: PAP will only be able to steer Singapore out of the Covid-19 pandemic if it has a strong mandate from the people. What is a strong mandate, you may ask? While no PAP candidate publicly confirmed it, their incessant harping on the Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) scheme as the PAP’s win-win solution for having the PAP in power and a largely de-fanged opposition presence in parliament shows that the PAP truly wanted a parliament where it held every single seat. Clearly, the electorate has different ideas, handing Sengkang GRC to the WP and slashing the PAP’s margins in previous strongholds such as West Coast, Choa Chu Kang and Tanjong Pagar by double digit percentages. There is no doubt from the results that swing voters are convinced that a PAP supermajority is not good for Singapore. They are no longer convinced that to vote for the opposition is a vote against Singapore. They have realized, as members of a maturing democracy surely must, that one can vote for the opposition, yet still be pro-Singapore. 3. Social Media and the Internet are rewriting the electorate’s perception. In the past, there was no way to have an easily accessible record of historical events. With the only information source available being biased mainstream media, Singaporeans could only rely on that to fill in the gaps in their memories. Therefore, Operation Coldstore became a myth of the past, and Chee Soon Juan became a crackpot in the eyes of the people, someone who should never be allowed into Parliament. Fast forward to today. Chee won 45.2% of the votes in Bukit Batok’s Single Member Constituency (SMC). His party-mate, Dr. Paul Tambyah did even better, winning 46.26% of the votes in Bukit Panjang SMC. For someone previously seen as unfit for public office, this is an extremely good result. Chee has been running for elections in Singapore for a long time, and only now is there a significant change in the way he is perceived (and supported) by the electorate. Why? Because of social media and the internet, two things which the PAP does not have absolute control over. With the ability to conduct interviews with social media personalities as well as upload party videos on Youtube, he has been able to display a side of himself to people that the PAP did not want them to see: someone who is merely human just like them, but who is standing up for what he believes in. 4. Reserved Election Shenanigans and Tan Cheng Block: The electorate has not forgotten. Tan Cheng Bock almost became our President in 2011. There are many who say that if Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say had not run, Tony Tan would not have been elected. In March 2016, Tan Cheng Bock publicly declared his interest to run for the next Presidential Election that would be held in 2017. The close result of 2011 and Tan Cheng Bock’s imminent candidacy made the upcoming Presidential Election one that was eagerly anticipated. That is, until the PAP shut down his bid for the presidency just a few months later in September 2016, using its supermajority in Parliament to pass a “reserved election” in which only members of a particular race could take part. Under the new rules that they had drawn up for themselves, it was decreed that only Malays could take part. And not just any Malay. The candidate had to either be a senior executive managing a firm that had S$500 million in shareholders’ equity, or be the Speaker of Parliament or a similarly high post in the public sector (the exact criteria are a bit more in-depth than this, but this is the gist of it. You can find the full criteria here). And who was the Speaker of Parliament at the time? Mdm Halimah, who was conveniently of the right race (Although there was some hooha about her actually being Indian). With the extremely strict private sector criteria and the PAP being able to effectively control who the public sector candidate was, it came as no surprise that Mdm Halimah was declared the only eligible candidate on Nomination Day. A day later, she was Singapore’s President. And all without a single vote cast by any Singaporean. Of course, the PAP denied that this was a move specifically aimed at blocking Tan Cheng Bock’s bid for the presidency. Chan Chun Sing, Singapore’s current Minister of Trade and Industry, stated in 2017 that the Government was prepared to pay the political price over making these changes to the Constitution. We can clearly see from the GE2020 results that a price was indeed paid. A loss of almost 9% of vote share is very significant, although a combination of the first-past-the-post rule and the GRC system ensured that the PAP still won 89.2% of the seats in Parliament despite only garnering 61.2% of the votes. On the whole, it’s naught but a scratch to the PAP’s overwhelming dominance in Parliament. The PAP still retains its supermajority and can make changes to the Constitution anytime that it likes. But the swing voters have sent a clear signal that they have not been persuaded by the PAP’s rationale. 5. Swing Voters do not want Racial Politics. In 2019, Heng Swee Keat, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and the man who is next in line to be Prime Minister (PM) commented that Singapore was not ready to have a non-Chinese PM. He further added that race is an issue that always arises at election-time in Singapore. Let us now consider the GE2015 results. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s Senior Minister and someone whom many have expressed keenness to be Singapore’s next PM, obtained 79.28% of the vote share in Jurong GRC. This was above even the current Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who scored 78.63% in Ang Mo Kio GRC. Tharman’s score was the highest in the entire election. And now let us consider the GE2020 results. Tharman scored 74.62% in Jurong, again the highest scorer of the entire election, while Hsien Loong scored 71.91%. So Tharman beat the current PM again, and by an even bigger margin than the last time. Furthermore, Swee Keat, who made the infamous comments above, scored just 53.41% in East Coast. Yes, I know I’m ignoring a lot of other factors that influenced these results. But don’t these results show conclusively that Heng’s comments were wrong? We have an Indian leading both the current and future PM in both elections, but yet PAP still feels the need to say that Singapore “hasn’t arrived” at a stage where we can vote without race in mind. In fact, this was the same rationale that supposedly led to the reserved presidency as mentioned in my earlier point. The swing voters have spoken, and it is exceedingly clear to me that the electorate does not care what our highest office-holders are in terms of race, whether it be the PM or the President. Our Singapore pledge firmly