In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day
investing comments / day
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
Before I tell you how to find your address, I will first make it clear, within the italicized text, exactly which address you are looking for, if you are not already sure:
You may also skip the text written in italics if your issue does not include an ERC20 token, if you wish.
Ledger Live can confuse some users with its interface. On LL, to manage an ERC20 token, you first must go to your Ethereum account and add the token. When you then click on the added token under "Tokens" below the graph chart for your account's ETH amount over time, the screen will then open a new screen, that looks just the same, except focused on the specific ERC20 token. To confuse users further, there is then an option to "Star account", which then add the ETH icon with the ERC20 token's first letter or symbol overlapping, onto the easy access sidebar, as if it was another account of similar independency to the ETH account it was added to.
This improperly displays the two "accounts" relation to each other.
Your ERC20 holdings (at least for any and all ERC20 that I know of) are "held" in the exact-same address as the Ethereum address it was added to, which also "holds" any Ether you've added to it. You send both Ether (ETH) and any ERC20 Tokens to and from only Ethereum addresses of equivalent capabilities, in both qualities and quantities. In all basic terms and uses, they are the same.
So, to know what the problematic account's address is, find the address of the Ethereum account it was added to in Ledger Live.
Now, to find your address on MyCrypto, the most reliable way to find it, that I am aware of, is this:
Open Ledger Live. Go to the screen of your Ethereum address (again, this is the one that you added your ERC20 token, if applicable. If you're not dealing with an ERC20 token, you may ignore everything I've put in Italics). Click on "Edit account"; this is the icon next to the star that may look like a hex-wrench tool. On the new screen-overlay, you will see "> ADVANCED LOGS". Click on the ">" and it will point down while revealing a drop-down with some data that you may or may not recognize/understand. Likely to be found indented and in the middle-ish area, you will see this line, or something hopefully similar:
The "X" will probably be the only thing that changes, and the actual data will have a number in its place; it will not be a letter. Let's now put that line to use in MyCrypto:
Take the 44'/60'/X'/0/0 , and make sure you DO NOT copy the quotation marks, or that comma at the end either.
You can do this before or after copying and/or pasting, but drop the second "/0" at the end; it was not necessary in my case, I expect that you won't need it either, and will probably just make MyCrypto see it as an invalid input.
Okay, now go back to the "Select an Address" screen-overlay in MyCrypto.
Next to "Addresses", click on the box on the right, and you should be shown a list of options to select from in a drop-down menu.
Scroll all the way down, and you should find the "Custom" option at the very bottom. Select it.
A new box will appear; probably directly to the right of the now-shortened box that now displays the "Custom" option that you just selected. This box will offer an interface for typed input. ...yep... once again, believe it or not, you should click it.
Type " m/ ", no spaces before or after.
Type in or paste the data we retrieved from ledger live.
The box should now hold this:
Again, X should be a number. In fact, that number is probably equal to the number of Ethereum (not including any ERC20 wannabe) accounts that you've made on Ledger Live before making the one we're working on right now! (1st Eth. Acc. would have: X = 0, 2nd: X = 1, 3rd: X = 2, ...)
Make sure you've included every apostrophe ( ' ), and solidus ( / ); there is NO APOSTROPHE for the "m" at the start and the "/0" at the end!
If you press the enter key or click on the check-mark to the right of where you typed, the appropriate addresses will be generated, and the address you created through Ledger Live should be the first one on the list!
Select your address and press "Unlock", and you are now accessing your account through the MyCrypto app's interface!
In order to access your ERC20 token, you will need to add them first.
You may have to scroll down, but on the right-side of your unlocked account screen, you'll see a box with "Token Balances" as its header.
Click "Scan for tokens". This may take a short bit of time, and when it's done it may or may not display your ERC20 token. If it worked, you can head on back to the main part.
If you got the result I did, it won't display your token, or, if our result was exactly the same, it won't display any at all. However, you should now have the "Add Custom Token" option available, so see where that takes you.
