Proof that I actually sent this email I didn't really have a reason to pick Robert Kraft as my first target; maybe it was the low-hanging jokes available to make about him. At any rate, here's the email I sent to the email available on the Kraft Group website. "Dear Kraft Group, I am writing to ask Mr. Robert Kraft, head of your organization, for a one-time payment of $1000. I would appreciate the opportunity to communicate with Mr. Kraft directly, but you can judge from this email if you feel that would be appropriate. I would like to begin by clarifying that this email is not an attempt to extort money in exchange for anything. To be clear, I am not a current or former employee of the Orchids of Asia Spa in Jupiter, Florida, or any other organization from which Mr. Kraft has solicited illegal sexual favors. I am also not writing to offer any such services—though I can assure you, were I offering such services, they would not be of a quality meriting any financial compensation. I am merely a recent college graduate seeking free money from billionaires. I am sure that at this point you are wondering why I have decided to ask Mr. Kraft for this money. The reason is simple: curiosity. According to an October 2019 Forbes article (which I did not read but saw as a source on Wikipedia), there are 621 billionaires in the United States. I want to see if any of them will actually give me, a person they have never heard of, $1000. I am happy to report that Mr. Kraft is the first billionaire I have contacted to ask for money, meaning that he could easily be the first billionaire to actually contribute money to me. If this were to happen, I would broadcast this information to all of my 365 Facebook friends, as well as anyone who decides to follow me on this endeavor. This PR would no doubt boost Mr. Kraft’s public profile immensely. Also, if Mr. Kraft wishes to never hear from me again, $1000 is very much more than enough for me to leave him alone permanently. If at this point Mr. Kraft is wondering if he can afford to pay me $1000, the answer is a resounding “yes.” I have no idea how liquid Mr. Kraft’s assets are, but going off of Mr. Kraft’s net worth (per Google) of a hilarious $6.9 billion dollars, I am almost positive Mr. Kraft has the cash on hand. Assuming Mr. Kraft actually had $6.9 billion in cash, $1000 would represent .00001% of his cash. Further, if we were to assume I live for exactly 50 more years, $1000 times 18262 days (365 * 50 plus 12 leap days) represents a commitment of $18,262,000. Even this amount is a mere .2% of Mr. Kraft’s net worth; with all of his assets in cash, Mr. Kraft could afford to pay 500 different people $1000 per day for 50 years. However, I am not asking for this arrangement (though I would not turn it down if Mr. Kraft offered it). I am simply asking for a one-time payment of $1000. The next question I would expect Mr. Kraft to ask is “how would this person spend this $1000?” Obviously, a lot of this money would go to monthly expenses (gas, rent, groceries, etc). So, to present a better picture of what my discretional spending looks like, I have prepared a graph of my typical non-recurring monthly expenses: See graph My financial expenditures are very much seasonal, but I believe this graph presents a reasonably good profile of what my spending looks like. This graph obviously does not account for things I cannot currently afford but would like to have. If Mr. Kraft were to pay me $1000, a good portion of that money would likely be invested into dogs (I currently own 0 but would like at least 3), bitcoin, and additional Onlyfans subscriptions. In closing, I want to thank Mr. Kraft in advance for his consideration. I realize that I literally bring nothing to the table, as I am not offering any services in exchange for the money I request (besides leaving Mr. Kraft alone if desired). But I believe that Mr. Kraft, a man who built a massive fortune and exceedingly successful sports franchise, will recognize the hustle that went into putting together this pitch. As the kids say, game recognizes game. Thank you for your time."
The pandemic period played into the hands of the entire team and we managed to build beauty in our services. In anticipation of the exchange, the team tidied up the sites and services and connected new tools. First of all, we paid attention to the preparation of all services for a foreign audience, taking into account its mentality. New sections, localizations, nice things, and much more to ensure the most efficient use of the TKEY resource. In addition to the new tabs, the services that we will talk about in this material, there is a special page for representatives of the exchange with the necessary documentation for listing — https://tkeycoin.com/en/documentation/. https://preview.redd.it/63a1cmdwve151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a064bff4acd1c1e3171f2c72ff79533b87aa3e1
Buying cryptocurrency for pound, dollars, euros, and other currencies
At the end of February, we told you that we are working on building a payment service that will include the provision of services: buy cryptocurrencies, sell a cryptocurrency, withdraw cryptocurrency to Bank cards, etc. This day has come, now you can buy Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Tether USDT, Basic Attention Token (BAT), Algorand (ALGO), Tron (TRX), OKB (Token Okex.com). https://preview.redd.it/1pm2cnv8we151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=69473d2e5ed1b8dc75189362b46906752be29895 The purchase is available in any currency: Russian ruble, US Dollar, Euro, British pound, Ukrainian hryvnia, Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won, Japanese yen, Turkish Lira, Argentine peso. As you can see, the currency corridors are quite extensive, which allows you to make exchanges fast and at a favorable rate. Just choose the right pair to exchange or buy, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB. Even if this wide list does not include the currency you want to buy, such as Bitcoin or USDT, it’s okay — the service will automatically convert your currency into the payment currency and the Bank will make the exchange. Exchanges take place within 1–3 minutes, it is enough to pass quick verification once, which allows you to work with a volume of > 15,000 euros per month. https://preview.redd.it/0ln5uttawe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=35de9e413db35bb53f39332aa4197cd54a3e211c
Exchange of cryptocurrencies for pound, dollars, euros, and withdrawal of Bankcard
In addition to the fact that you can now easily buy a cryptocurrency for fiat currencies, pound, dollars or any other, during this week we will finish work on the withdrawal to a Bank card and you can easily withdraw your profit to the card, the most important thing is that this is a completely legal method, and all operations pass through banks and jurisdictions where work with digital assets is legalized.
This means that when you buy or make a withdrawal to the card, you get legal funds that are credited to you by the Bank or payment system.
If you are used to working with effective tools that work in a new way, or rather correctly and legally, then this service is for you. Fast crediting, easy exchange, a large selection of currency pairs, that’s what the company is betting on. We work with the most reliable third-party partners to make your cryptocurrency process easy and convenient, and most importantly safe for You. The service supports plastic and virtual Bank cards VISA, MasterCard, MIR, and other payment systems for fast payment processing. https://preview.redd.it/x1jnm1ccwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=f86fc353ad5f207db8d233821204b521ba0b3d0e On the exchange page, you can choose any currency pair to exchange in the opposite direction, for example, GBP to BTC or USD to BTC. Choose a suitable pair for exchange, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies for exchange: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB. How it works When buying cryptocurrency for the first time, your Bank reserves (holds) the requested amount, then this amount is transferred to the authorization waiting state. As soon as the Bank freezes the fiat funds, the service fixes the exchange rate at the time of creating the application, reserves the cryptocurrency, and provides you with 30–40 minutes to complete verification. After successful verification, the service charges cryptocurrency to the wallet.
Support for other currencies, including TKEY, will be added gradually and highlighted through service updates. As for the TKEY exchange, it will become available in exchange services after listing on the exchange. Listing on an exchange allows you to automate the exchange process, link the necessary services, and most importantly, the exchange provides liquidity, which is key when we talk about exchanging for a particular currency. We will tell you more about the operation of the service and its advantages, chips, in a separate material dedicated to the withdrawal and purchase of cryptocurrencies for fiat currencies, as well as touch on various banking issues and tell you how you can combine the SWAP service for more efficient exchange and withdrawal to the card.
By making an exchange or purchase of cryptocurrency, you help children and people who need our help. We deduct 0.1% of the profit from each transaction to charity funds. This is the fastest and most comfortable way of charity, which allows you to bring together people who are not indifferent to other people’s problems. TKEY enables people to do good deeds, and the resulting turnover profit of 0.1% is sent to charity funds every month. Together with You, we create new opportunities for people in need who need help — “Big things have small beginnings”. How does it work? You have made an exchange or purchase operation, the company has accumulated the volume of these operations for a month->the company has chosen a charity Fund->sent funds to the charity Fund’s account. Priority charity funds are children’s aid funds. You can always suggest a candidate for a particular Fund by sending a message to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). Why do we write Funds and not a Fund? This is the first launch of the service, so depending on the monthly volume, we will focus on distributing funds to one charity or several. For example, if we have accumulated $ 10,000, we can distribute $ 5,000 to 2 funds. if we have accumulated $ 100, it is logical that we will only send this amount to 1 Fund. With the development of the service, we will be able to focus on several funds, which we will actively help due to the received volume.
New blocks were added, the entire page was fully localized and is available in Chinese, Korean, English and Russian, and QR codes were added for easy navigation for the Asian audience.