states “regardless of race”, and I think the results have shown that we as a people have taken it to heart. But has the PAP? 6. Voters will not be so easily manipulated. On one hand, Singaporeans were exhorted to stay home during the Covid-19 pandemic. Contact tracing became mandatory, and groups of more than 5 are prohibited. But on the other hand, we are also told that it’s absolutely necessary to hold an election during this same period, for Singaporeans to wait in long lines and in close proximity to each other as we congregate to cast our vote, all because the PAP needs a strong mandate. On one hand, Heng Swee Keat lambasted the Worker’s Party, claiming that it was “playing games with voters” over their refusal to confirm if they would accept NCMP seats. But on the other hand, Heng Swee Keat was moved to the East Coast GRC at the eleventh hour in a surprise move to secure the constituency. (As mentioned above, he was aptly rewarded for this with a razor-thin margin of just 53.41% of the votes.) On one hand, Masagos Zulkifli, PAP Vice-Chairman stated that “candidates should not be defined by a single moment in time or in their career, but judged instead by their growth throughout their life”. He said this in defense of Ivan Lim, who appears to be the very first candidate in Singaporean politics to have been pushed into retracting his candidacy by the power of non-mainstream media. But on the other hand, the PAP called on the WP to make clear its stand on Raeesah Khan, a WP candidate who ran (and won) in Sengkang GRC for this election, stating that the Police investigation into Raeesah’s comments made on social media was “a serious matter which goes to the fundamental principles on which our country has been built”. On one hand, Chan Chun Sing stated in 2015, referring to SingFirst’s policies about giving allowances to the young and the elderly, “Some of them promised you $300 per month. I say, please don’t insult my residents. You think…. they are here to be bribed?” On the other hand, the PAP Government has just given out several handouts under its many budgets to help Singaporeans cope with the Covid-19 situation. [To be clear, I totally approve of these handouts. What I don’t approve is that the PAP felt the need to lambast similar policies as bribery in the past. Comparing a policy with a crime is a political low blow in my book.] I could go on, but I think I’ve made my point. And so did the electorate in this election, putting their vote where it counted to show their disdain for the heavy-handedness and double standards that the PAP has displayed for this election. Conclusion I don’t say the above to put down the PAP. The PAP would have you believe that to not support them is equivalent to not wanting what’s best for Singapore. This is a false dichotomy that must be stamped out, and I am glad to see our swing voters taking a real stand with this election. No, I say the above as a harsh but ultimately supportive letter to the PAP. As everyone can see from the results, we all still firmly believe that the PAP should be the Government. We still have faith that PAP has the leadership to take us forward and out of the Covid-19 crisis. But we also want to send the PAP a strong signal with this vote, to bring them down from their ivory towers and down to the ground. Enough with the double standards. Enough with the heavy-handedness. Singaporeans have clearly stated their desire for a more mature democracy, and that means more alternative voices in Parliament. The PAP needs to stop acting as the father who knows it all, and to start acting as the bigger brother who can work hand in hand with his alternative younger brother towards what’s best for the entire family: Singapore. There is a real chance that the PAP will not listen, though. As Lee Hsien Loong admitted in a rally in 2006, “if there are 10, 20… opposition members in Parliament… I have to spent my time thinking what is the right way to fix them”. Now, the PAP has POFMA at its disposal. It still has the supermajority in Parliament, making them able to change any law in Singapore, even the Constitution at will. We have already seen them put these tools to use for its own benefit. Let us see if the PAP will continue as it has always done, or will it take this opportunity to change itself for the better. Whatever the case, we will be watching, and we will be waiting to make our roar heard once again five years down the road. Majulah Singapura! Article Ends Here. Here's the link to the actual article: https://thethoughtexperiment.org/2020/07/11/ge2020-the-roar-of-the-swing-vote And here's the link to the other political articles I've written about Singapore: https://thethoughtexperiment.org/2020/07/07/ge2020-the-state-of-play/ https://thethoughtexperiment.org/2015/09/10/ge2015-voting-wisely/ https://thethoughtexperiment.org/2015/09/05/expectations-of-the-opposition/
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In (Kolber's) view, (Adam) Smith was an unwavering ally of individual liberty and limited government, while never losing sight of the tendency for large vested interests to manipulate the system. (1) He believed that this tendency must be checked by institutions of government, while cautioning that those very institutions can become perverted in service to large vested interests, as has happened time and again.
The phrase, “Maximize shareholder value” is taught in many business schools as a guiding principle of management, if not an 11th Commandment. It creates what many managers consider to be a moral duty to perform any action necessary to raise the company’s market capitalization. It puts countless honorable managers in a difficult position, as it forces them to compromise between service to their employer and their broader values in life.
Smith's earlier book, Theory of Moral Sentiments is usually ignored, while his magnum opus, Wealth of Nations gets the plum reviews.
This All-In-One Thread is still undergoing correction. Feel free to post below and let me know if something needs to be corrected. What is Waltonchain? Waltonchain is the only truly decentralized platform combining blockchain with the Internet of Things (IoT) via RFID technology. Their blockchain is implemented in the foundational layer, through their unique, patented RFID chips, which are able to read and write directly to the blockchain, creating a genuine, trustworthy, and traceable business ecosystem, with complete data sharing and absolute information transparency. Click here for the News, PR & Awards Thread. Official Sources
Fashionchain-Fashionchain- Fashionchain restructures the strongly-centralized pyramid structure inherent in the fashion industry ecology into a decentralized structure in which all parties connect point to point directly.
