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I calculated Ethereum's Stock-to-Flow value

I calculated Ethereum's Stock-to-Flow value
I just read two interesting posts from PlanB on:
And tried to calculate Ethereum's Stock-to-Flow value as well. It's a calculation to show the scarcity of an asset.
S2F (Stock-to-flow) = stock / flow
Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves. Flow is the yearly production.
As a reference here is a comparison from PlanB's post:
https://preview.redd.it/16qw2g2zsaz41.png?width=614&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c07cc3e218740dc1213aac1ec34fb6cccd4212e
Based on Ether's total supply and yearly issuance, I calculated the SF value from 2015 to 2021.

Year Total supply (end of the year) Yearly issuance S2F Note
2015 76140218 4054720 18.7 Data from Etherscan
2016 87462107 11321889 7.725045297 Data from Etherscan
2017 96692242 9230135 10.47571237 Data from Etherscan
2018 104124058 7431815 14.01058208 Data from Etherscan
2019 109094019 4969962 21.95067637 Data from Etherscan
2020 113000000 4000000 28.25 Data from Etherscan
2021 115000000 2000000 57.5 2 million if almost everyone stakes
2022 117000000 2000000 58.5 2 million if almost everyone stakes

Gold has the highest SF 62, which means it takes 62 years of production to get current gold stock, for Ether the estimated SF is 58.5 in 2022. After the recent halving, this is 50 for Bitcoin.

Important disclaimer:
Numbers are rough estimates, I got the data from etherscan and Cointelegraph (see them below) and aggregated in a spreadsheet. This calculation is far from perfect, I'm not a data analyst just a random dude killing the time on Sunday, so pls bear with me.
If you have any suggestions to further improve it or you have more exact numbers regarding supply, issuance, pls let me know and I will update the sheet.

Source:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-20-issuance-will-be-2-million-a-year-at-most-says-vitalik
https://etherscan.io/charts#marketData
submitted by tamastorok to ethfinance [link] [comments]

The White Dragon : A Canadian Dragon Portfolio

Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself
Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund.
This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please.
So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account"
For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute.

TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls.

The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context.
Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down.
The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power"
If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin!
You can see how powerful this is.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here: https://www.artemiscm.com/welcome#research
Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could.
The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this.
As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time.
I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio.

Physical PMs 22%
I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical.
I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars)
to gold as the ratio tightens up.
If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section.
If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose.
One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That
unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later)

Commodity Trend (CTA) 10%
https://youtu.be/tac8sWPZW0w
Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at.
COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash.
COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December
If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at
KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag.
Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk.
Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff.
Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value.
RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want.
NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on.
I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages.

EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend.
If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still.

Fixed Income/Bonds 10%

Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value.
HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio
IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly
TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly.

Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below)
This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that.
VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either.
FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend.
ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward.

I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack
A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to.
The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised.
SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared.
When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc.
SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ.
Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order)
MMX
SAND
PAAS
PGM
AUM
AG
MUX
RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto
KTN
KL
Options/Volatility: varies
So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore.
Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild.
If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options
its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares.
But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and kaboom...my account gets blown up
So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do.

Backspreads
https://youtu.be/pvX5_rkm5x0
https://youtu.be/-jTvWOGVsK8
https://youtu.be/muYjjm934iY

So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX.
I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going.
Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly.
I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later.
As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
submitted by ChudBuntsman to pmstocks [link] [comments]

MU and XLNX beat

For Trading JUNE 30TH
Pending Home Sales +44.3% in May
BA Adds 168 Points to the DJIA
MU & XLNX Beat, SPG Reaffirms Div.
Today’s market got off to a good start based on the futures, and within the first few minutes started a selloff to the low of the day (+70) and then turned on a dime and started higher again and by 10:00 were had hit +450. We moved sideways to higher until the last 15 minutes we had rallied to a new high and closed +580.25 (2.32%), NASDAQ +116.93 (1.2%), S&P 500 +44.19 (1.47%), the Russell +42.43 (3.08%) and the Transports +246.90 (2.8%). Market internals were good with the NYSE A/D 3:1 and NAZ 2:1, while NYSE A/D volume was better than 5:1. Overall volume was about unchanged from Friday. The DJIA was 29:1 with the biggest mover BA +168 DP’s and the others a far distant AAPL +56, HD +35 and GS 20 DP’s). The Pending Home sales this morning added to the market as soon as it was released. Homebuilders were up anywhere from 3%, (LEN & DHI) to 8.8% (BZH & TOL), and the ETF, XHB finished $43.45 +1.67 (4%).
We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .66, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $2.12.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/AeKKwW1lmKw SECTORS: The news of COVID-19 surges in cases to new highs has caused the states of both Texas and Florida to halt the progression of their re-openings. In fact, both states have closed bars since it is a place for younger people to gather and the 25 -39 group shows the biggest increases in cases. There are states that have seen increases of up to 300% from where they were when the re-openings began. For a look at how ALL the states are doing use this link: https://rt.live/ There were 2 stars in the market today; the obvious brightest star was Boeing (BA) on the strength of it starting FAA piloted flights of the 737 MAX for re-certification. The flights seem to be okay, but the flights are just the tip of the iceberg since all of the data now has to be analyzed. I’m sure it will be a little while before we hear anything substantive, but it was a start after over 440 days of grounding (March 2019). But buyers wouldn’t be stopped after the recent decline from the recovery high of $234 to close $170.01 Friday. The stock opened $181.65 and traded up to $194.50 before closing on the highs at $194.49 +24.48 (14.4%). The second star was FB, embroiled in the cancellation of ads but some of the world’s biggest and best companies due to racist and hate oriented content. Last Tuesday before the advertisers started pulling ads the stock had made a new all-time high at $245 but started lower the next day. On Friday Unilever and KO had pulled (adding to the list of medium sized firms) and the stock fell to $215. This morning Starbucks adding to the list and the stock fell to $207.11 before the market took off (see above) and by 10:45 it had crossed unchanged and kept moving to close $220.64 +4.56 (2.1%) but $13 from the low. We’ll have to see what it can do when it gets to supply between $224-226. Earning from two chip makers both beat, and both gave solid guidance. MU finished $52.11 +2.96 (6%), while XLNX was $98.47 +6.50 (7%). Simon Property Group (SPG) reaffirmed its earnings quoting the fact that 199 of their 204 properties across 37 states are open and operating. They also declared their dividend and added that they expect to pay $6.00 in cash for 2020. The stock had closed $68.13 +6.23 (10%) but rose further in late trading and was $72.52 + $439 or another 6.4%. In the financials, after the close several, (BAC, MS, C, and MS) all affirmed current rates while WFC said it will have to cut their payout. The stock fell about $ .25.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.97, BGS +.63, FLO +.75, CPB +.85, CAG +1.77, MDLZ +.78, KHC +.81, CALM +.68, JJSF +6.39, SAFM -.64, HRL +.13, SJM +2.07, PPC -.38, KR +1.39, and PBJ $30.87 +.54 (1.81%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +1.34, ABBV +.16, REGN -.49, ISRG +3.92, GILD +.24, MYL +.12, TEVA -.01, VRTX -.64, BHC -.01, INCY +1.05, ICPT $47.10 -30.39 (39.2%) ON THE FDA HAVING QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR NASH (LIVER) TREATMENT. IBB was $134.88 -.48 (.36%).
CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.21, CGC +.55, CRON +.11, GWPH +1.72, ACB -.08, CURLF +.03, KERN +.01 and MJ $13.01 +.19 (1.48%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +11.24, GD +3.29, TXT +1.51, NOC +7.14, BWXT +.91, TDY +5.60, RTX +2.91, and ITA $167.42 +9.04 (5.71%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.71, JWN +1.21, KSS +2.01, DDS +1.80, WMT +.80, TGT +1.55, TJX +1.47, RL +5.29, UAA +.74, LULU +14.57, TPR +.80, CPRI +1.29, and XRT $42.25 + 1.01 (2.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +39.46, AMZN -3.21, AAPL +9.57, FB +4.22, NFLX +4.60, NVDA +6.00, TSLA +46.25, BABA -.11, BIDU -.51, CMG +14.85, CAT +3.61, BA +22.33 (13.2%), DIS +2.90, and XLK $103.19 +1.65 (1.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.81, JPM +1.09, BAC +.28, MS +.56, C +1.26, PNC +2.82, AIG +.97, TRV +1.90, AXP +1.58, V +3.23, and XLF $22.88 +.28 (1.24%).
OIL, $39.70 +1.21. Oil was lower last night trading as low as $37.50 before we rallied well off those levels. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.24 +.74 (2.03%).
GOLD $1781.20 + .90. It was a small pull-back after the strong rally of the end of last week, and after touching $1796 last week we turned back lower and tested $1754 before bursting higher Friday. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $2.12 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,200 -20. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading April 15th