You should discover four boxes, specified in order (Address/ Decimals / Token_Symbol / Balance). You may only need to fill in the "Address" box, but if you need to fill others, you'll find those with the token's address; here's 2 ways to find it, if you don't already know.
Since you've probably already been managing your token with Ledger Live, you can go to the LL screen of your "account" for that token; Right next to the account's icon, and directly above the name, you'll see:
Yes, go on; click it. You'll find the token's page on Etherscan; this was just a shortcut to the same place that both of the two previously referenced methods lead to. Skip to method... III?
Go to Etherscan.com, or a similar Ethereum-blockchain-monitoring website, if you have a different preference. Search for the name of your token, and you should be able to see it as a search result. Activate your search manually of by selecting search option. Continue on with Method III.
Method III (I&II; what makes you think there was a third method? I said 2!):
At this point, you should find the "contract address" somewhere on the screen. This is the identity of the creature that breathes life into the token, allowing it to exist within the world of Ethereum. Steal it, and tell MyCrypto that you've left some of "your" tokens in the address of your ledger's Ethereum account. MyCrypto will trust and believe you without any concern or doubt, just by putting "your" contract address in the box for "Address"; it's almost too easy!
Well whaddya know, this one isn't actually too long! Don't tell anyone who may have taken a little longer whilst finding out how to do it themselves, though. There's value in trying to do something on your own, at least at first, so I'll let them think they made the right choice (¬‿¬). But take this star for humbling yourself enough to seek further help when you need it, since that is a very important life skill as well!
Now, back to the useful stuff at the top...
In the past two months, we have seen a significant decline in bitcoin dominance, While the value on May 15 was still 69.60%, it fell to around 62.60% by yesterday's Sunday.submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]
So that means that many altcoins perform better than BTC.
However, in view of the more than 5000 altcoins, the question of which coins should now outperform Bitcoin naturally arises.
The spectrum ranges from the well-known alts such as Ethereum to the new top performers like Chainlink.
If you are looking for cryptocurrency exchange with zero spot trading fees and Leverage trading engines that are ten times faster as compared to other cryptocurrency exchanges, Visit Phemex Exchange
In this article, let's take a look at an analysis by Santiment and see why they think Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and Ren (REN) could beat Bitcoin.
Santiment underlines the feeling of the Altcoin seasonFirst of all, the Santiment report presented is about a so-called short-term outlook.
This means that all statements refer to a short-term period. And for this short-term period, the analysis company now sees the altcoins ETH, Link, and REN at the forefront.
The report begins with a brief summary of the situation.
While the Bitcoin price is largely still in the price range of $ 9,000 - $ 9,500, many altcoins, in particular, have seen strong increases.
Santiment sees the greatest potential here at Chainlink (LINK).
Chainlink as a winner in front of Ethereum and RENIn the report presented, Santiment uses 3 indicators to assess the short-term situation of the altcoins. Chainlink sees this in the first place.
In addition to the positive indicators, the company also attests to the token based on the Ethereum Blockchain a bullish signal through the use in the context of China's National Blockchain Service Network (BSN).
After this news was published on July 8, the LINK course saw strong growth.
Let's take a quick look at the chart:
We can see from the 30-day chart that the price of Chainlink rose from around USD 4 to USD 6 at the beginning.
This makes LINK one of the best performers of the past 30 days.
Ethereum and REN are further candidatesIn addition, the company says that they see Ethereum and REN as additional candidates for outperformance. As already mentioned, 3 indicators were considered for this.
Now let's take a look at the ones behind it. Then, of course, we also look at the values for the individual altcoins.
NVT, DAA and Sentiment Volume Consumed as indicators
The first indicator examined is the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT).
This is a metric that relates the volume of transactions divided by the number of coins/tokens in circulation to market capitalization. This is done over a period of time. In our case, that's the 3-day average.
The second indicator is the daily active addresses in relation to price divergence. Simply put, the price dynamic is set in relation to the number of active addresses.
You can find more information here. The third parameter is called Sentiment Volume Consumed. This is about the measured “sentiment” on Twitter.