Frequently Asked Questions Q: When will Token Swap Happen? Did Mainnet Release? Waltonchain has launched mainnet, token swap has not happened yet in progress. Token swap from Ethereum to Watlon's own chain is trending to occur complete in Q2 2019 Q4 2019-?. To prepare for swap you can hold your tokens on any of the listed exchanges. For additional information as it becomes available one should follow Walton on twitter. Q：What's the Total Supply of Waltoncoin (WTC)? The Total Supply is 100 million coins with no further issuance in any case. The Max Supply is currently 70 million coins, with the remaining 30 million left to be mined over the course of many years. Currently, the Circulating Supply is around 25 million. Q：I hear Walton is moving to its own blockchain? Main net has just been launched. Stay tuned for details about the token swap and transition to the new chain! Q：How do I convert my ERC20 WTC tokens to the real thing? You can either leave your coins on the exchange, and they will take care of the switch for you, or you can leave them in your MEW wallet, and the team will provide details on how the tokens will be swapped over. Just sit tight! Details are coming. Q: How do I move my WTC to MEW (or the new Walton Wallet)? For MEW: I. Send your WTC to your wallet address. II. Add a custom token using the information below: Address: 0xb7cb1c96db6b22b0d3d9536e0108d062bd488f74 Name: WTC Decimals: 18 For Walton Wallet: Do not send ANY coins to this wallet yet. Wait for instructions from the team. Once everything is safe, you will be able to just create a wallet on the Walton Wallet and send your coins to the public address generated. Q：What if I want to keep them on my Ledger Nano? You can do that, and the team will still snapshot your wallet and copy it along with your coins; however, the the Ledger may not support WTC currently. Don't fret. Your coins are 100% safe. What that means is, if there is no Ledger support, the only way to transfer your coins out of the wallet will be to expose your Ledger's private key. I don't recommend doing this, as it will make the ledger no more secure than a paper wallet (still very secure, but a waste of money now). So basically, your coins are safe. You can still mine to the address. You just won't be able to move them until Ledger support comes. But if you really need access to the coins, you can break out the Ledger's private key on MEW and log into your wallet. Ledger support will come, we just don't know exactly when. Walton is also making their own Walton hardware wallets. I'll update this with more information as it comes. Q：My GMN is on MEW. Will I ever be able to secure GMN in a hardware wallet? As you know, moving your GMN will void your Guardian status because it is attached to the wallet containing at least 5000 WTC; however, the team has stated that they are working on a solution for this and have reassured us that our coins will be safe. We will have to wait for more information regarding whether the transferring of a GMN to a new address will be possible in the future. Q：What is the utility of WTC? What gives the coin value? In the WaltonChain Ecosystem WTC will have multiple functions:
Issuing sub chains
Credit and mortgage system
Distributed asset exchange
Distributed voting and governance system.
More in depth coverage of each point here Q: Is Waltonchain a platform? Yes. Waltonchain is a smart contract platform that will have ICOs and dApps. Q: But I thought Walton just tracked clothing in the supply chain. What else can it do? Walton is capable of implementation in smart cities, smart waste management systems, and things of that nature. That's certainly beyond supply chain. Walton isn't so much a "supply chain" coin as it is a Big Data coin. The RFIDs are used to gather data, which is very useful in supply chain management. But it can also be used to combine with smart devices and make an Internet of things network. Q: Why does this need a blockchain? "It is difficult for the Internet of things under the current central structure to accomplish real autonomous cooperation and effective transactions, because the relevant parties of such cooperation and transactions often belong to different stakeholders with complex and uncertain trust relationships. Therefore, the collaboration and transactions of the current Internet of Things devices can only be carried out under the same trust domain. That is to say, the devices to collaborate and trade must be provided or verified by the same Internet of Things service provider, which significantly reduces the true commercial value of the Internet of Things applications." (Page 2 of the Whitepaper) To expand, counterfeiting is an obvious answer to this question. There needs to be a way to truly authenticate an item. Blockchain is that answer. Walton's blockchain also removes data silos. Companies won't have to manage any database anymore. Everything is handled by Walton. Walton uses child chains which are separate from the parent chain. Companies can keep proprietary information secret and private on their child chain, and only broadcast necessary information to the parent chain for public viewing. Blockchains make the sharing of info between companies easy and fast, too. And then obviously, blockchains have perfect transparency and are immutable. Smart contracts are also extremely useful. In the supply chain industry, after perfectly counting and storing inventory, things can be auto-ordered and paid for simultaneously with wtc, just as an example. Your mind can come up with a whole host of other ideas related to automation. Furthermore, decentralized, transparent, and immutable data for things like smart waste management systems, which Walton has designed, and air-pollution monitoring systems in smart cities would benefit greatly from the blockchain, for reasons explained in the first point from the whitepaper. You could also imagine on the customer end that wanting to know where all their goods come from is important. This is in line with counterfeiting, but also with things more benign. Imagine wanting to return an item to a store, but can't remember which grocery store it was from. Lots of simple improvements like that are all use cases for blockchain. Q: I heard Waltonchain has patented technology. What are the patents? The Walton team has filed filed for 13 patents, 7 of which have been approved so far. The patents cover many inventions in chip design, but the main one of interest is the Transaction ID-reading RFID chip with memory storage. This allows the blockchain to be implemented in the Foundational layer through the RFIDs themselves. The chips can generate their own random ID hash within a secure Key Generation Center within the chip, and the hash along with the data are uploaded simultaneously to the blockchain via their RFID reader. This makes WaltonChain fully decentralized and secure. Q：What are the advantages of the RFID IC tag chip designed in this project? Existing RFID chip industry cannot meet the development of Internet of Things applications, especially applications for the Value Internet of Things:
There are few options available while the prices are high
The transmission power and stability need to be improved
The reception sensitivity is low
The anti-interference ability is poor and the transmission power is low
The existing RFID ICs have many problems such as high power consumption, poor matching with antennae, and difficult system integration, etc.