For Trading April 15th
Stocks Rally on “Not Terrible” Bank Earnings
Oil Fails Again, Trades Sub-$20.00
Today was a winner from last night’s futures action and the “Less than feared” reports from JPM and WFC. It didn’t take long for those two to reverse and head lower. This market cares absolutely nothing for the reality of the current situation. We have a president who thinks he’s a king and will do whatever he wants, whenever he wants and will reopen the economy on command. His base may believe that, but it is 180 degrees opposite of what the science says. The DJIA finished +558.99 (2.39%), NASDAQ +323.32 (3.96%), S&P 500 +84.43 (3.06%), the Russell +25.29 (2.09%) and the DJ Transports +140.77 (1.75%, again a laggard). The DJIA was 24:6 Up on the day with AAPL the big gainer +94 DPs, followed by HD +59, MSFT +56, UNH +47, and JNJ as standout who provided forward guidance and went against the trend and raised their dividend. BA was the big loser on news that it had 150 orders 737MAX cancelled and fell 43 DPs with JPM and AXP also losers. BTW, just an aside, there were 21 splits listed for the balance of April, ALL OF THE REVERSES. These included several of the leveraged ETF names but also included Chesapeake Energy (CHK) with a 1:200 in order to stay on the NYSE. Market internals were about average with NYSE A/D 3:1 and NADSAQ 2.4:1. Volume was a touch below average. Consumer discretionary and information tech were strong with financials and energy weak.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video (new equipment) https://youtu.be/vK9cZB5oYu0 SECTORS: The FAANG names were strong across the board (see below) and bonds were mostly unchanged to a touch lower. On the small cap biopharma group, which has a new name popping up every day we had Sonnet Bio (SONN) another one of those wonderful reverses (1:10 and 1:26) trading $10.80 +5.86 preopen and followed by a run to $16.20 before finishing the day $7.99 +3.05 (61.74%) with no news except “trading halted, trading resumed. MEI Pharma (MEIP) had good news in the receipt of $100MM payment and for its oral, once a day drug for “B-cell malignancies.” I may be entitled to up to $582MM based on successful development. The stock traded 2.91 +1.24 (74.8%) preopen and continued to open $3.05, trade up to $3.64 but selloff a bit to close $2.50 +.83 (49.7%). Last in this group, RedHill Biopharma (RDHL) updated its progress with its drug, Opaganib, approved for compassionate use in Italy and Israel. The COVID-19 treatment has been very successful. In Israel, the treatment of just 2 patients demonstrated “measurable clinical improvement within days of treatment initiation.” Patients needed decreased oxygen requirements, decreased C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and increased lymphocyte levels. One patient was treated in the ICU, considered for intubation and was released within days of treatment. Although it traded as high as $22.22 in late 2015, it has not been reversed, it traded as low as $3.26 in March and worked its way higher and broke to the upside Monday 4/6 over $5.50 and has continued higher. It closed today $7.51 +.63 (9.16%) after hitting $8.24. So, not a one-day wonder, it has moved from $3.26 to $7.51 over the last 2 weeks.
Last was ROKU reporting a big gain in revenues this morning. This Lotto tick from $15 in 2017 to trade $176.55 in (9/19) fell back to $58.22 in March finishing the day $106.53 +9.97 (10.33%), almost doubling in just under a month.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +10.82, ABBV +2.88, REGN +7.82, ISRG +20.46 (4.14%), MYL +.29, TEVA +.30, VRTX +12.22 (4.84%), INCY +3.27, ICPT +3.29 LABU +3.10 (11.41%) and IBB $118.55 +4.06 (3.55%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.51, CGC +1.02, CRON +.22, GWPH +1.27, ACB - .004, PYX +.16, NBEV +.39, CURLF +.06, KERN +.10 and MJ $11.70 +.25 (2.18%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +15.04, RTX +3.91, GD +1.90, TXT +.06, NOC +9.94, BWXT +.65, TDY +6.27, and ITA $154.67 +4.04 (2.68%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.02, JWN -.39, KSS +.24, DDS -1.16, JCP -.01, WMT +3.79, TGT +3.70, TJX +2.37, RL +.53, UAA +.41, LULU +5.93, TPR +.61, CPRI +1.38 (10.58%), and XRT $34.75 +1.47 (4.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with several big moves vs. the overall market, with GOOGL +54.59, AMZN +116.13 (5.35%), AAPL +14.15 (5.18%), FB +3.42, NFLX +15.51, NVDA +14.64 (5.43%), TSLA +61.70 (9.48%), BABA +5.74, BIDU +2.98, BA -6.33, CAT +2.71, DIS +2.60 and XLK $89.10 +3.71 (4.34%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.73, JPM -2.36, BAC -.14, MS +.29, C -1.53, PNC -1.46, AIG +.15, TRV +3.57, AXP -1.94, and XLF $22.75 +.22 (.98%).
OIL, $20.11 -2.30. Oil was lower overnight and by the NY open this morning the best it could do was $21.92 -39 and started lower until it fell in the late afternoon to trade 19.95 before a small rally to close just over $20.00. Tonight, it is up $ .75. Tonight’s closing comment on the front page discusses this situation and the position we took in SCO. Stocks were lower with the XLE $38.80 unchanged. This is a video update I made midday. https://youtu.be/40obqKxYVek
METALS, GOLD: $1,768.90 +7.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 today. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011.
BITCOIN: closed $6950 +140. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we’d have to test 67.50 and today we hit 6550 before turning back up. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.30 +.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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MU and XLNX beat