Now let's look at the ratings for Bitcoin, Ethereum, LINK, and REN.
The company assigned a numerical value of 0-10 for each indicator, which varies between maximum bearish (0) and maximum bullish (10).
LINK before Ethereum, REN, and Bitcoin: the resultsLet's start with the top dog Bitcoin. BTC received only a value of 2 for the indicator NVT. The DAA value was 5 and the value for Sentiment Volume Consumed was 6.5. This gives a total value of 4.5, which Santiment sees as a neutral rating.
Ethereum itself receives 5 points for NVT, 8 points for DAA, and 7.5 for SVC. This results in a total value of 6.8. Santiment rates this as bullish. Ethereum got the second-best total after Chainlink.
LINK itself received 9 points in the NVT area. 5.5 points were awarded for DAA and 7 points for SVC. This gives a value of 7.2.
REN received 8 points in NVT, 7.5 in DAA, and only 3.5 in SVC. This gives a total value of 6.3, which is still bullish overall.
Conclusion: Short-term outperformance possible
Santiment's report shows that the 3 cryptocurrencies Ethereum, Chainlink, and Ren offer the short-term potential to outperform the top cryptocurrency Bitcoin. However, it is important to understand that these figures only give a short-term outlook and therefore do not constitute a long-term trading recommendation.
﷽submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - End of Year Summary - Down 86%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE**
tl;dr - Every crypto was down again in December. After two years tracking this group of cryptos, I'm down -86%. Although the market as a whole rebounded in 2019, the 2018 Top Ten portfolio was flat for the year. Bitcoin wins this year by far, do you know who one last year? 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos has lost at least 90% of their January 2018 value and 50% of cryptos aren't in the Top Ten anymore. NEM continues to be the absolute worst performer. Happy New Year, Happy New Decade!
The Experiment:Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.
Month Twenty-Four and Two Year Tally – Down 86% since January 2018Thought not quite as bad as November, December was a rough month in the cryptoverse: for the second straight month, each of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos ended 2019 in the red.
Finally tally after two years of this experiment? I am now down -86% on the 2018 Top Ten crypto portfolio since January 2018. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $136.
This isn’t quite the record low: the 2018 Top Ten bottomed out at -88% in January of 2019.
The best month this year for this group of cryptos was June 2019, where this portfolio reached a -71% return on initial investment.
Ranking and December Winners and LosersFor the second straight month, there was no upward movement: every crypto either held onto its position or slid. Stellar, Cardano, and NEM, each dropped a position, down to #11, #13, and #29 respectively.
December was not kind to IOTA and Dash: IOTA fell three spots to #23 and Dash dropped four positions to #26.
December Winners – Bitcoin pretty much broke even, down only -2% in December. Second place goes to Bitcoin Cash, down -6%.
December Losers – For the second month in a row, I’m going to have to give the loss to Dash. Although it virtually tied with IOTA and Dash (both down -21%), Dash also reached a new low, settling down at #26. A reminder: since January 2018, Dash had never ended a month in last place until last month.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses after two years of the 2018 Top Ten Cryptos Experiment. Most monthly wins (6): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month.
FINAL RESULTS after tracking this group through 2018 and 2019: Bitcoin is well in the lead, followed distantly by Litecoin, then Ethereum. NEM and Dash are the worst overall performers.Although down -46% since January 2018, Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the rest of the field. Litecoin and Ethereum are virtually tied at a very distant second place down -81% and -82% respectively.
That’s what victory looks like for the Top Ten 2018 batch of cryptos.
If that’s victory, what’s defeat?
NEM has performed the absolute worst, down -97%. in two years. My initial $100 investment is now worth $3.47.
But NEM is by no means alone at the bottom: 60% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten are down at least 90%: NEM, Cardano, Dash, IOTA, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash.
As you’ll see on the chart above, 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, Stellar, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, Tezos, and BTCSV. Three coins (NEM, Dash, IOTA) have dropped out of the Top Twenty and one (NEM) is in danger of dropping out of the the Top Thirty. Quite a fall in two years.