The project’s IC design has the following significant advantages:
High security: The chip integrates asymmetric random password pair generation logic, uses a core asymmetric encryption algorithm with independent intellectual property rights, and an optimized design without increasing the cost and power consumption of the chip, enabling higher communication security
Tamper-resistant: A dedicated storage space is integrated into the tag chip for the storage of hash value of tag status and key information
Optimized anti-collision design: The chip uses a binary tree anti-collision algorithm with independent intellectual property rights and a time division multiple access design, significantly improving the tag recognition success rate and the number of identifiable labels at the same time
High sensitivity: The chip uses an optimized noise suppression technology to improve the noise figure at the receiving end and the overall receiver sensitivity, which plays an important role in increasing the recognition success rate
Good compatibility: The chip can achieve high-frequency and ultra-high frequency functions at the same time, so the end customer can read the information through their smart phone and inquire about reliable product information
Long lasting: The chip adopts a low voltage and low power-consumption design, allowing the chip to last more than 20 years
Q：How much do the chips cost? Waltonchain in a nutshell with COO Monitor Chan:"We develop and produce hardware such as chips ourselves. This really differentiates us from other companies at the moment. Basically, Silitec, our technical support company, was founded in 2015 and is specialized in manufacturing chips. They already have a R&D team of around 20+ people, so in that way we are not 'increasing' cost. Next important detail is that Waltonchain’s blockchain technology is written into our chips. This means that unlike traditional RFID chips that have their own specific ID and cost around $0.15 to $0.20, the chips we develop will be below 5 cents. With the volume of sales increasing, the overall cost will spread over many units, and the system's cost and ID’s cost will go down consequently, or simply put, economics of scale will do the work." Q：I need help with mining. What resources are out there? WaltonchainMining is for this purpose. Community members here have done testing with many different configurations and have provided ample information for anything you need with setting up your cpu/gpu rig. Q：How many GMNs are left? The Waltonchain Explorer now tracks these addresses. Q：Who are the Knights?
The historic task of cultural change is to resolve throughout the dominant culture the distortions of rationalist human/nature dualisms that deny our ecological embodiment and membership of the global ecological community.
For (Moses) Hess, the cardinal sin of the Judaic people was to abandon their heritage, while the cardinal objective of his Communism was to persuade all other people to abandon theirs… Communism was the means for achieving Judaic supremacy over the gentiles. The gentiles were fated to be reduced to a faceless, deracinated mass. Capitalism was also capable of producing this effect, through free trade and the unfettered financialization of society, in which the management of money becomes a vast business in itself, and where the highest virtue, after obeisance to Judaism, is profit.
ve’ahavta (“love your neighbor as yourself”) admonition to Goyim for regarding their Jewish neighbors; as for the Jews themselves, haba le-horgecha, hashkem le-horgo (“he who comes to kill you, rise early and kill him first” as told in 3 Little Pigs))
(wolf) attempts to trick third pig out of his (brick) house by asking to meet him at various places, but he is outwitted each time (3rd pig rises early, does the suggested task, and saves himself from being eaten)
Garrett Hardin writes: "The essential characteristic of a tribe is that it should follow a double standard of morality -- one kind of behavior for in-group relations, another for out-group." -Wild Taboo "It is a tragic irony that discrimination has produced a species (homo sapiens) that now proposes to abandon the principle responsible for its rise to greatness."
Competitive Exclusion Principle In the competition for living space and resources between two species (or two groups that occupy the same ecological niche), one will inevitably and inexorably eliminate the other. “In a finite universe – and the organisms of our world know no other – where the total number of organisms of both kinds cannot exceed a certain number… one species will necessarily replace the other species completely if the two species are “complete competitors, i.e., live the same kind of life.”
In Latest Binary Options Scams, Fraudsters Pose as SEC Agents
Most of the binary options scams we have seen to date have taken two principle forms: shady trading websites, or marketers who promise impossible returns using their systems or signals. In the wake of the collapse of the binary options industry, we are seeing a new, even more pernicious type of con. Binary options con artists are now posing as SEC agents, contacting victims of binary options fraud and promising to “help” them recover their lost funds. Two such scammers are Frank Gregory Cedeno and Leonel Valerio Santana. Between June 2015 and June 2017, the two masqueraded as SEC officials, and contacted victims who had lost money trading with companies such as Banc de Binary which were being sued by the SEC and the CFTC. The scammers informed the victims (incorrectly of course) that they had to pay a fee if they wanted to partake of the settlement from the case. The scammers were able to extort over $235,000 from at least 25 victims in this way. In the process, they also stole the identities of real SEC employees and undermined the trust between the SEC and the public. Most recently, the government of the US filed a Sentencing Memorandum with the Massachusetts District Court against Santana. If the government gets its way, Santana will spend 78 months in prison, followed by 36 months of release under supervision. He will also need to pay $105,869.74 in restitution. If you are entitled to part of a settlement associated with a case filed by the SEC or CFTC against a binary options company, you do not need to pay a fee. Be wary of correspondences which look and sound official, but suggest that you need to pay. Report them to the SEC or CFTC yourself, and await a response to your inquiry. The last thing you need is to be scammed twice.
These 25 top-voted posts from r/btc this week show that users and miners are working on real solutions to help Bitcoin move forward, while Core/Blockstream are obstructing progress and losing support. Please help spread this information (including translating for the Chinese-speaking community)!
Antpool Will Not Run SegWit Without Block Size Increase Hard Fork
Leaders of Core had a childish little selfish tantrum about wanting to work on what cool stuff they wanted to build and wouldn't listen. It would have been relatively safe and easy to introduce the 2mb HF if it was progressed collectively and collaboratively with good will by all parties. All of this could have been avoided long ago. There is one person who is very influential who we know to be adamant about blocks being confined to 1mb.
