For your amusement. 1.
PoS concepts and development is looking good for scaling to 10000+ tx/sec. https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/53 Fact:
Sharding is already proven and used by other databases to distribute load. Staking a node will be relative safe way to earn ETH interest. Speculation:
Based on gitter chatter and Vitalik postings the initial node number will be 256 with maximum bond of 60,000 eth for each node. A contract lottery system will allow even those with only a small stake (1200 ETH) to be part of a node bond with a 4 month lock placed on requesting a withdrawal and receiving the bond back. This could potentially lock up 15.36M eth or 15.3% - 19.2% of all eth
depending on when the PoS hard fork occurs at a total ETH supply of 80M or 100M. 2.
New businesses being created on top of ethereum. Fact:
Makerdao, Slock.it, Augur, etc Speculation:
Investing in these businesses with ETH will further reduce the ETH supply going to exchanges driving up the ETH price. Also network effect if BTC flows into these DAOs/DACs. 3.
Increasing awareness in other cryptocurrency groups of the advantages of ethereum. Fact:
Contract DAO holding funds (6400 eth) for building a Dogecoin <=> Ethereum connection with Doge becoming a token on the Ethereum blockchain http://ethdoge-bounty-status.meteor.com/ Speculation:
More funds will move from other alt coins to ETH. Tokens on the ethereum network become actively traded. 4.
The $ value of ETH is determined by two main exchanges, Poloniex and Kraken. Fact:
Only a small percent of ETH (13%) are on exchanges. Wild swings in price due to manipulation by BTC whales. Speculation:
Total ETH amount on exchanges will show slow growth and traders will switch from pricing ETH in BTC to pricing ETH in $ as it becomes easier to directly buy ETH with fiat. The slow move away from BTC as the main trading pair will reduce price manipulation. 5.
Limitations of the bitcoin code and governance are evident even to the most ardent supporter. Fact:
Centralization of Bitcoin has occurred due to Chinese miners having low running costs. Hearn has publicly exposed the main issues https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.szu8qr1ie Speculation:
Bitcoin remains a dead man walking and more disillusioned bitcoin supporters move their BTC to ETH driving up the ETH price. 6.
In most countries the regulators are taking a wait and see approach to allow blockchain innovation to occur. Fact:
UK gov has release a favourable report on blockchain innovation https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/distributed-ledger-technology-blackett-review Speculation:
UK recognises ETH as a currency similar to BTC for taxation purposes and other regulators follow. 7.
Ethereum Foundation working on a sustainable funding model. Fact:
The EthDev wallet has 1.75M ETH left. The agreement with Shapeshift to integrate it into the wallet will see a steady income stream returning to the Foundation. https://www.reddit.com/ethereum/comments/43a22s/ethereum_wallet_beta_6_released/czgsy5t Speculation:
The Foundation begins to receive fiat investment, more agreements similar to the Shapeshift one provide increased revenues, The EthDev wallet stabilises around 1-1.25M and also stakes a node(s) as an additional income stream. 8.
Active developers funded by the Foundation or through private funding rapidly improving the code beyond Homestead. Fact:
The first light client sent transactions on the main net on 27 January.
zsfelfoldi The first transaction sent from a light client :smile: https://etherchain.org/tx/0x64f87fe41cf70d24b3aca50874df2a08c39786bd3f9eade9c5760f0c73921203 Speculation:
Release of light clients for computers and mobile devices will onboard many new users beyond the innovators and early adopters. No need to download the blockchain! 9.
Total Ether supply is inflating at slightly more than 5 ETH per block depending on uncles. Fact:
This PoW inflation will stop with the switch to PoS. Speculation:
In theory, there is no immediate need to keep adding new ETH in PoS like PoW as fees might provide enough incentive for staking. Because ETH is divisible down to wei (1,000,000,000,000,000,000 wei = 1 ETH) and mirrors SI units (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/33
) where there is a 1000 fold difference between units it should be easy to code switch users to new units as the price increases. For example, over time and as the network effect increases: ETH is the default currency until price hits $1000 (innovators & early adopters period) mETH (finney) then becomes the default currency at 1 mETH = $1 until it reaches $1000 (early adopters and early majority period) uETH (szabo) then becomes the default currency at 1 uETH = $1 until it reaches $1000 (early majority period) etc Bear thoughts
Flaws in the code and loss of ETH causes loss of confidence in ethereum. Scams on the ethereum network produce bad press and public negativity similar to what has happened with bitcoin. Established players (banks, etc) put pressure on regulators to restrict the growth of decentralised currencies and platforms. Something better than ethereum comes along, private forks or other. Reality thoughts
Wake up and get back to coding those Dapps.
7 Blackett Review 2016, 30. 8 Lessig, L. (1999). Code and Other Laws of Cyberspace. New York, Basic Books. 9 In this paper, I adopt the approach taken by the Blackett Review, referring to the technical code of distributed ledger systems as including both the software (computer code) and protocols, since both are required for distributed ledgers Read our report on the future of distributed ledger (or block chain) technology https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/distributed-ledger-technology-blackett-review Blockchains are on the top of the Gartner Hype Cycle 2016 and many start-ups are integrating blockchains into their technology portfolio. While blockchains have emerged in the context of financial applications, non-financial application areas are of interest as well. In this paper, modum.io is presented, a start-up that uses IoT (Internet of Things) sensor devices leveraging blockchain Blockchain technology: emerging from the shadowsby Philip Nolan and Mark Adair, Mason Hayes & CurranRelated ContentBlockchain technology brings a unique opportunity for governments, banks and the private sector to make electronic payments, execute contracts, provide secure online registers, and facilitate other transactions more efficiently, while reducing fraud, corruption and errors. Bitcoin’s blockchain, or requiring the bundling of a range of ledger entries into a block. 5 A tamper-evident ledger may in some cases be a more accurate description than immutable, see Bacon, Michels, Millard, and Singh, supra note 3.
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