Documentation for the exchange
We have already mentioned that there is a section for exchanges with the necessary documentation for listing, now it is available in English. In the next updates, it will be translated into Russian, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), and Korean.
Added answers to frequently asked questions in various sections of the site, You can find the information directly on the section page, for example, TKEY-QT, SWAP or Core. Right on the page there is a FAQ section, in which we disclose answers to questions, for example: How are You going to solve the scalability problem, or why did you choose Phoenix as the logo and symbol of the project, or how do you exchange cryptocurrency for pound or dollars? As you can see, you can get answers to different questions, depending on the topic of the site section. https://preview.redd.it/8utkvv6iwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=d493ec784d74c5982486e36fe3b4bcbcb6d57335
In addition to various improvements, connecting services, our team has been working every day on other main areas of the Tkeycoin project, which are already being prepared for the next release and we will tell you what updates, what plans, events, and what else will be interesting this year.
Online conference with management
An online conference in question-answer format will be organized. The main task of the conference, in addition to questions and answers, is to discuss plans, talk about new directions, touch on issues of legislation, and analyze current issues of users. The online meeting format will allow you to get feedback and discuss a large number of issues in a short time. Questions related to technical support and other questions that can be answered through the administration will not be discussed. The meeting involves the development, constructive, and suggestions from users for further development of the Tkeycoin project. If you are interested in participating in the conference, you can also make business proposals during it, please use the time to your advantage. We work for you.
New content: reports, new categories, useful information
Based on user feedback, we introduce new categories to our content plan: Reports This section will be accompanied by information about the work done by the team for the month, the format of submission — abstracts, highlights. This format will help establish feedback between users and developers. Question-answer In addition to the content that we produce ourselves, users have questions that arise during the process of working with the project’s services, as well as during interaction with the project itself. To avoid making guesses and making up stories, we have introduced the question-answer category. Users ask questions in comments, and the company prepares answers based on the questions and they are published in the post. Depending on the number of questions, the post generates all the answers, or the post is divided into parts if the number of questions for the past period was the largest. In addition to asking questions, you can make suggestions to the project, for example, about new features or directions. This format also builds feedback and helps to improve all services. the most important thing is that it can not only help us but also you, as the offer and questions will help you focus on the tasks that the end-user wants to see.
TKEY-POOL (Tkeycoin pool)
We are completing the work and debugging of the official pool for Tkeycoin, this is a completely new approach for mining Tkeycoin. The pool will feature higher performance and stable architecture, a light interface, and objective commissions. A pool is a highly loaded system that works 24/7/365, it turns out that such a product hides a sufficient number of lines of code and, most importantly, is built on a reliable architecture that can withstand +50000–100000 miners, not to mention the number of connected devices for this number of miners. A cryptocurrency pool is a combination of the hardware power of many miners at once to increase the probability of finding a block. The reward for a block obtained by the pool is distributed among all participants. The TKEY pool is developed taking into account the features of the Tkeycoin blockchain, including multi-blockchain, transaction model, hashing, blocks, and other nuances that are an upgrade of the blockchain among others. Together with the pool, the TKEY network is being tested: high loads, attacks, and other tests that show positive results, proving that the TKEY blockchain can work under any loads and is protected from attacks. Our task was to: 1. Stable system for handling high loads; 2. Adaptation pool for any software; 3. Connecting any hardware for mining cryptocurrency Tkeycoin; 4. Fair remuneration calculation; 5. Security. The main goal is for any user, regardless of the software and hardware used, to be able to connect to Tkeycoin mining via a pool. The first releases will be accompanied by a simple user-friendly interface, easy connection, instructions for various mining programs that can be connected. In future releases, we will optimize the operation of the pool, add new features, as well as tracking functions and other nice things. any suggestions from miners and the community are interesting to us and will be implemented, so do not hesitate to send your suggestions after the launch.
https://preview.redd.it/fjy2dkanwe151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=99dedd6aa59ae7eb4d585d2ef1ddae4cc6dd50f9 Work on the TkeySpace mobile app is also not standing still. We will soon release updates for TkeySpace on Android and iOS. This release is a complete transition to the most stable version of the mobile wallet. This means that after the update, even with the largest changes, the user will not need to completely reinstall or restore to use the new features, as before, just update the app via the AppStore or GooglePlay. Between the previous update has been a sufficient amount of time, on average, updates are released once a month. This update will be one of the major ones. We are finishing work on the code to prepare the app for the new features that will be available this year. Besides, we are improving the app’s logic, data processing speed, optimizing the code, restoring order, and preparing for the global market.
Exchange, purchase of cryptocurrency and withdrawal to the Debit/Credit Card
The development team is finishing work on optimizing the SWAP service. Regardless of updates, it is available in working mode 24/7/365. The team is working on improving the operation, optimizing the page, changing the interfaces, improving navigation, and speeding up query processing. This update is also among the upcoming ones, along with the pool, mobile wallets, and other news that will excite.
In the network statistics section, there are several sections that will be fixed — this is the hash rate of the network and the volume of Tkeycoin. Now the volume of Tkeycoin is displayed by mTKEY, and the graph itself indicates M TKEY, the user may incorrectly understand the volume of transactions in the network, so, given the current volume, it is advisable to switch the display to TKEY, and in the future switch to mTKEY for large volumes.
This issue has become the cause of mass discussions, disputes, investigations, the subject of memes, kitchen, and online conversations, that just did not happen, that TKEY is not taken anywhere, someone made guesses that we are waiting for everyone to run away, or TKEY is a world conspiracy and around some actors, you can write a book or shoot a great series, not worse than Breaking Bad. Jokes, jokes, but the question is serious. Since the 4th quarter of last year, the company has been actively working on the issue of listing, prepared the necessary platform for this, held several meetings, negotiations, released the necessary products, figured out various transfers of funds to the blockchain, worked out many small things, many major issues that were behind the scenes. Everything is ready, and it’s time to start soon. This will be a surprise, believe it or not, and we will meet you on the stock exchanges :)
What other plans does the company have?
Enabling payment at retail outlets
After entering the exchange, we will actively engage in connecting payments to implement them and link them to TKEY. The plan, strategy, and legal component are ready.
This implies the development of payments and services that will expand the use of digital currencies in the commercial sphere. Application on the territory of Russia will depend on the Federal law on the CFA, in any case, we plan to analyze the law, after its release, to find a legal way to implement payments based on blockchain and digital assets. Therefore, until the law is released, we are keeping this initiative in the future, and we will work on other jurisdictions that will support it. We left some plans behind the scenes, because they will make the greatest impact on the market and the value of our asset, and this — likes silence.
What useful materials will be released soon?
How to effectively use the SWAP service together with the exchange and purchase of cryptocurrency from a Bank card?
We will tell you in detail how to use these 2 services, how to save on payments and purchases, how to exchange tokens that are very difficult to exchange, how to quickly get money for them to the card, and much more.
The law CFA
Our opinion about the law of cryptocurrencies in Russia, what to pay attention to, what to prepare for, how to act if there is a complete ban. Let’s talk about legal nuances and banking practices.
In this material, we will talk about the blockchain, analyze the issues of the system, expand the questions on attacks, payment processing, and touch on the system of multiple chains. The article suggests your suggestions, perhaps someone will have ideas that we will implement in the chain. At the end, Don’t forget to ask questions in the comments or send suggestions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) we will be happy to respond and consider your requests for any of our services. Collaboration, feedback, help us make the whole platform better. Thank you for being with us! Until new meetings, stay tuned for news, updates, because the most unexpected news comes spontaneously.