For Trading JUNE 30TH
Pending Home Sales +44.3% in May
BA Adds 168 Points to the DJIA
MU & XLNX Beat, SPG Reaffirms Div.
We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .66, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $2.12.
Today’s market got off to a good start based on the futures, and within the first few minutes started a selloff to the low of the day (+70) and then turned on a dime and started higher again and by 10:00 were had hit +450. We moved sideways to higher until the last 15 minutes we had rallied to a new high and closed +580.25 (2.32%), NASDAQ +116.93 (1.2%), S&P 500 +44.19 (1.47%), the Russell +42.43 (3.08%) and the Transports +246.90 (2.8%). Market internals were good with the NYSE A/D 3:1 and NAZ 2:1, while NYSE A/D volume was better than 5:1. Overall volume was about unchanged from Friday. The DJIA was 29:1 with the biggest mover BA +168 DP’s and the others a far distant AAPL +56, HD +35 and GS 20 DP’s). The Pending Home sales this morning added to the market as soon as it was released. Homebuilders were up anywhere from 3%, (LEN & DHI) to 8.8% (BZH & TOL), and the ETF, XHB finished $43.45 +1.67 (4%).
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/AeKKwW1lmKw
Our Discord Forum link is in the description..
SECTORS: The news of COVID-19 surges in cases to new highs has caused the states of both Texas and Florida to halt the progression of their re-openings. In fact, both states have closed bars since it is a place for younger people to gather and the 25 -39 group shows the biggest increases in cases. There are states that have seen increases of up to 300% from where they were when the re-openings began. For a look at how ALL the states are doing use this link: https://rt.live/ There were 2 stars in the market today; the obvious brightest star was Boeing (BA) on the strength of it starting FAA piloted flights of the 737 MAX for re-certification. The flights seem to be okay, but the flights are just the tip of the iceberg since all of the data now has to be analyzed. I’m sure it will be a little while before we hear anything substantive, but it was a start after over 440 days of grounding (March 2019). But buyers wouldn’t be stopped after the recent decline from the recovery high of $234 to close $170.01 Friday. The stock opened $181.65 and traded up to $194.50 before closing on the highs at $194.49 +24.48 (14.4%). The second star was FB, embroiled in the cancellation of ads but some of the world’s biggest and best companies due to racist and hate oriented content. Last Tuesday before the advertisers started pulling ads the stock had made a new all-time high at $245 but started lower the next day. On Friday Unilever and KO had pulled (adding to the list of medium sized firms) and the stock fell to $215. This morning Starbucks adding to the list and the stock fell to $207.11 before the market took off (see above) and by 10:45 it had crossed unchanged and kept moving to close $220.64 +4.56 (2.1%) but $13 from the low. We’ll have to see what it can do when it gets to supply between $224-226. Earning from two chip makers both beat, and both gave solid guidance. MU finished $52.11 +2.96 (6%), while XLNX was $98.47 +6.50 (7%). Simon Property Group (SPG) reaffirmed its earnings quoting the fact that 199 of their 204 properties across 37 states are open and operating. They also declared their dividend and added that they expect to pay $6.00 in cash for 2020. The stock had closed $68.13 +6.23 (10%) but rose further in late trading and was $72.52 + $439 or another 6.4%. In the financials, after the close several, (BAC, MS, C, and MS) all affirmed current rates while WFC said it will have to cut their payout. The stock fell about $ .25.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.97, BGS +.63, FLO +.75, CPB +.85, CAG +1.77, MDLZ +.78, KHC +.81, CALM +.68, JJSF +6.39, SAFM -.64, HRL +.13, SJM +2.07, PPC -.38, KR +1.39, and PBJ $30.87 +.54 (1.81%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +1.34, ABBV +.16, REGN -.49, ISRG +3.92, GILD +.24, MYL +.12, TEVA -.01, VRTX -.64, BHC -.01, INCY +1.05, ICPT $47.10 -30.39 (39.2%) ON THE FDA HAVING QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR NASH (LIVER) TREATMENT. IBB was $134.88 -.48 (.36%).
CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.21, CGC +.55, CRON +.11, GWPH +1.72, ACB -.08, CURLF +.03, KERN +.01 and MJ $13.01 +.19 (1.48%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +11.24, GD +3.29, TXT +1.51, NOC +7.14, BWXT +.91, TDY +5.60, RTX +2.91, and ITA $167.42 +9.04 (5.71%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.71, JWN +1.21, KSS +2.01, DDS +1.80, WMT +.80, TGT +1.55, TJX +1.47, RL +5.29, UAA +.74, LULU +14.57, TPR +.80, CPRI +1.29, and XRT $42.25 + 1.01 (2.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +39.46, AMZN -3.21, AAPL +9.57, FB +4.22, NFLX +4.60, NVDA +6.00, TSLA +46.25, BABA -.11, BIDU -.51, CMG +14.85, CAT +3.61, BA +22.33 (13.2%), DIS +2.90, and XLK $103.19 +1.65 (1.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.81, JPM +1.09, BAC +.28, MS +.56, C +1.26, PNC +2.82, AIG +.97, TRV +1.90, AXP +1.58, V +3.23, and XLF $22.88 +.28 (1.24%).
OIL, $39.70 +1.21. Oil was lower last night trading as low as $37.50 before we rallied well off those levels. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.24 +.74 (2.03%).
GOLD $1781.20 + .90. It was a small pull-back after the strong rally of the end of last week, and after touching $1796 last week we turned back lower and tested $1754 before bursting higher Friday. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $2.12 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,200 -20. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading April 1

For Trading April 1st
A Normal Day?
Late Selloff No Real Features
Today was as close to a normal day as any I’ve seen in the last 6 weeks. Futures were all over the place last night and opened to the downside this morning but before 10:00 we were back on the upside banging against the 2,640 level for the fourth day in a row. Support around 2,575 seems to be present and we rallied off it several times. However, today’s pickup to a slight new high for the week and closing on the low of the day leads me to the conclusion that we are running out of steam. This week’s range is a meager 95 S&P points, and the Friday close of $2,541 may be an important number. If we go no higher and get back into last week’s range (2191 to 2637) we can head back towards the area of a necessary, test of the current bottom (and I use that term with extreme caution). The volume continues to shrink daily, with the absence of the normal “end of quarter” rebalancing trading. Market internals were just okay with NYSE losers with a slight edge and NASDAQ 1:1. Volume was average for an average day, as were treasury prices. Most of the economic numbers are pre-COVID-19 and I think useless. The DJIA was considerably weaker than the market with 25 down and only 5 up. The only big (?) gainer was CAT on the news that the Great Orange might suspend or delay tariff charges, and it was up only $29 DPs. This has become an incredibly hard market to trade since the IV has become so extreme that if you want to trade an SPY position (as I did today) in order to make even a short-term trade the option prices are so absurd as to skew the risk to unreasonable levels. The example today was a simple one. At a price on the SPY around $259.50, the SPY 4/8 240 puts were $3.30…that’s a week from tomorrow, and $20 out of the money, for $3.30.If for any reason, volatility subsides, these thing will lose a major piece of its premium. If you’re right, and it happens fast, great, however, if it takes more than a day or two, to get started, or moves up, even though it’s not what I expect, it just withers away.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Since it’s late, I’m going right to two of my favorite topics: Today’s Disaster Du Jour was Amarin Corp (AMRN), a biotech that got an unfavorable ruling on patent litigation related to a potential generic version of Vascepa. The company said it will not affect worldwide patent protection. The stock received several downgrades from Oppenheimer, Goldman, and Stifel, and after closing $13.58 yesterday, it opened $4.22 and finished the day $4.00 -9.58 (70.54%)
On the upside we had two winners with Vivus (VVUS) introducing a remote monitoring platform for use when there is Social Distancing. VVUS is a long way down from its highs in the last decade but came to life today and after closing $ .95 yesterday with an open of $4.00 and finished the day $3.60 +2.65 (279%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY goes to SGBX, maker of modular units for easy and quick construction received a MOU from Transcend Onsite Care to use their technology for container-based modules for medical care. After closing on Monday @ $2.06, it opened $3.80, traded $9.74 and closed $9.30 +7.24 (351.46%) before continuing higher in late trading hitting $12.75 and is currently $10.35.
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with TEVA the big winner @ 8.87 +.36 (4.23%), REGN +13.90 (2.94%), VRTX +6.03 (2.06%) and LABU -1.09 (4.72%), and IBB $106.35 -2.;49 (2.29%),
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED CRON -.69 (10.88%) the biggest loser, while CURLF -.22 (5.3%) and MJ $11.40 -.15 (1.3%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with RTN -10.23 (7.24%), UTX -4.25 (4.32%), NOC -12.73 (4.06%) and ITA $142.90-4.67 (3.16%).
RETAIL was LOWER with the group down across the board. M -.53 (9.87%), JWN -.69 (4.37%), KSS -1.60 (9.98%), DDS -4.23 (10.27%), WMT -2.00, TGT -3.68 (3.83%), TJX -1.33 (2.8%), RL -4.75 (6.68%), UAA -.51 (5.33%), LULU -6.56 (3.38%), TPR -.27, CPRI -.50 and XRT $29.78 -.24 (.80%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL +.69, AMZN -25.95, AAPL -4.21, FB -1.20, NFLX +1.04, NVDA -6.09, TSLA +13.37, BABA +.23, BIDU +1.05, BA -5.78, CAT +3.49, DIS -4.30 (4.31%) and XLK $79.48 -2.42 (2.95%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -7.12 (4.45%), JPM -4.75 (5.08%), BAC -1.07 (4.85%), MS -1.51 (4.33%), C -2.63 (6.57%), PNC -6.37 (6.31%), AIG -1.81 -1.81, TRV -5..59 (5.45%), AXP -6.14 (6.8%) and XLF $20.82 -.59 (2.76%).
OIL, $20.48 +.39. The stocks were MIXED even with the price of Oil trading higher. NBL was the big winner +.58 (10.92%), DNR -.18 (8.5%), and XLE $28.72+.10 (.35%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,596.60 -46.60 After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6475 + 95. We traded in another short range again today and finished mid-range on the day. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.12 +.07 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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What Can We Expect in the Halving Market? 58COIN Exchange Beauty Executive Gives the Answer