Hardfork in July 2017 will be too late. If you read the statement by Peter "I don't have a clue about economics" Todd you might start to puke. “Unfortunately Bitcoin simply doesn't scale well" How about you start to tell what exactly doesn't scale you fuckhead? P.S.: The blockchain is growing indefinitely, if you don't like that fact you should choose something else than cryptocurrencies or come up with a better way.
This is classic narrowmindedness on PT's part. He'd also be the first one to say that the internet is not sustainable as it produces exponentially more and more data. These guys are fucking idiots and really have no idea what they are talking about, all they see is "BLOAT!" and "TOO BIG FOR CURRENT NODES!" then react accordingly without even thinking about the fact that Bitcoin's usefulness mitigates these limiting factors almost entirely.
People are starting to realize how toxic Gregory Maxwell is to Bitcoin, saying there are plenty of other coders who could do crypto and networking, and "he drives away more talent than he can attract." Plus, he has a 10-year record of damaging open-source projects, going back to Wikipedia in 2006.
There are limits on routing table sizes, but they are not top-down-specified-in-a-standards-document protocol limits. They are organic limits that arise from whatever hardware is available and from the (sometimes very contentious!) interaction of the engineers keeping the Internet backbone up and running.
We've long established that the 1mb limit (or their refusal to remove it) has absolutely nothing to do with technical concerns. It's a political matter, whose raison d'être we can only infer. Time to stop the bullshit and the [s]quabbling. Chinese miners wake up! Time to try something new. It quite literally can't be worse than what's going on right now.
Bitcoin has become embroiled in debate over the block size - an important topic for the health of the network, but not something that should halt progress in a young and rapidly developing field. The developer community in Bitcoin feels fairly dormant. Bitcoin never really made it past the stage of simple wallets and exchanges. Bitcoin’s “leadership” is ... toxic. Greg Maxwell, technical leader of Blockstream which employs a solid chunk of Core developers, recently referred to other Core developers who were working with miners on a block size compromise as “well-meaning dips***s.”
This was a good sobering read. It is also worth noting that Coinbase was left with little choice but to broaden its offerings given the current state of Bitcoin usability ... When BS hijacked BTC away from being money, it screwed a lot of business and usage plans. ... Praise be to the free market and the market place of ideas.
REPOST from 12/2015: "If there are only 20 seats on the bus and 25 people that want to ride, there is no ticket price where everyone gets a seat. Capacity problems can't be fixed with a 'fee market'; they are fixed by adding seats, which in this case means raising the blocksize cap." – Vibr8gKiwi
By the way, this shows that a certain other trending OP from today: Why all the disinformation? Full blocks DO NOT matter, what matters is transaction fees. Currently $0.05 ...is total bullshit. But that other OP was posted in an echo-chamber of censorship (r\bitcoin). That is dangerous (for them), because it allows them to enjoy the illusion that they are right - when in reality, they are wrong, because they are ignoring the fact that full blocks DO matter: because the overflow goes elsewhere (into fiat, into alts, etc.).
Bitcoin exchange and wallet service Coinbase is adding support for ether, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network. ...
This is quite significant. I would interpret this as a loss of confidence in Blockstream to provide what customers need in a timely manner. While Blockstream wastes time figuring out how to stuff all the world's transaction data into their beloved tiny blocks, the market will move on to solutions that can actually scale and can scale NOW.
Opinions on Gavin over there are variously: 1 - Why aren't you coding for Core? 2 - Which agency do you work for? 3 - Haha classic suxxor A very telling series of questions that the false agenda has fermented and sunk in.
It's actually kind of brilliant ! Think about it: no need for super dangerous hard forks, and not even soft forks. No new code needed, no testing, nothing. All it took was 2-3 years of endless stalling, organizing some fake conventions, a bit of character assassination and demonization here and there, nothing major. Done. It was actually very well-thought-out. Congratulations and hat off to nullcadam3us and all their drones.
Bitcoin is a giant, global "Consensus-tron" based on a fundamental meta-rule: "51% Consensus based on Greed / Self-Interest" ("Nakamoto Consensus"). Blockstream/Core is trying change this meta-rule, to make it "95% Consensus" ("Extreme Consensus") - the MOST CONTENTIOUS change conceivable in Bitcoin The main characteristic of Bitcoin is that it is basically a kind of global "consensus-producing machine" or "Consensus-tron" - which runs based on a fundamental meta-rule of "51% Consensus + Greed / Self-Interest" - also called "Nakamoto Consensus". Recently, Blockstream has started trying to quietly change this fundamental meta-rule of Bitcoin based on "51% Consensus + Greed / Self-Interest" ("Nakamoto Consensus"). Instead, they have proposed a totally different meta-rule based on "95% Consensus" - which they like to call "Strong Consensus", but a better name would probably be "Extreme Consensus", to show what an extreme change it would be.
Every binary vote has an opposite side. 95% consensus is actually 5% consensus of the opposing team. Would you like a 5% consensus system? No? Then you wouldn't like a 95% consensus system. That's why 50% is the only valid threshold -- because it's the only one that makes both sides equal.
Continuing on this road , soon Coinbase and Circle will probably allow to send and receive Ether, and Coinbase and Bitpay will offer the option to pay in Ether. At that point Gregonomic fee pressure will go out of the window. The first mover led the ground work, but it's not an exclusive advantage. Bitcoin needs to wake up from the Blockstream-induced coma !!!
This is so painfully obvious. The users do not want a "fee market". Blockstream is absolutely hell-bent on giving us one, despite there being no need for a "fee market" at this point in time. Therefore the free market will do its job and provide an alternative to Bitcoin, and the users will move to the alternative where they will get what they actually want.