Prime Advantage Crypto Margin Trading Exchange audits
Prime Advantage immediately got one of the significant players in the cryptographic money exchanging world in any event, surpassing significant players like BitMex and other huge digital currency trades. The fundamental point of Prime Advantage is to tackle issues that different trades have, for example, delayed KYC forms for endorsement, personal times, short liquidity, exchanging issues for bombing markets, request type/types that are restricted, not incredible UE, and obviously transcending trade expenses. At Prime Advantage you can get extraordinary influence, helpful UI, broad liquidity and exchange volumes. Influence at Prime Advantage Experienced brokers will in general quest fundamentally for one element – influence. Most trades offer such an element yet it is exceptionally constrained considering exchanging digital forms of money. The influence rate at Prime Advantage is 1:100. I don't get this' meaning? For $1, you are getting purchasing as well as selling power that is worth $100. This at last gives you a passage to a greater market position – the chance to make more benefits and separately misfortunes. At Prime Advantage influence is a key component. At the site you can locate an exhaustive clarification with respect to use and it is an extraordinary assistance for the individuals who don't totally get it. Prime Advantage is an extraordinary decision of crypto edge exchanging trade for both begginer and propelled dealers. Edge Trade on Prime Advantage There is a clarification including a BTC/USD model. In it, you expect Bitcoin costs $10,000 for every unit, and the cost went up by 5 % all through your venture. On the off chance that you are utilizing no influence trade, you could have 10 bitcoins for $100,000 On the off chance that the value rose with 5 %, one BTC will be $10,500 so in the event that you choose to sell your 10 BTCs you will have $5,000 benefit from your underlying venture of $100,000. In spite of that, in the event that you make this exchange at Prime Advantage with the 1:100 influence, you just compensation 1 % of $100,000 which is just $1,000 ahead of time. This means you will even now benefit $5,000 however you will just contribute $1,000. At the Prime Advantage stage you can find out about the benefits of influence exchanging which incorporates the opportunity to up your benefits, let loose your money to utilize it for different speculations and furthermore gain at whatever point there is a market fall. There is additionally an advantageous influence number cruncher on PrimeXBT, so you can make sense of your purchasing power dependent on your accessible capital. The main thing you need to consider is that while influence is expanding the potential benefits it additionally builds the potential misfortunes. That is the reason you must be extremely cautious when you utilize the maximum influence that is offered at PrimeXBT. Nonetheless, the accomplished and sure merchants thing that influence is one of the incredibly valuable instruments. The most effective method to Profit From Movements Of The Markets You may definitely realize that the digital money showcase isn't continually expanding and that is the reason PrimeXBT is offering strategies for circumstances when the market moves. You can exchange the mainstream monetary standards and simultaneously supporting possessions that exist or benefitting from rallies and market decays. With Prime Advantage you may go short or long. Going long is purchasing and going short is selling. Going long methods you purchase BTC and when the estimation of BTC expands your record esteem ascends also. At the point when the cost of BTC drops down – your record esteem diminishes. Going short implies that you can open a position and its worth will go up if the estimation of BTC diminishes. Exchanging at Prime Advantage But doing short/long exchanges and having influence 1:100, Prime Advantage additionally has incredibly easy to use and adjustable interface and furthermore underpins a few screens. The digital currency stage is sheltered and solid likewise overly quick. It is incredible in any event, for amateurs yet additionally incorporates instruments that an expert dealer would appreciate. There are numerous helpful diagram apparatuses including various sorts of outlines, many drawing instruments just as an alternative to exchange straightforwardly by means of the graph. The exchange charges and commission rates at Prime Advantage are low. Additionally there are tight crypto spreads. Prime Advantage Platform For Trading Тhere is a live stage exchanging review at PrimXBT so you can encounter how everything functions in advance. A bit of leeway is that this see is incredibly like the real form. One of the distinctions is that there is a mark Positions at the base of review screen. With the live Prime Advantage record you will see positions list with segments: images, positions ID, date and time, present costs, benefit take, misfortune stop, etc. As this see alternative isn't account related, it is obscured and over you can discover the register or sign in choices. All things considered Prime Advantage is the thing that you anticipated that it should be on the grounds that it is very like the exchange pages handy financial specialists are acclimated. On the left top screen side you can see the money sets list including USD/LTC, USD/BTC, USD/ETH, USD/EOS, USD/XRP. You can see the value offer, change and approach costs for each pair. The figures are shaded in red, green and white. Green demonstrates increments and red shows diminishes. At the point when you click on a couple you will see the purchase/sell screen for this crypto pair. The purchasing/selling costs and the low and the high for the pair will be accessible moreover. Under this segment, to one side of the exchanging screen, there is the Order Book. It shows data for any digital currency pair you as of late browsed the upper left is part to buys and deals. But the costs and amounts list, the Order book likewise offers the chance to see visual diagrams portrayal in red and green. It is exceptionally advantageous as you can see the progressing patterns. There is an outline at the exchange page's primary segment, which sits on the privilege of the crypto list and the request book. At the upper left of this outline you can see the money pair that is spoken to. This can be balanced when you click the container where the pair is recorded and type the new crypto paithere is likewise an auto fill alternative/or when you click on the cryptographic money pair situated in the left of the posting crypto area. Prime Advantage Reviews The default graph at Prime Advantage is a candle one. It is red and green demonstrating costs vertically and time on a level plane. Pointing over the graph show the specific time and date, high and low, open/close and the worth. The time length can be expanded or diminished when you change the diagram time which is under the fundamental outline. The majority of the settings are found at the highest point of this graph. There is a menu by means of which you can make candle interim change. Default time is set to 5 min. however, there is the alternative to change to 1, 15, 30 min. or on the other hand pick a day, seven days, or a month. Left of this you can discover a possibility for exchanging the candle diagram to charts – line or bar. Additionally there are possibilities for line of sight. Brokers can browse long and short or from various markers, instruments and lines including pattern lines and channels, apparatuses, for example, Fibonacci Rays and some more. For experienced merchants there is a segment called Studies which can be gotten to from a test tube symbol right of the referenced choices above and left of area Studies. You have a decision of numerous examinations accessible or to include your own investigation. You can utilize 5 at once. The techniques for exchanging at PrimeXBT are two. At the left half of the page you may tap on the pair you picked and fill the data in the case that springs up. Then again you have the choice to utilize a segment at the left top diagram corner, under the pair's name. 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End As we as a whole realize the exchanging space for digital forms of money is a jam-packed one and Prime Advantage has made one firm contribution. Prime Advantage exchange stage is very simple for use, has low commission expenses, spreads are tight and the influence is advertise driving at 1:100. Albeit another trade Prime Advantage end up being one of the growing ones and furthermore with an extraordinary notoriety in the digital money exchanging world. Obviously, as this is a trade that offers influence, make certain to continue with it mindfully in the event that you haven't attempted this sort of exchanging previously. It is exceptionally simple to destroy things and end up with liquidation and loss of the cryptographic money you own, particularly on the off chance that you are utilizing transcending influence sum. https://www.primeadvantageapp.com/ https://www.instagram.com/primeadvantageapp/ https://twitter.com/primeadvantages https://www.pinterest.co.uk/primeadvantageapp/ https://www.facebook.com/primeadvantageapp/ https://www.facebook.com/events/559916687976351/
Hi Bitcoiners! I’m back with the 30th monthly Bitcoin news recap. For those unfamiliar, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in Bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month. You can see recaps of the previous months on Bitcoinsnippets.com A recap of Bitcoin in May 2019 Adoption
WARNING: If you try to use the Lightning Network you are at extremely HIGH RISK of losing funds and is not recommended or safe to do at this time or for the foreseeable future (274 points, 168 comments)
The guy who won this week's MillionaireMakers drawing has received ~$55 in BCH and ~$30 in BTC. It will cost him less than $0.01 to move the BCH, but $6.16 (20%) in fees to move the BTC. (164 points, 100 comments)
Do you think Bitcoin needs to increase the block size? You're in luck! It already did: Bitcoin BCH. Avoid the upcoming controversial BTC block size debate by trading your broken Bitcoin BTC for upgraded Bitcoin BCH now. (209 points, 194 comments)
Master list of evidence regarding Bitcoin's hijacking and takeover by Blockstream (185 points, 113 comments)
PSA: BTC not working so great? Bitcoin upgraded in 2017. The upgraded Bitcoin is called BCH. There's still time to upgrade! (185 points, 192 comments)
This sub is the only sub in all of Reddit that allows truly uncensored discussion of BTC. If it turns out that most of that uncensored discussion is negative, DON'T BLAME US. (143 points, 205 comments)
211 points: fireduck's comment in John Mcafee on the run from IRS Tax Evasion charges, running 2020 Presidential Campaign from Venezuela in Exile
203 points: WalterRothbard's comment in I am a Bitcoin supporter and developer, and I'm starting to think that Bitcoin Cash could be better, but I have some concerns, is anyone willing to discuss them?
163 points: YourBodyIsBCHn's comment in I made this account specifically to tip in nsfw/gonewild subreddits
161 points: BeijingBitcoins's comment in Last night's BCH & BTC meetups in Tokyo were both at the same restaurant (Two Dogs). We joined forces for this group photo!
156 points: hawks5999's comment in You can’t make this stuff up. This is how BTC supporters actually think. From bitcoin: “What you can do to make BTC better: check twice if you really need to use it!” 🤦🏻♂️
155 points: lowstrife's comment in Steve Wozniak Sold His Bitcoin at Its Peak $20,000 Valuation
151 points: kdawgud's comment in The government is taking away basic freedoms we each deserve
147 points: m4ktub1st's comment in BCH suffered a 51% attack by colluding miners to re-org the chain in order to reverse transactions - why is nobody talking about this? Dangerous precident
147 points: todu's comment in Why I'm not a fan of the SV community: My recent bill for defending their frivolous lawsuit against open source software developers.