What Can We Expect in the Halving Market? 58COIN Exchange Beauty Executive Gives the Answer


What are the effects of the third Bitcoin halving?
How to view the relationship between mining pools and exchanges?
Is the contract a road of no return?
What is the future trend of digital currency?


Q1: What does 58COIN expect from this Bitcoin halving?
Xiao Bei: On the macro level, reduction in the bitcoin production shows a more stable signal to the market. May 12th is the third halving in bitcoin’s history, before it, however, the daily production plunged from 1800 to 900, a reduction of around 30,000 bitcoins in a month. The selling pressure reduced significantly, which leaves the root impact on the gradual stability of the market.
The reduction not only brought us a bull market with a sustainable and long-lasting effect but greater opportunities as well. As an exchange, it should better improve itself and render stable and quality products to users. Currently, 58COIN’s mining pool ranks the top 5 in the world. After the reduction, based on the principle of survival of the fittest, the superior resources will be allocated to a larger and more stable mining farm, and the steady recovery of computing power is also anticipating.
Q2: As an exchange, why does 58COIN occupy more than 10% of the overall bitcoin’s computing power?
Xiao Bei: At present, our computing power share is about 7.8%, ranking among the top five in the world. Our recent goal is to have a stable computing power share of more than 10%.
The mining pool provides the main non-trading BTC source for the exchange, increases the supply of BTCs on the market, and injects liquidity into the market. The top ten exchanges are expected to receive more than 70% of the bitcoin in the mining pool, so all major exchanges have begun to layout the mining pool to compete for BTC.
58COIN has reorganized the layout and started the operation of the new mining pool (58COIN& 1THash) in 2019. We have a mature operation team with more than 6 years’ experience, and hope to better link the upstream and downstream industries in the next stage. This is also an important step in the strategic development of high-quality exchanges.
Q3: For an exchange, liquidity and redemption abilities are the absolute reflection of the user's sense of security. How does 58COIN ensure these two abilities that users care most?
Xiao Bei: In terms of liquidity, first of all, our registered users have exceeded 3 million, which provides sufficient trading liquidity and depth. Secondly, our matching transaction service with constantly upgraded technology and algorithm ensures that each matchmaking time is in the microsecond level, and easily achieve system 10,000-level throughput performance.
Concerning the redemption ability, non-trading digital assets held by the exchange serves as the foundation. The advantages of 58COIN's mining pool have accumulated abundant platform reserves for us. As of now, our risk reserve has exceeded 3.6 billion yuan.
Besides, the Exchange integrates account opening, transaction matching, and liquidation, and plays an important role in the secondary market. Most exchanges lack a high-quality intelligent risk control system, a comprehensive anti-money laundering mechanism, and insufficient open and transparent information disclosure and supervision. There may be acts of forgery of trading volume, joint price manipulation with the project party, and other actions that harm the interests of investors. If the liquidity itself is not good enough, the situation mentioned above is more likely to occur.
Q4: Which section does 58COIN values most? Contract Trading or Spot Transactions? What is the biggest advantage of trading contracts on 58COIN?
Xiao Bei: Both spot and contract boast their own advantages, separately lie in the exchange value through hoarded coins, and flexible use of fluctuations. 58COIN as the main contract exchange, contract trading is definitely our focus. In terms of spot, it is mainly based on mainstream currencies.
Compared with spot trading, the two-direction trading mechanism is more flexible. Also, leverage can increase the utilization rate of funds and amplify the profit, which is suitable for users with fewer funds to trade.
The biggest advantage of contract transactions, in addition to the just mentioned abundant platform reserves, complete risk control and huge user base, there are several points related to the user's vital interests:
  1. The lowest fee in the industry. For example, the handling fee of the perpetual contract is: “Taker 0.03%, Maker 0.015%”;
  2. The fixed maintenance margin of 0.5%;
  3. No funding fees. We have made every effort to reduce the principal consumption in each exchange, thus greatly lower the risk of liquidation;
  4. The platform insurance funds bear the full debt loss, and users do not have to worry about apportioning any risks.
In addition, the contract can also maintain the value of the existing mainstream spot of the user to minimize the risk of depreciation caused by spot fluctuations.
It is worth mentioning that in terms of wallet, we implement multi-level and multi-dimensional security risk control strategies such as hot and cold wallet isolation, multi-signature authorization, and regularly change of hot wallet addresses. Meanwhile, a manual verification process was added to ensure the safety of the assets. Since its establishment, there has never been any wallet accident, wallet stolen, or the loss of coin incidents.
Q5: In the contract transaction, what advice does 58COIN give to novice users?
Xiao Bei: Firstly, please remind that contract is not a devil, it is just a tool. What we should do is to make good use of the tool to make profits.
Secondly, the purpose of the investment is to withdraw, and suggestions are shown below:
1. Invest with the spare funds at hand;
2. In the spot transaction, hoard coins in the bear market and exchange in the bull market, do not follow the trend of buying in the bull market;
3. In the contract, set up operation points and positions, and perform secondary operations according to market conditions. (Do not be greedy)
4. Make a risk response plan during the investment process, such as a sufficient margin, value preservation plan, etc.
Finally, we must keep in mind: when doing spot transactions, choose assets with good liquidity in a way to get away from manipulation projects, risky exchanges, etc.
58COIN provides detailed descriptions for each business line, novice users should read them carefully before using. Besides, each contract trading page is designed with a calculator to help provide trading references to users before investment.
Q6: What are the new plans of 58COIN?
Xiao Bei: First of all, we will remain a sophisticated attitude in technology, risk control, and product experience, offering a stronger guarantee for users' transactions; second, we will further improve the ecological layout of 58COIN, from increasing investment in mining pools, gradually optimizing the hot and cold wallet system, enabling entities, focusing on community construction, etc., with better technical upgrades and preparations, to ensure that the entire 58COIN ecology can better link the upstream and downstream industries, providing our users with a more stable ecological background; We will launch some online activities in the near future, covering basic knowledge, candlestick chart learning, and industry analysis. We look forward to making joint efforts with our users in learning and making progress.
Q7: What does 58COIN want to say about the future cryptocurrency market?
Xiao Bei: The real big bonus in the cryptocurrency market has not yet been released, and Bitcoin has more imagination space than gold in the future. The cryptocurrency market is stepping toward a diversified, professional, and tangible direction, requiring more high-quality industries participation and landing. Though it is currently the fastest-growing field, financial attributes should not be the only factor entitled to cryptocurrencies, the future market should be more integrated and serve the real economy, such as the Internet of Things, financial systems, and personal privacy.
For more details, please log in to www.58ex.com or download our app: https://wap.58ex.com/?locale=en.
Website: https://www.58ex.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/58_coin
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/coin.58COIN
Telegram: https://t.me/official58
Medium: https://medium.com/@58coin_blog/
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For Trading May 22nd