Bitcoin users are speaking out, and they want bigger blocks. Compare these 2 OPs: r\bitcoin: "Full blocks DO NOT matter, what matters is transaction fees" (100 upvotes) vs btc: "Capacity problems can't be fixed with a 'fee market'; they can only be fixed by raising the blocksize cap" (200 upvotes)
The block size issue has turned me off to bitcoin entirely, I no longer evangelize, no longer buy or use them. Blockstream has destroyed all the good-will I had for Bitcoin. Once the block sizes are larger, and continue rising with use, I'll be interested again. until then, Bitcoin can wallow in the fail
Damn fucking straight, the larger block side has been compromising for over a year and they have refused to compromise from day one. Now is not the time to compromise, now is the time to sweep them aside as they have brought nothing to the table. These devs shouldn't even be given the time of day considering their open contempt for larger blocks and the miners should be finding devs that will give them what they need, rather than trying to negotiate with asshats that refuse to negotiate.
"It's truly funny how blockstream are dead against 2mb of block data using traditional transactions along with linear signature validation... but blindly think that 2.85mb of segwit + confidential payment codes + other features is acceptable." And also funny that their roadmap allows for 5.7mb blocks when blockstream decide its ok for the hard fork.. yet they cant explain what network bandwidth restrictions are currently preventing 2mb now but weirdly and suddenly not an issue for 5.7mb next year...
It's a matter of ego and politics. From a computer science standpoint, Adam Back wanted the 2-4-8 mb scaling originally, which would have been completely safe (and smart). Segwit is required for the Lightning Network and some other things Blockstream wants to centralize and profit from. No better way to get something you need in there than making it necessary for scaling and saying it's the best solution. Segwit is a backwards approach compared to the easier and cleaner solution of increasing the blocksize
maaku7: "I don't know anyone who is actually working on a hard fork right now (although I'm sure someone is). Keep in mind very few core developers were at the HK meeting and that 'agreement' is mostly not acceptable to those who were not there." The Hongkong Farce. Great job Core and Chinese/Georgian 'miners'!
HF will never happen unless miners switch client. The problem is miners still trust Adam & Co. The day Mike Hearn left, he told me: "Both Adam Back and Gregory Maxwell are extremely skilled manipulators, timewasters and both of them have been caught lying red handed. I strongly suggest you just ignore both of them. I do not plan to take part in Bitcoin related discussions further". From my experience, Adam will tell you whatever you want to hear, but do something different behind your back. Just look at his presentations he gave to the miners and others, they are full of lies and inaccuracies. This isn't rocket science. I just can't understand why people keep buying bullshit from a guy who's not even a core dev, but president of a company that only benefits from making sure Bitcoin itself is crippled so people are forced offchain.
That was known opinion by Mark [Friedenbach, maaku7]. He said right after HK that it is not Core's agreement, that individual developers there were not representatives for Core. And that the HF block limit increase is not an option. I don't know what are miners still expecting and waiting for.
There's more than enough developer talent in the Bitcoin space to ensure a hard fork comes off successfully, but the Core developers have divided the community with lies to make it more difficult to pull off. Instead of helping achieve it, they have created community-wide FUD.
My opinion is that we can't have Blockstream at all involved in Bitcoin any longer. If you keep them involved, even after a blocksize increase, we will suffer in the future. Similar to malware, you have to remove it.
Hearn describes in the interview how people in the developer scene do not truly want the cryptocurrency to be decentralized.
“They say they want so, but that’s not what they want. Bitcoin is a young, unripened Democracy, in which a group of developers hold the power. And this group is desperately trying to prevent a real vote on the future of Bitcoin.” ... “[They] won’t vote against Core, because [they’ve] been told voting is dangerous,” Hearn elucidates. “The miners are not per se against proposals to increase the capacity, such as something like Bitcoin Classic wants. The miners refuse to vote. At this point, some developers, including myself, lost interest, because we realized it no longer was a debate about the block size. Suddenly it was trying to convince Chinese people democracy is a good thing.”
~ Mike Hearn
Sadly, he sounds like the voice of reason in a world gone mad.
I think the Berlin Wall Principle will end up applying to Blockstream as well: (1) The Berlin Wall took longer than everyone expected to come tumbling down. (2) When it did finally come tumbling down, it happened faster than anyone expected (ie, in a matter of days) - and everyone was shocked.
When push comes to shove, people are going to remember pretty damn quick that open-source code is easy to patch. People are going to remember that you don't have to fly to meetings in Hong Kong or on some secret Caribbean island ... or post on Reddit for hours ... or spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on devs ... in order to simply change a constant in your code from 1000000 to 2000000.
This is so true. I mean, look at the logic. If $0.01 is not enough, and everyone sets it at $1.00, then it is still not enough because the number of transactions at the 'higher' price is still too many and blocks are still full with transactions being ignored.
The core devs (Wladimir and Maxwell) do not care about the price of bitcoin. They do not care to give investors a clear indication of what capacity will be in the near or mid future. This is contrary to the fact that everything else is known. Roger Ver is right. Investors (Hodlers) are a large part of what makes bitcoin valuable. Without a clear indication of what capacity is going to be in the future there is no clear indication of what the worth of Bitcoin actually is.
Unfortunately, I know of multiple companies with more than 100,000,000 users that have put their bitcoin integration on hold because there isn't enough current capacity in the Bitcoin network for their users to start using Bitcoin. Instead they are looking at options other than Bitcoin.
Gregory Maxwell (nullc) & /bitcoin have deleted my posts They have also banned me from any discussion on their subreddit. I was simply posting that Gregory Maxwell (nullc) is lying when he says "the Chinese Bitcoin community stands behind us". This is false, they do not. In fact, a respected member from the Chinese Bitcoin community said this: "Do you know that what you are doing is harming bitcoin by spreading misinformation? I'm from China. I can just tell you the common sense in the Chinese Community of Bitcoin. No one likes BlockStream now! People in China all know that it is Greg Maxwell who is blocking bitcoin by limiting block size. I dare say, your company can never develop any business in China in the future."