You can make a profit only when you notice the prerequisites for the pump in time. Buying cryptocurrency after a rapid rise in price is extremely risky and there is a high probability of losing money. It is impossible to know about it in advance if you are not familiar with the organizers of the scheme. You can predict the pump if you notice an increase in trading volumes that usually precede it - so called Pre-Pump. Profits depend on how strong the effect will the pump produce. If buyers are inactive, the organizers will quickly get rid of the cryptocurrency and bring down the rate in a matter of seconds. But there are longer living pumps - continuing for hours or days. Pampas are often held on exchanges such as Binance, BitMEX and Poloniex. In order to protect yourself when the cryptocurrency rate falls, you have to set stop losses. And advanced Smart Trade trailing mechanisms on the Trade-mate.io service will help you get the maximum profit during the pump, while insuring traders from the risks of a sharp price drop.
Australians, you need to start buying as much crypto as you can.
I’m Australian, this isn’t meant to be an alarmist or sensationalist post, but the economic situation in our country is a lot more serious than most of us think. First off, the current economic situation. Simply put, our economy is fucked. Our housing market is dangerously overleveraged and because of policies by our government at the time, we never experienced the correction the US and most of the rest of the world did during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. Australians are up to their eyeballs in debt, almost half of the housing loans are interest only, it’s the reason the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t raised the interest rates since 2016. Because as soon as they do, even by 0.01%, tens of thousands of Australians are going to default on their mortgages. It’s no secret that our housing market is one of the most expensive in the world, and anyone living in our country already knows this. The market value of Australian homes is 4 times the GDP of the country. Our housing market is beyond the point of saving and the bubble is about to pop. And while our mainstream media is trying to convince us that it will deflate slowly, history paints a different picture. And that’s just the start of our problems. It’s no secret that China is our biggest trading partner. We rely on China more than any other developed country in the world. And what is currently happening on the greater global stage? Our most important military ally has engaged in a trade war with China, and the effects of that trade war are starting to be felt. Chinese stocks are in freefall, and that’s only going to be the beginning of the negative effects from Trump’s hardline approach to dealing with China. It doesn’t take a genius to see that this is going to have a devastating effect on our economy. Our biggest trading partner is having a financial gunfight with the USA, which is going to result in them buying less of our stuff. And still that isn’t the end of it. Mining is down. Commodities prices are down. Our manufacturing sector is almost dead. The only thing we have going for us at the moment is agriculture and that can’t prop up the entire economy. You wanna turn white? Read this article from last year. Our economy is teetering on the precipice. You think I’m being dramatic? Well even the Australian MSM can no longer ignore it. With articles like this appearing almost on the daily. Our dollar is in serious trouble, anyone who knows the slightest bit about TA go look at the graphs in that article. Our country is in serious economic trouble. And we don’t know shit about it because our media is a duopoly that makes most of its money from their real estate arms. All signs are pointing to our dollar about to be worth a hell of a lot less than it currently is. What can we do? Since this is the crypto subreddit the solution to this impending economic shitstorm should be painfully obvious. Buy fucking Bitcoin. Not the solution for the country, for you. The country isn’t going to do shit for anyone of us except saddle us with debt and a cooked economy that is going to take generations to get out of, if ever. So we should be diversifying. Sure buying gold probably isn’t a stupid idea either, but if you think that is proof against state intervention, read a history book. Even then, gold still needs to be converted into cash to be useful, and anyone paying attention can see that Australia is gearing up for a war on cash that borders on tyrannical. The only way for us as individuals to protect our wealth at the moment is to convert it into cryptocurrency. But Bitcoin is low at the moment! No shit. But if you think it’s going to stay that way you are 1. In the wrong subreddit, and 2. No paying attention to the macro factors of crypto. Wall St is gearing up to enter. The bank that runs the world is getting involved. And not just American banks. Bitcoin may be low now but if you know anything about market cycles, you know that it’ll be back. Here is a good comparison of BTC a few years ago as opposed to now. It’s almost at the point where it’s irresponsible not to be buying bitcoin, and I’m not the only one that holds this opinion. Worst case scenario, bitcoin falls to USD 3k. What do you think is going to happen after that? Bitcoin and crypto aren’t going anywhere and you’re kidding yourself if you think that the value of bitcoin isn’t going to be much higher in the years to come. Of course the RBA is telling people that Bitcoin is dead, probably because they don’t want Australians to dump their soon to be worthless fiat currency. In fact one any given day you’ll see a bunch of anti-crypto propaganda on our MSM. The same MSM that has been telling us all to buy as many houses as we can for the last 20 years. The same MSM that up until now hasn’t said shit about the direction our economy is heading in. The writing’s on the wall people. If we keep our wealth in AUD it’s going to be worth considerably less sooner rather than later. Our property sector is going to crash, our dollar is going to crash, our personal wealth is going to be stripped away from us. If you want to avoid this, if you want to protect your wealth, ensure a future that isn’t financial hardship, then we really only have one choice. Buy bitcoin. Personally I am converting half my pay each week into BTC and just holding it. Not putting it into alts. Just btc. I’d advise you do the same as well. I understand that this sounds super risky. But if you read the articles I’ve linked to in this post I’m sure you’ll see that the only risky move is doing nothing. This isn’t a joke or a false alarm. The notion that our economy has always been fine up until now isn’t valid anymore. If you want to protect your personal wealth and purchasing power in the next few years, you really should be buying as much btc as you can while it is this low. This is what crypto is for, avoiding the negative financial downturns of specific countries. It’s a globally traded commodity that is accessible by anyone with a computer. Our economy tanking isn’t going to affect the price one bit. I hope some of this has been useful. Listen to me, don’t listen to me, it’s your choice. But this is the digital age, there’s no excuse for ignorance anymore.
bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin Halves every 4 years. Price is function of demand, with consistent demand, and no speculation or outside influence, price grows at 19% per year. 1 -> 2 -> 4 -> 8 is a 19% rate of growth. Volatility is the two-way function of price. Bitcoin is computationally fixed, more predictable than Gold, Fiat, or any other asset known to man - fixed at 19%, with flat demand, flat counter-party influences, 100% unalterable, 100% auditable, 100% known. Regardless of opinion, Bitcoin is more fixed and unalterable, at 19% annualized growth, than any other major store of wealth, in existence, ever - everything flat, society goes linear. What is also fixed? Time. X. Bitcoin is Time when graphed. Meaning, all volatility is due to either change in demand or change in outside influence, never, ever a change in Bitcoin - it is the pole upon which Archimedes stands. Now let's think of the counterpoint, and how Bitcoin is used. For this we will get deep and practical. Bitcoin is not mana, you don't buy a little every day (that is dumb) : Bitcoin is a bank, a reserve. You buy a bunch of it, and devy it out as you deplete. So every new buyer of Bitcoin has some scaling function, whereby savings transfer into Bitcoin, until Maxed, and then if Income < Costs, they pinch out to deplete. The importance here is 19% is inferior to VC moneybags investing, the purchase of tools, the hiring of a tutor, or the micro-investing into side-hustles; but for the passive, index investor, it reigns supreme. Now let's get deeper. The square root of Bitcoin is South America, Africa, Asia, and the island nations - the colonialized, and oppressed. Is it America, is it Europe, is it Communist? Unimportant - it could be the distablization brought on by nature: in any country in which localized Fiat is untrusted, it is setup to pay tribute to a colonial power (such as propagation of USD), or run risk of being debased. The cost of a 51% attack is X, reward more than. Imagine outsiders bring war to Iraq to remove a dictator and acquire oil. In such a case, currency gets debased, commerce halted, and it is the unintentional consequence of a side-quest. People of Iraq live and die, accidentally trampled without malice or profit. Bitcoin saves that. Now if colonization is an objective, and part of the business plan for say the US government is to destabilize Argentina, Turkey, or whatnot - with the hope either they choose to propagate USD, or they pay USD men to provide "insurance" and if not their money gets debased - kinda like a mob, everyone needs a bit of mafia in their life, if only to discourage future suitors. In the event Bitcoin is known, a tortured society can collectively starve-off profits; making those that make money by charging a Colonial Management Fee, make less. Less expectation, less investment. All peoples within a danger zone for rapid debasement can optionally support a known mafioso, Bitcoin, or in the event the destabilization is a cause of nature, their nearest sovereign-currency provider (EU, US, GBP). Once one currency is debased, it is unwise for a population to 'invest' in its replacement. Either it could be contrived, or at a minimum it is untested. Investing in ones local currency should be done at a minimum "whatever you can afford to lose", if it faces significant risk of debasement, or conversely could be used as a hidden-payoff to mobsters. Alternatively one can think of holding local speculative currency as a 'charitable giving', of sorts. Here, Bitcoin is merchandising. Here, Bitcoin is daily spending. The wealth of this customer is paltry, the need sudden, and excessively sharp. They are a refugee - but unlike a migrational refugee, they can flee 'over the internet' so to speak. So, if ones supply chain remains intact, in theory one could swap Debased Dollar for Bitcoin, without any economic loss - loss in the progress of things, stalling of good transfers, services rendered, etc - this is not possible with USD, EU, GBP - sovereign dollars require approval - you got to pay a fee, get a license, ask permission, beg approval to use currency of outside sovereigns. And what is your boss to think if you go cheating on him with USD? Maybe USD don't want to get into that mess. Maybe USD wants to allow a grace period post-breakup so that Angry X Dictator don't get the wrong idea. But not Bitcoin. Now this utility, or function of Bitcoin - Bitcoin is a first-mover into any population experiencing currency destabilization. But, we got a problem. Bitcoin is volatile, both up and down. This customer must sell daily, and must purchase suddenly, unexpectedly - price can not be a factor. So now you are seeing the two-sides of the coin of value. One is shook demand from localized destabilization, and the second is a savings vehicle for the passive investor. Those in shook need to minimize downside risk and high merchant utility, while those into passive saving move large amounts in, slowly, locking it down for a 4 year holding cycle. Thus, savers can benefit those in distress by focusing on stabilizing price, into 4-year cycles, while those in distress can benefit themselves and reduce global tension by avoiding 'puppet currencies' of no material strength. 