BA & TRV Help a Weak DJIA
10 of 11 S&P Sectors Lower
Today’s market was weaker than it looked with 24 of the 30 DJIA stocks lower and 10 of 11 S&P sectors following suit. The indexes were a split with the DJIA -101.78 (.41%), held up by BA and TRV, while NASDAQ was -90.90 (.97%), S&P-500 -23.10 (.78%). The Russell was -.63 and the Transports were -36 (.43%). Market internals were even on the NYSE while NASDAQ was 3:2 lower and volume was lighter. Tomorrow ought to be a somewhat quiet afternoon ahead of the 3-day weekend, but with everyone already at home or in vacation homes, who knows, might even be busier since no one has to beat the traffic.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5Kfl5YgxOL4
SECTORS: The news was negative from the start with the “Tweeter-in-chief” ramping up his anti-China, reelection-based rhetoric and followed by some pretty unpleasant numbers on initial filings for unemployment (2,438,000 v. 2.4million expected) and this week’s “continuing claims” of 25,073,000. After that we had “existing” home sales -17.8% to an annual run-rate of 4.3 million units. That was the lowest number since July 2010. Next came the earnings for TJX, not terrible and looking forward to re-opening and the massive amount of unsold inventory coming their way. The stock finished $54.30 +3.45 (6.8%) and up from $42.52 earlier this month. BJs Wholesale (BJ) blew away the numbers and was rewarded with a $6.28 (22%) move up. BestBuy (BBUY) beat but fell 3.56 (4.4%). After the close we had Palo Alto Networks crushed their numbers and the stock, already up from $125.47 in early March closed $229.50 -4.98 (2.12% and traded up to $247.81 and finished the evening session $245.51 +16.01 (7%). Nvidia (NVDA) was the surprise of the afternoon beating both EPS and revenues but after trading +7 and -7 finished $349.50 -2.00.
FOOD SUPPLY: was LOWER with TSN -.70, BGS -.20, FLO -.05, CAG -.45, MDLZ -.47, KHC -.57, CALM +.13, JJSF -3.03, SAFM -1.10, LANC -2.18, GO -.26, and PBJ $30.56 +.39 (1.24%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.64, ABBV +1.81, REGN -15.91, ISRG -6.36, GILD -.44, MYL -.35, TEVA +.06, VRTX +.38, BHC -.03, INCY +.36, ICPT -.35, LABU -.79 and IBB $132.03 -1.88 (1.40%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +2.30 (28.57%), CGC +1.64, CRON +1.01, GWPH +.34, ACB +4.26 (33.41%), PYX +.18, NBEV +.06, CURLF +.19, KERN -.07 and MJ $13.80 +1.10 (8.66%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +6.38, GD +2.01, TXT +.14, NOC +5.70, BWXT +.15, TDY +6.22, RTX +2.30, and ITA $153.34 +3.27 (2.18%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.36, JWN +1.06, KSS +1.30, DDS +1.29, WMT -.08, TGT -.63, TJX +3.74, RL +3.22, UAA +.54, LULU +10.50, TPR +.98, CPRI +1.08, and XRT $39.02 +.78 (2.04%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -2.53, AMZN -46.14, AAPL -1.23, FB +3.22, NFLX -10.92, NVDA -9.78, TSLA 9.94, BABA -3.39, BIDU +2.58, CMG -1.04, CAT -1.49, BA +6.80, DIS -1.73 and XLK $96.14 -1.36 (1.39%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.24, JPM -.93, BAC +.11, MS -.61, C -.25, PNC -.98, AIG +.86, TRV +2.88, AXP -.36, V -2.36 and XLF $22.00 -.07 (.32%).
OIL, $33.92 + .43. Oil was higher today with the close mid-range. I thought that the most recent downside break occurred from just under $29.00 and may stop this move too, but as we saw, it went right through that level. On today’s rally we bought the USU 6/5 25 puts @ $ .91 and they closed $1.01. The stocks on my list were mostly lower with XLE $38.72 -.63 (1.6%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,721.90 -30.20. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,715. There is good support from here to $1,685 and I’d expect a renewed move higher.
BITCOIN: closed $9,075 - 495. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $1110.58 -.64 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading April 15th

For Trading April 15th
Stocks Rally on “Not Terrible” Bank Earnings
Oil Fails Again, Trades Sub-$20.00
Today was a winner from last night’s futures action and the “Less than feared” reports from JPM and WFC. It didn’t take long for those two to reverse and head lower. This market cares absolutely nothing for the reality of the current situation. We have a president who thinks he’s a king and will do whatever he wants, whenever he wants and will reopen the economy on command. His base may believe that, but it is 180 degrees opposite of what the science says. The DJIA finished +558.99 (2.39%), NASDAQ +323.32 (3.96%), S&P 500 +84.43 (3.06%), the Russell +25.29 (2.09%) and the DJ Transports +140.77 (1.75%, again a laggard). The DJIA was 24:6 Up on the day with AAPL the big gainer +94 DPs, followed by HD +59, MSFT +56, UNH +47, and JNJ as standout who provided forward guidance and went against the trend and raised their dividend. BA was the big loser on news that it had 150 orders 737MAX cancelled and fell 43 DPs with JPM and AXP also losers. BTW, just an aside, there were 21 splits listed for the balance of April, ALL OF THE REVERSES. These included several of the leveraged ETF names but also included Chesapeake Energy (CHK) with a 1:200 in order to stay on the NYSE. Market internals were about average with NYSE A/D 3:1 and NADSAQ 2.4:1. Volume was a touch below average. Consumer discretionary and information tech were strong with financials and energy weak.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video (new equipment) https://youtu.be/vK9cZB5oYu0 SECTORS: The FAANG names were strong across the board (see below) and bonds were mostly unchanged to a touch lower. On the small cap biopharma group, which has a new name popping up every day we had Sonnet Bio (SONN) another one of those wonderful reverses (1:10 and 1:26) trading $10.80 +5.86 preopen and followed by a run to $16.20 before finishing the day $7.99 +3.05 (61.74%) with no news except “trading halted, trading resumed. MEI Pharma (MEIP) had good news in the receipt of $100MM payment and for its oral, once a day drug for “B-cell malignancies.” I may be entitled to up to $582MM based on successful development. The stock traded 2.91 +1.24 (74.8%) preopen and continued to open $3.05, trade up to $3.64 but selloff a bit to close $2.50 +.83 (49.7%). Last in this group, RedHill Biopharma (RDHL) updated its progress with its drug, Opaganib, approved for compassionate use in Italy and Israel. The COVID-19 treatment has been very successful. In Israel, the treatment of just 2 patients demonstrated “measurable clinical improvement within days of treatment initiation.” Patients needed decreased oxygen requirements, decreased C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and increased lymphocyte levels. One patient was treated in the ICU, considered for intubation and was released within days of treatment. Although it traded as high as $22.22 in late 2015, it has not been reversed, it traded as low as $3.26 in March and worked its way higher and broke to the upside Monday 4/6 over $5.50 and has continued higher. It closed today $7.51 +.63 (9.16%) after hitting $8.24. So, not a one-day wonder, it has moved from $3.26 to $7.51 over the last 2 weeks.
Last was ROKU reporting a big gain in revenues this morning. This Lotto tick from $15 in 2017 to trade $176.55 in (9/19) fell back to $58.22 in March finishing the day $106.53 +9.97 (10.33%), almost doubling in just under a month.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +10.82, ABBV +2.88, REGN +7.82, ISRG +20.46 (4.14%), MYL +.29, TEVA +.30, VRTX +12.22 (4.84%), INCY +3.27, ICPT +3.29 LABU +3.10 (11.41%) and IBB $118.55 +4.06 (3.55%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.51, CGC +1.02, CRON +.22, GWPH +1.27, ACB - .004, PYX +.16, NBEV +.39, CURLF +.06, KERN +.10 and MJ $11.70 +.25 (2.18%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +15.04, RTX +3.91, GD +1.90, TXT +.06, NOC +9.94, BWXT +.65, TDY +6.27, and ITA $154.67 +4.04 (2.68%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.02, JWN -.39, KSS +.24, DDS -1.16, JCP -.01, WMT +3.79, TGT +3.70, TJX +2.37, RL +.53, UAA +.41, LULU +5.93, TPR +.61, CPRI +1.38 (10.58%), and XRT $34.75 +1.47 (4.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with several big moves vs. the overall market, with GOOGL +54.59, AMZN +116.13 (5.35%), AAPL +14.15 (5.18%), FB +3.42, NFLX +15.51, NVDA +14.64 (5.43%), TSLA +61.70 (9.48%), BABA +5.74, BIDU +2.98, BA -6.33, CAT +2.71, DIS +2.60 and XLK $89.10 +3.71 (4.34%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.73, JPM -2.36, BAC -.14, MS +.29, C -1.53, PNC -1.46, AIG +.15, TRV +3.57, AXP -1.94, and XLF $22.75 +.22 (.98%).
OIL, $20.11 -2.30. Oil was lower overnight and by the NY open this morning the best it could do was $21.92 -39 and started lower until it fell in the late afternoon to trade 19.95 before a small rally to close just over $20.00. Tonight, it is up $ .75. Tonight’s closing comment on the front page discusses this situation and the position we took in SCO. Stocks were lower with the XLE $38.80 unchanged. This is a video update I made midday. https://youtu.be/40obqKxYVek
METALS, GOLD: $1,768.90 +7.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 today. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011.
BITCOIN: closed $6950 +140. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we’d have to test 67.50 and today we hit 6550 before turning back up. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.30 +.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading May 22nd