Jihan of Antpool, great response in regards to Chinese Bitcoin discussion on /bitcoin I was banned from:
Maxwell, When you talking about "in fact", it smells like no fact. You are spreading very serious rumors about the mining network situation. Antpool has been connected to Relay Network and also testing a new network called Falcon after being invited. The total network orphan rate has been keeping lower and lower in the past months, which is an evidence that the network is working in a much better situation. Antpool in the past April have only 1 orphaned block, which is an evidence that there is no selfish mining situation - a selfish mining attack will generate higher orphan rate on both competitors and attackers. On the https://poolbench.antminer.link/, you can find ... the performance of a mining pool. (This is a third party site, this is fact.) Antpool and other mining pools had made the position clear as water since in the Hong Kong meeting, that SegWit+HF [is] coming as package. If you just realized right now, ... the communication problem inside Core, you cannot blame anyone else. We will not activ[ate] the SegWit until seeing the promised (by "individuals" yes I know Maxwell could not be represented) HF code being released in Bitcoin Core. If everything is progressed according the HK Consensus, the SegWit will not be stalled. The SegWit as a very th[o]rough improvement/change [and] will need to be carefully tested and reviewed after its release, at least for several months. During which time the HF can be proposed, defined, implemented and released. While the max blocksize limit lifting can be activated later, but as the code is already contained in the release, most of the economic nodes in the network will be compatible with the coming blocksize bumping up. Bitcoin is a worldwide economy infrastructure and it requires working together and moving forward. Greg, you need to have some self control from talking like a human flesh fascist propaganda machine, trying to attack anyone who disagree with you. Please don't tag those concerns as "pro-altcoin". (Another evidence of your problematic speaking style.) The concerns are genuine concerns. Some of the concerns coming from people who hold very large stake of Bitcoin since early time. Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency in the town. I also see some small blockers are very active in the competing coin development. You cannot use this methods to distinguish people at all. Then stop judging people's intention and unrelated behavior but focus on the problem itself. The only thing I have to add is that you can't wait for Mr. Maxwell and his company to deliver their promise. It is a toxic arrangement and we need to focus on looking past them, repairing the damage and working towards the future. When there are too many lies and scandal involved, you have to cut your losses and walk away. Investors around the world will be confident once we start making firm moves. Positive press from Forbes will help repair confidence with investors. Either way, thank you! We are all committed to working together.
In successful open-source software projects, the community should drive the code - not the other way around. Projects fail when "dead scripture" gets prioritized over "common sense". (Another excruciating analysis of Core/Blockstream's pathological fetishizing of a temporary 1MB anti-spam kludge)
The essence of Gavin's point reminded me of the things the Agile Manifesto was meant to address. ... The behaviour of Blockstream is like the most pathological cases of capital-E Enterprise software development I've seen.
Why is it not recognized that ANY block size limit is a hack on a hack Bitcoin will NOT work right until the size limit hack is removed entirely. The limit is being leveraged to justify many actions. All of which would be moot if the limit did not exist.
You're absolutely right. Miners have always regulated the size of their own blocks and still do. We see it in the form of excluding zero-fee transactions, SPV mining, spam filtering, etc. They will do the same without a limit. All in the name of maintaining profitability.
“There's no better way to overpower a trickle of doubt than with a flood of naked truth” - A preview of the St Kilda Football Club’s 2016 season
St Kilda Football Club - 2016 Preview /StKilda | Official Website Fortius Quo Fidelius ("Strength through loyalty") Premierships (1): 1966 Grand Finals (7): 1913, 1965, 1966, 1971, 1997, 2009, 2010 Finalists (26): 1907, 1908, 1913, 1918, 1929, 1939, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1991, 1992, 1997, 1998, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Wooden Spoons (27): Get Fucked Club Summary “Every Tuesday I sit down with the CEO and the Football Manager to discuss the season's agenda. Well, discuss is probably the wrong word. They talk while I sit quietly and imagine their lightly salted faces frying in a skillet.” Captain: Nick Riewoldt Coach: Alan Richardson CEO: Matt Finnis President: Peter Summers Assistant Coaches: Danny Sexton (Director of Coaching & Strategy), Rohan Welsh (Defence), Adam Kingsley (Midfield), Aaron Hamill (Forwards), Adam Skrobalak (Ruck; part-time), Danny Frawley (Specialist Defence Coach; part-time). 2015 in Review 14th: 6 wins - 15 loses - 1 draw @ 78.4 Trevor Barker Medal:Jack Steven (2nd) Best Clubman Award:Jarryn Geary Best Emerging Player:Jack Lonie Player Trademark Award:Maverick Weller Leading Goal Kicker:Josh Bruce (50) 2015 Brought a host of experts predicting another dire year for the Saints, with some even predicting a winless season, and as BT would put it ‘Boy oh Boy’ they were wrong. Lead by the emergence of Josh Bruce, David Armitage and Jack Steven the Saints won 6 games, However more importantly were much more competitive against the best teams in the league. Unfortunately big losses to Carlton, West Coast and Sydney showed we have a lot of work to do Season Highlights Round 6 vs Western Bulldogs WB 13.9 (87) def by St Kilda 14.10 (94) Easily the craziest game of football I’ve ever seen, saw the Saints dominated by the Dogs for the whole first half. Until a 2nd half resurgence lead by 4 goals from Billings saw St Kilda come back from 55 points down to win. Round 11 vs Melbourne St Kilda 12.13 (85) d Melbourne 12.11(83) While not the best quality game of the season this game was particularly entertaining with an amazingly tight last quarter where neither team could score until the last minute when a late Jeremy Howe goal put Melbourne ahead, only for Steven and Montagna to perform an amazing game winning goal with 11 seconds left List Changes “There are two kinds of pain. The sort of pain that makes you strong. Or useless pain. The sort of pain that's only suffering. I have no patience for useless things. Moments like this require someone who will act. To do the unpleasant thing. The necessary thing... [puts the player out of his misery] There, no more pain.”