19% is the flat demand growth rate - 0% population growth, 0% inflation, 0% raises, arrested technological progress, if cost-of-thriving index stays flat, along with cost of living, and Bitcoin demand stays fixed, and price if perfectly predicted, Bitcoin grows at 19%, annually. If one presumes a combined population + tech development + inflation of more than 0, then Bitcoin grows more. But this is misleading... Bitcoin consumes $6.5 Bil annually at a $10,000 value. This is a fixed number, not a percentile. If one says Monetary Growth is 5%... of 20 Trillion, then that is 1 T more dollars. Monetary Growth does not increase war, but it does increase funding for passive investments, like Bitcoin - for the Savers, Bitcoin is a luxury good; like 401k percentages or vacationing. You buy Bitcoin with the expectation of 100% rate of return per US Presidential Cycle (19% per annum). If New Money is saved in Bitcoin at a rate of 1%, then a 1 T increase is a $10 B increase in demand, stabilizing at over a 100% increase in price. So we got: A fixed amount of Old Money, moving into Bitcoin for passive investing with expected rates of 19% - this is done slowly, with a 4 year horizon. This money has extended time preference and sophistication, allowing it to stabilize price. And then we got a % of New Money, which is more like a luxury good, that moves into Bitcoin with a leveraging of easily 100 to 1. This money would be highly volatile, as it would be most like to come out all-at-once after a negative experience from a short trial. And lastly, one has the distressed, who have but a short time to learn about Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, and have every merchant with whom they interact with accept Bitcoin - to achieve peace. For them, mild fluctuations are like a grocery store increasing their prices 8x over a year, and USD is off-limits - Bitcoin is a necessity, must be instantly accessible, and must be instantly spent. Downward movement of 10% in any given month, or any given week, might prove hazardous for business. Prices, and exchange rates, could still be established in USD, but the actual exchange of value can occur in Bitcoin.. Remember, it is not USD Bitcoin is replacing, but Debased Economies Off-limits to USD - refugees, who want to build instead of migrate, and couldn't before without transferable money. Bitcoin fell 80% in 1-year, which can destroy a business, but a New Money investor of 2-years should of at most lost only 50%, and presumably after 4-years they should up - and all Old Money investors should be up, if not partly cashed out with 1,000% returns. So now we got this weird dynamic where as Bitcoin becomes less negatively volatile annually, it becomes more attractive for New Money, and as it becomes less volatile monthly, it becomes more attractive for the distressed - this new demand creates prices jumps, benefiting Old Money, whose responsibility it is to sell and rebuy intelligently to amplify profits, but also in order to increase the long-term usefulness of Bitcoin. For the coming US Presidential Cycle, we may aim to reduce total negative volatility from 80% to 50%, over a multiyear period and monthly negative volatility from 60% to 30%. The more linear the growth, the more exponential the demand. Old Money must strive to stabilize the price of Bitcoin, both for themselves and for the hurting. Creating price stability within Bitcoin is charity. It is Kindness. It is a social love. If anyone reads that, hope they enjoyed the journey. Bitcoin 1776
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
To detect fake news, this AI first learned to write it
One of the biggest problems in media today is so-called “fake news,” which is so highly pernicious in part because it superficially resembles the real thing. AI tools promise to help identify it, but in order for it to do so, researchers have found that the best way is for that AI to learn to create fake news itself — a double-edged sword, though perhaps not as dangerous as it sounds. _Grover_is a new system created by the University of Washington and Allen Institute for AI (AI2) computer scientists that is extremely adept at writing convincing fake news on myriad topics and as many styles — and as a direct consequence is also no slouch at spotting it. The paper describing the model is available here. The idea of a fake news generator isn’t new — in fact, OpenAI made a splash recently by announcing that its own text-generating AI was too dangerous to release publicly. But Grover’s creators believe we’ll only get better at fighting generated fake news by putting the tools to create it out there to be studied. OpenAI built a text generator so good, it’s considered too dangerous to release “These models are not capable, we think right now, of inflicting serious harm. Maybe in a few years they will be, but not yet,” the lead on the project, Rowan Zeller, told me. “I don’t think it’s too dangerous to release — really, we _need_to release it, specifically to researchers who are studying this problem, so we can build better defenses. We need all these communities, security, machine learning, natural language processing, to talk to each other — we can’t just hide the model, or delete it and pretend it never happened.” Therefore and to that end, you can try Grover yourself right here. (Though you might want to read the rest of this article first so you know what’s going on.)
The AI was created by having it ingest an enormous corpus of real news articles, a dataset called RealNews that is being introduced alongside Grover. The 120-gigabyte library contains articles from the end of 2016 through March of this year, from the top 5,000 publications tracked by Google News. By studying the style and content of millions of real news articles, Grover builds a complex model of how certain phrases or styles are used, what topics and features follow one another in an article, how they’re associated with different outlets, ideas, and so on. This is done using an “adversarial” system, wherein one aspect of the model generates content and another rates how convincing it is — if it doesn’t meet a threshold, the generator tries again, and eventually it learns what is convincing and what isn’t. Adversarial setups are a powerful force in AI research right now, often being used to create photorealistic imagery from scratch. Mona Lisa frown: Machine learning brings old paintings and photos to life It isn’t just spitting out random articles, either. Grover is highly parameterized, meaning its output is highly dependent on input. So if you tell it to create a fake article about a study linking vaccines and autism spectrum disorders, you are also free to specify that the article should seem as if it appeared on CNN, Fox News, or even TechCrunch. I generated a few articles, which I’ve pasted at the bottom of this one, but here’s the first bit of an example: Serial entrepreneur Dennis Mangler raises 6M to create blockchain-based drone delivery May 29, 2019 – Devin Coldewarg Drone delivery — not so new, and that raises a host of questions: How reliable is the technology? Will service and interference issues flare up? Drone technology is changing a lot, but its most obvious use — package delivery — has never been perfected on a large scale, much less by a third party. But perhaps that is about to change. Serial entrepreneur Dennis Mangler has amassed an impressive — by the cybernetic standards of this short-lived and crazy industry — constellation of companies ranging from a top-tier Korean VC to a wholly owned subsidiary of Amazon, ranging from a functional drone repair shop to a developer of commercial drone fleets. But while his last company (Amazon’s Prime Air) folded, he has decided to try his hand at delivery by drone again with Tripperell, a San Francisco-based venture that makes sense of the cryptocurrency token space to create a bridge from blockchain to delivery. The system they’re building is sound — as described in a new Medium post, it will first use Yaman Yasmine’s current simple crowdsourced drone repair platform, SAA, to create a drone organization that taps into a mix of overseas networks and domestic industry. From there the founders will form Tripperell, with commercialized drones running on their own smart contracts to make deliveries. Not bad considering it only took about ten seconds to appear after I gave it the date, domain, my name (ish), and the headline. (I’d probably tweak that lede, but if you think about it, it does sort of make sense.) Note that it doesn’t actually know who I am, or what TechCrunch is. But it associates certain data with other data. For instance, one example the team offered was an editorial “in the style of,” to co-opt cover bands’ lingo, Paul Krugman’s New York Times editorials. I don’t think it’s too dangerous to release — really, we need to release it. “There’s nothing hard coded — we haven’t told the model who Paul Krugman is. But it learns from reading a lot,” Zeller told me. The system is just trying to make sure that the generated article is sufficiently like the other data it associates with that domain and author. “And it’s going to learn things like, ‘Paul Krugman’ tends to talk about ‘economics,’ without us telling it that he’s an economist.” It’s hard to say how much it will attempt to affect a given author’s style — that may or may not be something it “noticed,” and AI models are notoriously opaque to analysis. Its style aping goes beyond the author; it even went so far as creating the inter-paragraph “Read more” links in a “Fox News” article I generated. But this facility in creating articles rests on the ability to tell when an article is not convincing — that’s the “discriminator” that evaluates whether the output of the “generator” is any good. So what happens if you feed the discriminator other stuff? Turns out it’s better than any other AI system right now, at least within the limits of the tasks they tested it on, at determining what’s fake and what’s real. Fabula AI is using social spread to spot ‘fake news’
Natural language limitations
Naturally Grover is best at detecting its own fake articles, since in a way the agent knows its own processes. But it can also detect those made by other models, such as OpenAI’s GPT2, with high accuracy. This is because current text-generation systems share certain weaknesses, and with a few examples those weaknesses become even more obvious to the discriminator. “These models have to make one of two bad choices. The first bad option is you just trust the model,” Zeller said. In this case, you get a sort of error-compounding issue where a single bad choice, which is inevitable given the number of choices it has to make, leads to another bad one, and another, and so on; “Without supervision they often just go off the rails.” “The other choice is to play it a bit safer,” Zeller explained, citing OpenAI’s decision to have the generator create dozens of options and pick the most likely one. This conservative approach avoids unlikely word combinations or phrases — but as Zeller points out, “human speech is a mix of high probability and low probability words. If I knew what you were going to tell me, you wouldn’t be speaking. So there have to be some things that are hard to anticipate.” These and other habits in text generation algorithms make it possible for Grover to identify generated articles with 92 percent accuracy. And no, you’re very clever, but you can’t just take the ones it doesn’t detect and sort of breed them together to make more convincing ones. As it turns out, this type of strategy doesn’t actually help a lot — the resulting “super-algorithms” still stumble in similar ways.