BA & TRV Help a Weak DJIA
10 of 11 S&P Sectors Lower
Today’s market was weaker than it looked with 24 of the 30 DJIA stocks lower and 10 of 11 S&P sectors following suit. The indexes were a split with the DJIA -101.78 (.41%), held up by BA and TRV, while NASDAQ was -90.90 (.97%), S&P-500 -23.10 (.78%). The Russell was -.63 and the Transports were -36 (.43%). Market internals were even on the NYSE while NASDAQ was 3:2 lower and volume was lighter. Tomorrow ought to be a somewhat quiet afternoon ahead of the 3-day weekend, but with everyone already at home or in vacation homes, who knows, might even be busier since no one has to beat the traffic.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5Kfl5YgxOL4
SECTORS: The news was negative from the start with the “Tweeter-in-chief” ramping up his anti-China, reelection-based rhetoric and followed by some pretty unpleasant numbers on initial filings for unemployment (2,438,000 v. 2.4million expected) and this week’s “continuing claims” of 25,073,000. After that we had “existing” home sales -17.8% to an annual run-rate of 4.3 million units. That was the lowest number since July 2010. Next came the earnings for TJX, not terrible and looking forward to re-opening and the massive amount of unsold inventory coming their way. The stock finished $54.30 +3.45 (6.8%) and up from $42.52 earlier this month. BJs Wholesale (BJ) blew away the numbers and was rewarded with a $6.28 (22%) move up. BestBuy (BBUY) beat but fell 3.56 (4.4%). After the close we had Palo Alto Networks crushed their numbers and the stock, already up from $125.47 in early March closed $229.50 -4.98 (2.12% and traded up to $247.81 and finished the evening session $245.51 +16.01 (7%). Nvidia (NVDA) was the surprise of the afternoon beating both EPS and revenues but after trading +7 and -7 finished $349.50 -2.00.
FOOD SUPPLY: was LOWER with TSN -.70, BGS -.20, FLO -.05, CAG -.45, MDLZ -.47, KHC -.57, CALM +.13, JJSF -3.03, SAFM -1.10, LANC -2.18, GO -.26, and PBJ $30.56 +.39 (1.24%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -4.64, ABBV +1.81, REGN -15.91, ISRG -6.36, GILD -.44, MYL -.35, TEVA +.06, VRTX +.38, BHC -.03, INCY +.36, ICPT -.35, LABU -.79 and IBB $132.03 -1.88 (1.40%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +2.30 (28.57%), CGC +1.64, CRON +1.01, GWPH +.34, ACB +4.26 (33.41%), PYX +.18, NBEV +.06, CURLF +.19, KERN -.07 and MJ $13.80 +1.10 (8.66%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +6.38, GD +2.01, TXT +.14, NOC +5.70, BWXT +.15, TDY +6.22, RTX +2.30, and ITA $153.34 +3.27 (2.18%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.36, JWN +1.06, KSS +1.30, DDS +1.29, WMT -.08, TGT -.63, TJX +3.74, RL +3.22, UAA +.54, LULU +10.50, TPR +.98, CPRI +1.08, and XRT $39.02 +.78 (2.04%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -2.53, AMZN -46.14, AAPL -1.23, FB +3.22, NFLX -10.92, NVDA -9.78, TSLA 9.94, BABA -3.39, BIDU +2.58, CMG -1.04, CAT -1.49, BA +6.80, DIS -1.73 and XLK $96.14 -1.36 (1.39%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.24, JPM -.93, BAC +.11, MS -.61, C -.25, PNC -.98, AIG +.86, TRV +2.88, AXP -.36, V -2.36 and XLF $22.00 -.07 (.32%).
OIL, $33.92 + .43. Oil was higher today with the close mid-range. I thought that the most recent downside break occurred from just under $29.00 and may stop this move too, but as we saw, it went right through that level. On today’s rally we bought the USU 6/5 25 puts @ $ .91 and they closed $1.01. The stocks on my list were mostly lower with XLE $38.72 -.63 (1.6%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,721.90 -30.20. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,715. There is good support from here to $1,685 and I’d expect a renewed move higher.
BITCOIN: closed $9,075 - 495. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $1110.58 -.64 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

A Doozy!