Jake Carlisle & Pick #14
Pick #5 & Pick #24
Nathan Freeman & Pick #68
2016 2nd round pick & Pick #63
2015 NATIONAL DRAFT
Albury Football Club
2016 Preview "For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain, there can be no mercy. There is but one rule: Hunt or be hunted." 2016 will mark another year of development for the St Kilda football club, Where we hope the young stars of the future will begin to take a greater control of the team from the veterans. We will likely see all three national draft selections make their debuts Our midfield will be lead again by the core group of Armitage, Steven, Dunstan and Weller with Billings, Lonie and Sinclair beginning to spend more time in the Middle Our Defence will be lead by Veterans Fisher and Dempster. Young Hugh Goddard should see a lot of action with Carlisle missing this year. Don’t be surprised to see Tom Lee thrown into the back line in 2016 Our Forward line will be led by Riewoldt Bruce. He is Love, he is Life. He will hopefully have support from, Billings, Ross, Lonie and Sinclair, with McCartin hopefully to have a solid second season. What we should expect to see is Riewoldt spending less time in the forward line and pushing up the ground more. Giving McCartin and Bruce more time to control the forward line Senior List “You may have all the money, Eddie, but I have all the accurate full forwards”
Players to Watch
Darren Minchington - Picked up in 2012 as a rookie, Darren has come a long way, at his best he can be a line breaking, damaging half forward. Unfortunately he has found himself somewhat down the pecking order, last year he was competing with; Billings, Sinclair, Lonie, Membrey & others for a spot in the team, with the inclusion of J. Gresham & N. Freeman this year looks to be no simpler.
Patrick McCartin - How will last years number one pick adapt to AFL football after his first season? With Riewoldt likely to be spending more time on the wing and in the middle, look to see McCartin get more time and freedom inside the forward 50. Nathan Freeman - The only top 10 pick from the 2013 draft who is yet to make his debut due to injuries. He looked to leave Collingwood for a fresh start. A Jet when healthy, he will be sure to add some much needed outside speed to the Saints midfield Jake Carlisle - The Saints big recruit for 2015 got off to a poor start with a poorly timed line of coke, Hopefully with a big preseason he can atone for his sins and join the team in time for his club debut in round 3 What's next? Snap chatting himself doing lines of coke off of a burning drawf highschooler? Players on notice “Nobody’s a Boy Scout. Not even Boy Scouts”
Tom Lee - Not sure he has the talent / body to make it, he'll need one helluva year to stay on IMO. Luke Delaney - Probably safe on the basis that Fisher will probably retire at the end of the year and we'd be screw'd if one of Goddard or Carlisle goes down.
Darren Minchinton - Can turn the game on his head when he’s playing well, but also can never seem to get some consistent form, He needs to play so consistant footy or he’ll find himself as trade bait
Nousernames-left “I'm not going to lie. I despise Snapchat. There. I've said it.”
Jake Carlisle - goes without saying. You fuck up, you fuck off.
meatpie_lover Best 22 “I love this team. I love them more than sharks love blood” FB: Dempster, Fisher, Geary HB: Savage, Goddard, Webster C:Montagna, Ross, Newnes HF Sinclair, Riewoldt, Membery FF Lonie, Bruce, McCartin Foll Longer, Steven, Armitage I/C Billings, Gilbert, Dunstan, Weller Expectations for 2016 "When you've been in the wasteland as long as I have, you become immune to flattery"
Winning all the winnable games. We should put away Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Essendon and probably Melbourne. Mixing it with the middle of the pack otherwise
Being competitive for the whole games, no blowouts and Improved accuracy when goal kicking
-Nousermanes-left Concerns for 2016 “Love of the club: most footballers are permanently chained to that slogan, club loyalty. But when you cozy up to opposition clubs and I find out, I will make that hypocrisy hurt.” Goal Kicking - Countless times last year the Saints kicked themselves out of games, this needs to change if we want to be serious in pushing for finals and winning close games. Midfielders - Too many times in 2014 when Steven or Armitage were taken out of the game via a tag, we struggled to get the ball forward and keep it there. we need to now if our current midfielders have the ability to hold their own against other strong midfields “Dodoro and I have a good working relationship. Or used to. You can see he has a temper, but I can usually cut through that and reason with him. But I may have pushed him too far, which is worrisome. Friends make the worst enemies.” Jake Carlisle - This trade can have a massive impact on the club. In particular how Jake Carlisle commits to this year off. There are two ways this could go, either he can enjoy the time off with a snapchat world tour in which he tests Coke from all around the world and he never plays a game for St Kilda. Or he works hard, keeps his nose clean literally and St Kilda get the defender we need while not paying him anywhere near as much as we first were. Josh Bruce's Haircuts The Normal The Debut The Glorious Man Bun 2016options Pass Mark "Melbourne is blocking my way. Gold Coast at my heels. There can be no false steps now. The higher up the mountain, the more treacherous the path"
12-14. We've recruited carefully, got another pre-season into our young stars and should expect the improvement to continue. Getting 10/11 by season's end would take a fair bit of luck, so 12 is a good target.
Blindspot Whitepaper: Specialized Threat Assessment and Protection (STAP) for the Blockchain
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