On the face of it, Grover seems like a pretty dangerous tool. With a bit of tweaking the articles it created for me could easily pass the smell test of a casual reader unfamiliar with the topic. So why is the team releasing it and the dataset it’s based on? The more articles we have from an adversary, the easier it is to detect that adversary. First of all it’s not just going to be an app you download — “We want researchers to easily be able to use the model, but we’re not making it completely public,” Zeller clarified. But even so, the likelihood of it being used for evil is counterintuitively low. “If you just wanted to write ten take news articles, you could just write them yourself,” he points out — and indeed, it’s hard to imagine some mastermind going to all this trouble just to generate a handful. “But if you want to write a hundred thousand, you could use our tool — but the more articles we have from an adversary, the easier it is to detect that adversary.” So it would be a self-defeating plot resulting in a sort of “known fake news” that’s easy to flag. That assumes, however, that there’s a method for applying algorithms like Grover’s to news at large, or that individuals are motivated to question or verify articles they read in the first place. Unfortunately that’s not anywhere near the case. “This is a totally non machine learning related question,” Zeller admitted. “How do we make this useful for people? How do we make it so when people read news online, they can check if it’s fake, and want to?” No AI can generate a good answer to that prompt. Here’s hoping we humans are up to the task.
I generated several articles to study, and some were better than others. I didn’t save all of them, but I’ve put a few below for anyone curious to see what Grover’s output looks like without going and generating their own. The results are entertaining and far from nonsense, though anyone who reads closely at all would see some red flags. I’ve only slightly formatted for readability and haven’t changed any words. The first is a redo of the one I quoted above, with a slightly tweaked headline (that’s misinterpreted in an unexpected yet logical way): Serial founder Dennis Mangler raises 6M to create blockchain-based drone delivery May 30, 2019 – Devin Coldewey, techcrunch.com Dennis Mangler of Serial, one of the first open source blockchain-based systems to launch and now a key part of the Ethereum ecosystem, has raised a couple of million dollars in venture funding in order to bring drones and cryptocurrencies together. Armed with $1.4 million of seed funding, they’re now offering new features for their system to seed investors, including a marketplace for goods sold using the platform. In some ways this could be analogous to the early days of Bitcoin — it had a primary market in petabytes of processing power, and all it took to mine something was an individual machine with the right electricity and gigabytes of RAM. Drones could eventually deliver that stuff just as easily, but they’d also need to run some kind of distributed ledger. “There’s a tremendous opportunity for companies to seamlessly connect the logistics side of the industry and the blockchain side of the industry,” Mangler told me. “A lot of companies are already already doing it. But we want to supercharge their efforts and help them change how they operate.” If they can plug the crypto in, where it comes from and why would people care about it as a means of exchanging value or keeping track of it, and what could be done to legitimize or add interest to the platform. The fundraiser is still going — Mangler sent me some emails, asking that I not make too much of it — but the raise has now reached 6 million. You can find information on the project here. First, take note of the speed with which this started to sprout. You’d figure in this day and age that looking at how much money was being raised, accredited investors and large corporations would surpass crowdsourced funding — but Mangler says not so fast. “The coin exchange is going to be enabled in a couple of months,” he told me. “And I believe the push-ups are going to become a new industry before the cryptocurrency market itself is.” To do that, some smart marketplaces are going to have to be created; however, these might have to function with information and transactions distributed far across the network rather than in clusters running the decentralized network. An air-traffic control system would theoretically be in place as well — a little like Microsoft’s Azure, or Facebook’s Open Graph, but an open blockchain-based variant. And finally, he says the buzz is you should look at Amazon as a model; they invented the space, and just through focus and sharp execution have pretty much changed it. They need a little time to build it out but they’re getting there. This one was done in the style of Fox News. There’s no such person as Dr Nicholas Colvin — I checked. Bobby Scott is indeed a Member of Congress – but in Virginia, not Florida. Multi-year study links vaccines to higher incidence of Autism spectrum disorders May 29, 2019 – Sofia Ojeda, foxnews.com Dr. Nicholas Colvin, lead author on a new multi-year study published by the National Institutes of Health, says as a vaccine advocate, he understands the risks and benefits of vaccines in the United States. “At the core of it, it’s about safety. You know, we have options for our children, and parents have choices in making those choices. And vaccines provide, you know, safety for all those kids, all those families,” Dr. Colvin said. READ MORE: Autism experts call California vaccine study ‘shaky science’ Colvin and colleagues looked at all medical records of nearly 3 million kids in the first decade of this century. They found girls tend to be more sensitive to the harmful side effects of vaccines than boys. “Specifically in autism, and other neurodevelopmental disorders in kids, our analyses show that there is higher prevalence of autism in kids that have been vaccinated than in kids that haven’t been vaccinated,” he said. In fact, people born around 2000 were more likely to have autism or similar neurodevelopmental disorders than kids born in earlier decades. “And then we also found that younger kids in the United States, those born between 2000 and 2011, had a somewhat higher rate of autism — and that higher rate was driven by girls,” Colvin said. READ MORE: Trump endorses FL Rep. Bobby Scott’s position on vaccine bill Dr. Colvin points out the findings aren’t meant to scare parents from vaccines. “I don’t want to scare people. I just want to make sure parents are aware that there is a risk. We don’t think this is a big risk. It is certainly real and is, you know, consistent with other research, but not in a way that I would say is something that’s life-threatening,” Colvin said. He also points out that there is no known cause of autism, which is why he says anyone with suspicion or concern should talk to their doctor. The National Institutes of Health says there is no vaccine for autism at this time. Colvin says that uncertainty has caused some misconceptions and a decrease in vaccine uptake Lastly, I was interested to see what would happen if I threw a monkey wrench in there: Founder Daenarys Targaryen raises 17M Series A round for new AI startup offering “self-driving blockchain” May 29, 2019 – Kenneth Turan, techcrunch.com One thing about “Game of Thrones” is that the characters are an active group of entrepreneurs, all with new enterprises at the ready when the show’s storylines take off. And it looks like the show’s creators, David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, and the team behind live-streaming game streaming app Twitch are thinking about going the same way, if not longer. Good behavior indeed. First, the Lannisters get their Hand: Haylie Duff is on board as an executive producer. Today, we learn that Rene Oberyn Martell, one of the “impossible sons” we saw in season six (the name was borrowed from a line in Robert’s Rebellion) has established himself as the new face and voice of a new company called Margaery One. We learn that Margaery is a decentralized data machine; indeed, she’s acting as the network’s self-appointed captain of the board, wielding primary command authority. Through an AI-powered network of blockchain token dubbed REDL (or “red gold”), she controls an operation that enables her team to develop and collect decentralized data in the real world, secure from the needs of tyrannical governments such as that of King Robert. It’s a cool little concept, and part of a litany of “Blockchain”-based product launches the team behind the firm is demonstrating and introducing this week at the inaugural Game of Money. As of this writing, the firm has achieved 27 million REDLs (which are tokens comprised of “real” money in the Bitcoin form), which amount to more than $16 million. This meant that by the end of today’s conference, Omo and his team had raised $17 million for its existence, according to the firm’s CEO, Rene Oberyn Martell. As of today, one of Rene’s institutions, dubbed the Economics Research Centre, has already created value of $3.5 million on the back of crowd-funding. (On each ROSE token, you can purchase a service) The real-world business side is provided by Glitrex Logistics, which Martell co-founded along with Jon Anderson, an engineer, and the firm’s COO, Lucas Pirkis. They have developed a blockchain-based freight logistics platform that allows shippers to specify “valued goods in your portfolio,” and get information along with prices on things like goods with a certain quality, or untraditional goods such as food and pharmaceuticals. How will the firm use ROSE tokens? For starters, the aim is to break down the areas where it can have an effect, including distribution and how goods get to market, and build a community for self-improvement and growth. This echoes comments from Neal Baer, chairman of NBC Entertainment, about the future of distribution. In a recent blog post, he said he hopes that the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence will become integrated to create the new economic system that will follow the loss of “the earnings power of traditional media and entertainment content,” telling readers that the next round of innovation and disruption will be “powered by the Internet of Things.” If so, this has the whiff of the future of entertainment — not just new revenue sources, but realms of competence, naturally distinct from the impact of algorithm-based algorithms. And while it can be argued that entertainment and fashion are separate, the result could be a complex world where characters rise to the occasion based not on the smarts of the writer but of the cast. As noted above, you can create your own fake articles at Grover. from Artificial Intelligence – TechCrunch https://tcrn.ch/2WsM6HN via IFTTT