For Trading March 12th
BA CRASHES MARKET
TRAVEL BUSINESSES COLLAPSE
Yields Improve
Today’s market was pounded from the start with the futures overnight falling on the lack of the president showing up after he said he would be appearing and the fact that there were no specifics of his “plan” to address the issues. After trading down all morning to -1067 around 11:45 rates started to firm and we had a rally back to -787, but then rates slipped and we headed to 1665 before a close -1464.94 (5.86%), NASDAQ -382.20 (4.7%), S&P 500 -140.86 (4.89%), the Russell -86.60 (6.41%) and the DJ Transports -394.75 (4.63%). Clearly, the biggest drag on the market was BA -284 DP’s, one of the reasons that the DJIA was a bigger percentage leader on the downside. Market internals were weak with the NYSE 18:1 and the NASDAQ 7.1:1 negative. All of the DJIA stocks were lower with only 2 NOT down in double digits. Between the declaration that the WHO put out calling the COVID-19 a “World-wide Pandemic,” and the banning of spectators at sports events in Washington State and bans on events in San Francisco of over 1000 people, things only got worse when BA declared that it was taking down a $13.8 billion line of credit and a hiring freeze. Since the close, the NCAA has said that March Madness games will also be played without spectators. Even the late- night TV shows are stopping live audiences by this weekend. The one thing that I feel I have to stress here is that this IS NOT A FINANCIAL CRISIS, IT IS A HEALTH CRISIS. While that does little to take the sting out of a 20% decline, it is not a bank (or banks) failure. I know it doesn’t help, but it is the fact. And frankly, the panic is overdone.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a debacle of a day for the same names as for the last 2 weeks with airlines, cruises, booking companies, and finally BA, the biggest aircraft manufacturer in the world falling. In the airlines we had JBLU -1.01 (6.93%), UAL – 3.22 (6.13%), LUV -307 (6.74%) and DAL -2.80 (6.16%). The cruise lines continued with all down dramatically, but none as bad as NCLH today -5.47 (26.7%), CCL -2.27 (9.45%), and RCL -7.30 (14.13%). The bookers followed with BKNG -116.50 (7.47%) and EXPE –9.26 (10.7%).
As mentioned, BA gets a double (or maybe triple) shot with their 737MAX troubles, yesterday’s issue with wiring bundles, the airlines canceling orders and the fact that they drew on a massive $13.8billion line of credit today. The stock, the leader on the upside moving from $102 in 2016 to a peak of $446 last March has fallen back to 2017 levels, closing $189.08 -73.25 this week and -41.93 (18.15%) today.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with none down less than 2.7% and BIIB -11.38, ABBV -2.53, REGN -10.32, ISRG -27.85, MYL -.58, TEVA -.35, VRTX -8.06, BHC -.61, INCY -2.41, ICPT -8.42 (9.29%), LABU -7.07 (18.72%) and IBB $107.70 -4.61 (4.10%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again with TLRY -.69, CGC -.71, CRON -.03, GWPH -6.49, ACB -.09, PYX -.32, NBEV- .18, CURLF -.22 and the only winner KERN, maker of compliance software, 5.76 +.86 (17.55%) and MJ $11.34 -.80 (6.59%).
DEFENSE: was SHARLY LOWER with -10.24, RTN -14.12, GD -6.85, TXT -3.85 (11.29%), UTX -11.71 (9.81%), NOC -17.04, BWXT -.34, TDY -15.98, and ITA $116.77 -16.54 (9.02%).
RETAIL was LOWER with the brands only slightly better on the day. M-.79, JWN -3.08 (11.36%), KSS -2.96, DDS -4.04, JCP -.068 (12.11%), WMT -4.81, TGT -2.75, TJX -2.36, RL -8.24, UAA -.37, LULU -10.38, TPR -1.59, CPRI -2.04 (9.97%), NKE -4.30 (4.87%) on Adidas earnings and guidance, and XRT $34.97 -2.70 (7.17%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -54.17, AMZN -57.62, AAPL -7.65, FB -6.64, NFLX -11.64, NVDA -12.39, IBM -5.51, TSLA –2.33, BABA -6.88, BIDU 2.51, BA (see above), CAT -5.80, DIS -5.27, and XLK $84.10 -3.54 (4.04%)
FINANCIALS were LOWER with the market and a visit with the president didn’t seem to help. GS -10.10, JMP -3.93, BAC -.81, MS -2.30, MS -2.30, C -4.26, PNC -6.10, AIG -2.64, TRV -5.77, AXP -6.85 and XLF $23.00 -1.15 (4.76%).
OIL, $3432.98 -1.38 The stocks were LOWER with the price of Oil trying to rally and making it to $36.35 before turning back down and closing near the lows. I’m still stand aside this market since it has a lot of work to do to rebuild a base to define the risk. XLE finished $34.25 -1.30 (3.66%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,642 -13.80. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We finished nearer the low, and we continued lower today.
BITCOIN: closed $7,855 -140. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.64 -62 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Impressive Close!

For Trading March 11th
Another Day, Another 5%
Yields Improve
Today’s market was interesting in that after it opened higher and was +945 within the first 15 minutes, and fell back to down on the day by 11:45, it actually made a slight new low vs. yesterday’s debacle and survived, spent 3 hours consolidating, and then started up again making a new high on the day and closing on that high with DJIA +1167.14 (4.89%), NASDAQ +393.57 (4.95%), S&P 500 +4.94%), the Russell +37.47 (2.85%) and the DJ Transports +437.35 (5.41%). The transports were the only index that had an “inside” day, while all the others made the lower low and finished at or near the highs. While I don’t believe that the market is turning on a dime and heading higher, today’s action is constructive in that it is displaying the kind of action that occurs in a “bottoming” area. The gap, followed by the selloff, and recovery to new highs for the day was impressive. Market internals improved (it would have been hard for them not to) with NYSE A/D at 3:1 and the NASDAQ was 2:1. Volume was good in both places and the DJIA was the mirror image of yesterday with all 30 names higher. The biggest gainers were AAPL +130, HD +103, MCD +88 and GS +77DPs. There were only 3 stocks up less than double digits. These gains may not look very impressive when compared to yesterday’s losses, but what you need to remember is that on the downside, there need not be big sellers to depress prices. The absence of buyers and the gaps down take little volume, while buying, in the face of depressed prices takes substantially greater conviction. This is one of the reasons that the market goes up roughly 2/3 of the time and falls twice as fast.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a decent day for an earnings report for DKS. They beat on every metric and raised the dividend, and then in a display of public awareness disclosed that they are discontinuing hunting and gun sales. While the stock is down from $50 to $32 in January, today’s actions took it back as high as $39.14 and finished $35.87 +1.39 (4.03%).
I want to take the time tonight to remind everyone that there have been a lot of companies that have made claims, or had claims made about them that have caused some major moves. Some were warranted and some were not, but the point is that as a rule, they are dangerous unless you use stops and go into them with the knowledge that they can and do turn on a dime.
Here are a few: INO Started $4.00 went to $19, closed @$5.70 -4.13 today. SPEX $1.03 to $3.75, back to .75, back to $5.50, closed today $1.83 -1.39 today OPK $1.40 to $2.91, closed today $1.71 -.51 And CODX $3.16 to $21.75, back to $8, back to $18, closed $6.89 -2.94 today.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +1.81, ABBV +2.17, REGN +.58, ISRG +26.74 (5.24%), MYL +.70, TEVA +.28, VRTX +5.35, BHC +1.10, INCY +1.71, ICPT +5.47, LABU +1.82 and IBB $112.15 +2.15 (1.95%).
CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY +.09, CGC +.80, CRON +.15, GWPH +5.79, ACB +.04, PYX +.01, NBEV + .13, CURLF +.21, KERN +.43 and MJ $12.14 +.39 (3.32%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.47, RTN +4.89, GD +5.28, TXT +3.06, UTX +2.14, NOC +21.61 (6.9%), BWTX +2.72, TDY +11.92, and ITA $186.29 +9.95 (5.64%).
RETAIL was LOWER with the brands were the biggest winners on the day. M-.24, JWN +.32, KSS -1.50, JCP -.01, WMT +.59, TGT +1.98, TJX -.20, RL +3.92, UAA +.75, LULU +2.23, TPR +.62, CPRI +.66, and XRT $37.67 +.66 (1.78%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +24.21, AMZN +56.55, AAPL +13.33, FB +5.22, NFLX +10.51, NVDA +9.76, IBM +5.69, TSLA +17.30, BABA +7.20, BIDU +3.35, BA -2.37, CAT +.43, DIS +4.86, and XLK $87.64 +5.48 (6.67%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with the market and firming in rates with GS +7.19, JPM +5.11, BAC +1.08, MS +1.14, C +2.68, PNC +9.29, AIG +2.26, TRV +2.30, AXP +3.96 and XLF $23.77 +.96 (4.21%).
OIL, $34.36 +3.23%) The stocks were HIGHER with the steadying of the Oil price and the overall market. I’m still stand aside this market since it has a lot of work to do to rebuild a base to define the risk. XLE finished $34.79 +.85 (2.5%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,660.30 -15.40. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We finished nearer the low, and I feel like after a consolidation that we will head higher.
BITCOIN: closed $7,995 +145. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $9.27 +40 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

Bad Action!

For Trading March 12th
BA CRASHES MARKET
TRAVEL BUSINESSES COLLAPSE
Yields Improve
Today’s market was pounded from the start with the futures overnight falling on the lack of the president showing up after he said he would be appearing and the fact that there were no specifics of his “plan” to address the issues. After trading down all morning to -1067 around 11:45 rates started to firm and we had a rally back to -787, but then rates slipped and we headed to 1665 before a close -1464.94 (5.86%), NASDAQ -382.20 (4.7%), S&P 500 -140.86 (4.89%), the Russell -86.60 (6.41%) and the DJ Transports -394.75 (4.63%). Clearly, the biggest drag on the market was BA -284 DP’s, one of the reasons that the DJIA was a bigger percentage leader on the downside. Market internals were weak with the NYSE 18:1 and the NASDAQ 7.1:1 negative. All of the DJIA stocks were lower with only 2 NOT down in double digits. Between the declaration that the WHO put out calling the COVID-19 a “World-wide Pandemic,” and the banning of spectators at sports events in Washington State and bans on events in San Francisco of over 1000 people, things only got worse when BA declared that it was taking down a $13.8 billion line of credit and a hiring freeze. Since the close, the NCAA has said that March Madness games will also be played without spectators. Even the late- night TV shows are stopping live audiences by this weekend. The one thing that I feel I have to stress here is that this IS NOT A FINANCIAL CRISIS, IT IS A HEALTH CRISIS. While that does little to take the sting out of a 20% decline, it is not a bank (or banks) failure. I know it doesn’t help, but it is the fact. And frankly, the panic is overdone.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a debacle of a day for the same names as for the last 2 weeks with airlines, cruises, booking companies, and finally BA, the biggest aircraft manufacturer in the world falling. In the airlines we had JBLU -1.01 (6.93%), UAL – 3.22 (6.13%), LUV -307 (6.74%) and DAL -2.80 (6.16%). The cruise lines continued with all down dramatically, but none as bad as NCLH today -5.47 (26.7%), CCL -2.27 (9.45%), and RCL -7.30 (14.13%). The bookers followed with BKNG -116.50 (7.47%) and EXPE –9.26 (10.7%).
As mentioned, BA gets a double (or maybe triple) shot with their 737MAX troubles, yesterday’s issue with wiring bundles, the airlines canceling orders and the fact that they drew on a massive $13.8billion line of credit today. The stock, the leader on the upside moving from $102 in 2016 to a peak of $446 last March has fallen back to 2017 levels, closing $189.08 -73.25 this week and -41.93 (18.15%) today.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with none down less than 2.7% and BIIB -11.38, ABBV -2.53, REGN -10.32, ISRG -27.85, MYL -.58, TEVA -.35, VRTX -8.06, BHC -.61, INCY -2.41, ICPT -8.42 (9.29%), LABU -7.07 (18.72%) and IBB $107.70 -4.61 (4.10%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again with TLRY -.69, CGC -.71, CRON -.03, GWPH -6.49, ACB -.09, PYX -.32, NBEV- .18, CURLF -.22 and the only winner KERN, maker of compliance software, 5.76 +.86 (17.55%) and MJ $11.34 -.80 (6.59%).
DEFENSE: was SHARLY LOWER with -10.24, RTN -14.12, GD -6.85, TXT -3.85 (11.29%), UTX -11.71 (9.81%), NOC -17.04, BWXT -.34, TDY -15.98, and ITA $116.77 -16.54 (9.02%).
RETAIL was LOWER with the brands only slightly better on the day. M-.79, JWN -3.08 (11.36%), KSS -2.96, DDS -4.04, JCP -.068 (12.11%), WMT -4.81, TGT -2.75, TJX -2.36, RL -8.24, UAA -.37, LULU -10.38, TPR -1.59, CPRI -2.04 (9.97%), NKE -4.30 (4.87%) on Adidas earnings and guidance, and XRT $34.97 -2.70 (7.17%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -54.17, AMZN -57.62, AAPL -7.65, FB -6.64, NFLX -11.64, NVDA -12.39, IBM -5.51, TSLA –2.33, BABA -6.88, BIDU 2.51, BA (see above), CAT -5.80, DIS -5.27, and XLK $84.10 -3.54 (4.04%)
FINANCIALS were LOWER with the market and a visit with the president didn’t seem to help. GS -10.10, JMP -3.93, BAC -.81, MS -2.30, MS -2.30, C -4.26, PNC -6.10, AIG -2.64, TRV -5.77, AXP -6.85 and XLF $23.00 -1.15 (4.76%).
OIL, $3432.98 -1.38 The stocks were LOWER with the price of Oil trying to rally and making it to $36.35 before turning back down and closing near the lows. I’m still stand aside this market since it has a lot of work to do to rebuild a base to define the risk. XLE finished $34.25 -1.30 (3.66%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,642 -13.80. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We finished nearer the low, and we continued lower today.
BITCOIN: closed $7,855 -140. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.64 -62 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Dash Competitive basket index for Thursday, 16 April, 2020. Not too bad, but mixed signals. Tune in tomorrow.

Dash Competitive basket index for Thursday, 16 April, 2020. Not too bad, but mixed signals. Tune in tomorrow.
Mixed signals today. The Alt coin sector had a big reversal on the 24 hour time frame. It went from 7% of the top 31 in the green, to 87% of the top 31 in the green. This is good. And of those, Dash went up harder than almost everybody, beating 90% of the top 31. This is also good.
But on the 7 day time frame, only 10% were in the green and Dash had an overall win rate of 40%. The 24 hour data is a good sign, but Dash needs consistent follow through. Tune in tomorrow!

  1. Dash outperformed 6 of the 20 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (30% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 54%
  2. Dash outperformed 6 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (60% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 65%.
  3. In total, Dash outperformed 12 of the top 30 cryptos (40% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 58%.
  4. Bitcoin dominance dropped 2/10th to 63.0.
  5. 13 of the top 30 cryptos beat Bitcoin (43%).
  6. On the 7 day time frame, only 3 of the top 31 cryptos (10%) were in the green.
  7. On the 24 hour time frame, 27 of the top 31 (87%) cryptos were in the green.
  8. On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 27 of the top 30 cryptos (90%).
* The 30 day SMA is the Simple Moving Average for the last 30 days. It is represented with the red line. The blue line is the daily Dash performance based on the price change over a one week period. As always, this is not investment advise. Do your own homework. All crypto is risky. Don’t invest more in crypto than you can afford to lose.
^ Dash vs the 20 cryptos listed below us. Blue line below red line = bad. Blue line < 50% win rate, also bad. But not terrible. Let's see what tomorrow looks like.

^ Dash vs the 10 cryptos listed below us. Not great, but not bad. Same thing, tune in tomorrow.

^ Dash vs the top 30 cryptos in the world. Same same.


Red line is the % of the top 30 cryptos that were in the green on the 24 hour column on CoinPaprika.
Blue line is the % of the top 30 cryptos that were in the green on the 7 day column.
Once again, this is the chart that proves interesting and useful. The red line came roaring back, and might signal a reversal for the Alt Coin sector. Tune in tomorrow!
submitted by solarguy2003