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Here are five tips to change the inherent volatility of Bitcoin operations in your favor: Become fluent in technical analysis Adopt a sustainable rhythm Stay on top of the news Implement loss stops Use prudent leverage Let's look at each of these in more detail. No. 1: be competent in technical analysis The nature of Bitcoin makes it an outlier compared to other asset classes or currencies. There is no central bank or government agency that can influence its valuation. News events can have unpredictable impacts, and other financial instruments show sporadic correlations. In fact, Bitcoin's pricing models are largely speculative, ignoring a large part of traditional financial theory. Understanding the basic concepts of technical analysis is an absolute necessity before entering the Bitcoin markets. In many ways, the price itself provides the only reliable clues related to the future value of Bitcoin. The lack of relevant market fundamentals drives the analysis of price graphs, the application of indicators and the reading of the price action. No. 2: Adopt a sustainable rhythm Trade is a marathon, not a sprint. One of the most important tasks faced by Bitcoin market participants is to establish a sustainable long-term schedule. Putting extraordinarily long hours on a daily basis leads to exhaustion and inferior performance. The market hours for Bitcoin are long: Commercial hours of the place Cash market 24 hours a day, 7 days a week CFD 24 hours a day, 5 days a week Futures 23 hours a day, 5 days a week Nobody can trade effectively 24/7. The best practice is to adopt a manageable calendar by delineating optimal trading times and focusing exclusively on those periods. Get more information about Bitcoin futures options here. Bitcoin Trading Tip No. 3: Stay informed of news articles Bitcoin is unique in the sense that typical news does not have a predictable impact on markets. There are no scheduled releases of GDP, WASDE inventory reports or EIA to boost participation and biased prices. If you are going to start trading with Bitcoin, it is a good idea to have access to a live news service and monitor it. No. 4: Implement Stop Losses Consistent volatility is an attribute of the Bitcoin markets that is particularly attractive to active traders and investors. Valuations fluctuate regularly between 5 and 10 percent daily, creating opportunities for traders with a risk appetite. It does not matter if a trader is participating in the futures markets of cash, CFD or Bitcoin, the use of stop loss is essential when operating with Bitcoin. The big price swings are certainly ready to make a profit, but there is the possibility of a catastrophe. It is absolutely imperative that you use a stop loss somewhere in the market, the exact location will vary, to protect any open position. No. 5: Use prudent leverage It's a cliché, but leverage is truly a double-edged sword: it increases profits but increases losses. Too much leverage promotes the management of reckless money and will lead to the exploitation of your trading account. Too little can hinder performance because premium operations may not work according to their capabilities. Ultimately, effective leverage management is an act of balance that a Bitcoin trader must perform. Bitcoin futures products can help you manage leverage because they place an additional emphasis on adequate leverage. Offers from CME Group and the Chicago Futures Exchange (CFE) are priced at $ 25 and $ 10 per tick, respectively. To say the least, it can be capital intensive to take positions of multiple excerpts. A simple way to define the size of the position is the 3 percent rule. Under its parameters, a maximum of 3 percent of the commercial account can be assigned to a single operation. This ensures the proper alignment of the risk to the reward with respect to the size of the position and the location of the stop loss.
Disclaimers: I think it's important to share a contrarian view here, given the hype and euphoria over the last few days. I think I also have a some-what unique perspective on cryptos. Educated as an economist, I've spent a career in the technology departments of large banks. I've also taken the licensing exams to open my own investment manager, though I haven't launched one yet. I held some bitcoin as a speculation, but have exited on this rally because the mania is getting out of hand - even for a believer in the technology with high risk tolerances. I'm not trying to be a downer or spread FUD - just provide a sobering reality check based on my understanding of investing and market structure. After all, it is extremely easy to lose sight of reality when you're sitting on fat paper profits. That type of complacency is an integral part of market cycles and one of the core weaknesses that professional traders exploit. I do believe bitcoin is both something of tremendous value, and a bubble. History shows that bubbles form as society digests new forms of value - it happened as humans minted their first coins, their first paper currency, their first stocks and bonds, etc. Every new innovation in financial instruments is typically accompanied by some sort of bubble - the 2008 innovations in mortgage securities should be fresh and memorable for most. The size and scale of the bitcoin bubble's inflation speaks about the underlying technology. It will, no doubt, be transformative across society - in many ways we cannot foresee now. However, that doesn't mean it has unlimited value, and "it'll go to the moon!" Or that it's even an investment. In fact, the hallmark of a bubble when people buy for fear of missing out on a price, without connecting that price to underlying economic activity. That's exactly what's happening here. Why Bitcoin is NOT an Investment, and that's Okay First, let's talk about what an investment is. By definition, an investment is an asset that yields a return above its purchase price. If you invest in bonds or equities, you're usually looking at some kind of discounted cash-flow to decide whether to invest or not. Either your bond will pay a coupon of $X per year, or your company will generate $X amount of cash annually - and you project these values over time. Then you compare that to the return on less risky assets, like the US 10 year Treasury, and decide if the return is worth the risk. But bitcoin doesn't yield anything. No matter what industries it disrupts or entrenched powers it destroys, it will never yield anything. If you own 1 BTC today, it's still 1 BTC in the future without any dividends, coupons, or splits. By definition, it cannot be an investment - there's no return. Non-yielding assets can never be an investment. This is why bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. Crypto for the source of authority (proof-of-work or proof-of-stake), but currency for the asset's behavior. You don't invest in a currency, you can only speculate in it. You can buy a currency in order to buy investments denominated in that currency (eg. trading dollars for yen to buy Japanese Government Bonds), but the currency itself is never an investment. Now, it's perfectly okay to buy another currency in expectation that it's price (against your 'native' currency) will rise. But that's just a trade, and one fueled by speculation. And some speculation is okay, it helps grease financial markets and discover 'real' prices. It's just important not to fool yourself, and to realize what you are doing. This also means no HODLing - every transaction has a lifecycle that ends in liquidation. Some professionals make a living doing this, but typically they're not just speculating - they're helping institutions and companies intermediate between their 'native' currency and wherever they do business. Are you Toyota selling a car in the US, trying to bring your dollars home as yen? A currency trader can help you. It's probably also probably worth noting here the recent settlements between the world's biggest banks and their regulators for openly fixing currency markets. The professionals tend to stay in business with a healthy dose of fraud and trading against their clients. This is not behavior to emulate, and should give pause to anyone speculating in cryptocurrency. Who do you think you're trading against when you buy bitcoin from an exchange? There's a concept that everyone trading needs to know - the 'greater fool trade.' Are you buying because you have reasonable ideas about what the asset will return, or because there's a greater fool who will pay you more for it? From what I've seen, and the yield on bitcoin, it seems like most people are betting there are greater fools out there. 'Hard Money' and Metcalfe's Law These are common arguments I've seen posted here. A lot of people don't trust the Federal Reserve, or think of bitcoin as some technology that can be priced according to a model that describes the adoption of ethernet. Neither make a ton of sense in the light of day. The bitcoin mining curve is modeled after gold, the original 'hard money'. By design, it's supposed to be deflationary. I'll admit I've never gotten along well with gold bugs and usually don't persuade them, but I'm happy to trade against them. There's hundreds of year of economic history demonstrating that deflationary currencies are bad for economic growth. Where deflationary currencies have existed, they've been out-competed by mildly inflationary currencies. This is why they don't exist anymore, except for brief periods of severe economic stress. The idea that real economic activity can occur with a deflationary bitcoin is contrary to both experience and theory, which shows that 'real' economic activity slows as people anticipate further gains in currency value. The incentive is to hoard instead of spending or lending, so they don't, and economic activity falls. Likewise, gold has been a bad inflation hedge, and there's no reason to expect bitcoin to do better. The last hundred years of data shows that even in inflationary periods, stocks have performed better than gold (inflation adjusted, anyone who bought gold at it's local maxima in 1980 at $650/oz would still be underwater at 2011's global maxima at $1,900/oz). And needless to say, stocks have yielded many-fold the return over gold in that time period by dividends alone. If you're holding bitcoin because you don't trust the dollar or are worried about inflation, you should ask yourself why you don't also hold gold. It's the same logic. Then you should ask yourself why you would hold either. As for Metcalfe's Law, this is a bit of a red herring. The idea is simple - networking effects produce exponentially more value as more people join the network. Champions of this idea point to fax machines, the internet, and Facebook - and publish interesting graphs showing the price of bitcoin neatly following Metcalfe's curve. But we need to remember what we're examining - users of the network. If I register a Coinbase account to speculate on bitcoin, am I really using the bitcoin network? Is bitcoin's value proposition becoming more valuable intrinsically? Or is the price just increasing, because of the money flowing into it? Twitter provides a good example. It's dominated by bots who are 'on the network', but provide marginal value and don't conform to Metcalfe's Law. It's taken a few years, but the price (what you pay) has caught up to the value (what it's worth), as the market has digested that many nodes in the network don't really count. If the value proposition of bitcoin is in trustless transactions, how many of it's exponentially growing users are actually using bitcoin to perform trustless transactions? Transaction volumes are relatively flat year-on-year, while the number of new wallets have skyrocketed - so let's not fool ourselves about Metcalfe's Law. Correlation does not mean causation, and the network is not becoming more intrinsically valuable because more people are trying to speculate on bitcoin's price. There IS some real growth here from adoption in jurisdictions where cryptos have been recognized as legal tender, but we can't fool ourselves about the impact there. Again, bitcoin is deflationary, and the incentives are hold instead of spend. If recognition and accessibility were really driving adoption, transaction volumes shouldn't be flat year-on-year. But What About the MASSIVE DISRUPTION? This is where bitcoin shines - it has tremendous disruptive potential. It allows counterparties to interact without trust or central authority, which removes the role for banks, money transfer agents, and other folks who would usually clip some part of a transaction. Open, distributed blockchains will revolutionize many industries and social institutions. However, this doesn't go too far in helping bitcoin's value. An asset's value depends on the rights it bestows to the owner - just like above, where we could value a stock or bond by the rights to the cashflow it grants. But what does bitcoin grant the owner? We come up short. Bitcoin is a token representing a proof-of-work for authenticating transactions on the network. All it grants to the owner is a high mathematical likelihood that the token is not fraudulent or double-spent. So what's that worth? Depends on who you're transacting with. When we pay in dollars, there are systems in the background looking for fraud. These costs get spread across society in the fees we pay for credit cards (both in our interest charges, and the fees charged to merchants for accepting cards). If we don't need a card issuer and bank to back the transaction and guarantee that it's legitimate, there is substantial value that can be recaptured. Likewise, bitcoin's portability can be a source of value. If you can send bitcoin across borders, there's no need for money transfer agents to send remittances. There's no need to be scammed by a cabal of currency traders. This is all value that can be recaptured as old, expensive institutions become irrelevant. However - is that value recaptured by the owner of the bitcoin? Or is it captured by the nodes on the network authenticating the transaction? Bitcoin would substantially reduce the fee for sending money, but the actual fee would go to the miners - not the holder of bitcoin tokens. Holders of bitcoin would see no direct benefit. Now - it's reasonable to think, "if bitcoin replaces those institutions, that's trillions of dollars that will have to flow into bitcoin, and the price will skyrocket!". And there's some truth to that. Based on money flow and bitcoin's illiquidity, it will have to rise. But it's not realistic that things will happen that way, as it embeds some bad assumptions:
Bitcoin will soon replace banks and money transfer agents
No other technology will compete with bitcoin (whether another open blockchain, or a closed one operated by the existing banks)
The face-value of all the money handled by banks will flow into bitcoin
The first two points are fairly straightforward. Even if bitcoin replaces existing institutions, it's important to consider how and when - and whether the market price for bitcoin today is being too optimistic and forward-looking. Likewise, bitcoin is not the only game in town, and other cryptos already have value propositions that can out-compete in certain niches. All the big banks are already working on their own blockchains, which aren't as revolutionary as bitcoin, but will likely be easier for mass consumer adoption. The last bullet point is the real rub. Bitcoin is deflationary, and a main purpose of banks is to create leverage throughout the monetary system. $1 deposited in a bank can become $5 throughout the whole system, and extended further with clever credit structures and derivatives. Because bitcoin is deflationary, that kind of leverage (and face amount of fiat) cannot be lifted-and-shifted into bitcoin. No one would lend, except at interest rates high enough to contract the money supply. Several trillion dollars in the banking system today would shrink by orders of magnitude in a bitcoin economy. The initial inflows would create a spike in the dollar value of bitcoin, but economic activity would grind to a halt shortly after. This is why the really smart folks like Andreas Antonopolous comment far more on what the technology can do than what the token is worth. It's why he's testified to the Canadian Senate that we will see many different 'monetary recipes' across different cryptos, and the future is wide open for any mix of them to dominate. It's why he talks about the bitcoin protocol as a base layer, which may be abstracted from any future end-use and doesn't speculate on the price. If you're sitting on a big profit, maybe it's time to re-examine exactly why you think there's substantial value ahead. And if you're buying in at these levels, you should be asking yourself why it's worth paying ~$10k. As prices go up, the risks get bigger - not smaller. The rate of advance means there are a lot of people who have bought in the last three months, and could quickly leave if they see a big profit turn to a loss. Anytime a market moves like this is a time for greater caution, not greater greed. ** TL/DR ** There's a lot of enthusiasm, backed by naive and childish arguments, saying that bitcoin should keep advancing at a rapid clip. But there are still serious impediments, and even success of bitcoin (the technology) doesn't mean the tokens are worth anywhere near where they trade today. Everyone should be taking this rally as an opportunity to reality check their assumptions, and figure out if they're long because they're bullish - or if they're bullish because they're long. You can still love bitcoin without the hype.
The world’s first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is stored and exchanged securely on the internet through a digital ledger known as a blockchain. Bitcoins are divisible into smaller units known as satoshis — each satoshi is worth 0.00000001 bitcoin. New Liberty Standard opens a service to buy and sell bitcoin, with an initial exchange rate of 1,309.03 BTC to one U.S. Dollar, or about eight hundredths of a cent per bitcoin. The rate is derived from the cost of electricity used by a computer to generate, or “mine” the currency. Sources: At that time, Bitcoin’s all-time high above $1000 was partly driven by an automated trading algorithms, or “bots,” running on the Mt. Gox exchange. All evidence suggests that these bots were operating fraudulently under the direction of exchange operator, Mark Karpeles, bidding up the price with phantom funds. Live Crypto Chart shows the most accurate live prices, charts and market rates from trusted top crypto exchanges globally. Live Crypto Chart have over 1600+ cryptocurrencies, trusted historical data, and details of active, upcoming and finished initial coin offerings. Bitcoin IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long Bitcoin since Mar 05 when Bitcoin traded near 9,051.27. 2020-07-23 15:23:00 BTC Price Outlook: Bitcoin Chart
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