Of note, with the exception Cardano, the Top Five cryptos have more or less stayed put over the course of the twenty-four month experiment. Also of note: Litecoin has maintained perfect consistency, ending 2017, 2018, and 2019 glued to the #6 position.
For extra credit, does anyone remember which crypto finished 2018 in the lead?
Answer – Stellar.
Probably not what you were thinking, huh?
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:The crypto space lost $9B in December, which isn't much for crypto and nowhere near the $50B which evaporated in November. The overall market cap is now back to the $189B mark, last seen in May 2019.
Two Year Final Market Cap Figures:
Bitcoin dominance:Bitcoin dominance ticked back up in December and ends 2019 at 68%, a level not seen since September 2019 and much higher than 2018’s year end figure of 52%.
For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:After an initial $1000 investment, the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $136, down about -86% in two years.
Although the overall market ended 2019 stronger than the year before, the 2018 Top Ten Experiment cryptos finished at more or less the same level: last year the portfolio recorded a -85% loss and was worth $152.
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,153.
That’s down about -42%.
Implications/Observations:Congratulations to Bitcoin which significantly outperformed the rest of the field at the end of the first two years of the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund experiment.
Two years on, there are a few obvious takeaways from the 2018 experiment. Buying at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and it has not yet come close to just breaking even. The high point of this experiment was at the end of the very first month (January 2018) where the portfolio was “only” down -20%. I haven’t run the numbers, but by eyeballing and with hindsight, it’s easy to see that it would have been much better to come in at just about any other time during that first year. The portfolio would still be down, but not like this – not like this.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse – hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day 2018 have seen a -86% drop – but yes, it could have been even worse.
For each of the first twenty-four months, the experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -67% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -86% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-four months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Currency Experiment.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +21% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$210 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Conclusion:Although the 2018 Top Ten Experiment cryptos ended 2019 pretty much where they began, the market overall saw some solid gains in 2019. 2018 ended pretty hopelessly as crypto seemed to be in free-fall. 2019 overall felt like a recovery story, as a bottom was reached. With The Bitcoin Halvening due to arrive mid 2020, it should be another interesting year in the crypto space.
Thanks and Future of the Experiments:Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment(s). I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
As for the future of the experiment, why not, let’s keep this thing rolling:
edit: changed a bad link
submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]
The basics of crypto-trading: indicators, charts and trend lines
Halving on the Bitcoin network has become one of the key events in the cryptocurrency market, which has fueled the interest not only of long-standing players, but also has caused the release of new ones. This is evidenced by recent data on the growing demand for crypto assets on top cryptocurrency exchanges such as Bithumb Global. For those who are just getting acquainted with the crypto-market and want to try their hand at trading a new class of assets, we will tell you what tools crypto-exchanges offer and how to use them in crypto-trading.
To start trading cryptocurrencies, you must first select:
• Crypto-wallet — there are several types of crypto-wallets: hot, cold, desktop, mobile and paper. All of them provide different levels of security and convenience. At the same time, the best option for storing cryptocurrencies is the use of two different wallets — hot and cold. So do most large companies working with digital assets.
• Crypto-exchange is a trading platform that will allow you to exchange, buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Such platforms can be centralized (CEX), decentralized (DEX) or hybrid, combining the qualities of CEX and DEX.
• A crypto-portfolio is a collection of crypto-assets collected for profit. It is best to form it in three stages: part of the currency for long-term storage (from 1 year and longer), another part — a medium-term deposit (up to six months) and a deposit for trading for several days or a week. When starting crypto trading, it is advisable to diversify your investment in a deposit for trading, paying attention not only to the potential of a particular coin, but also to the ways of earning that the cryptocurrency market offers. Experts advise at the initial stages to choose assets from the top 10 rating by capitalization.
Terminology• Order — a trader’s request for a cryptocurrency transaction. Orders are divided into market orders — for purchase (Buy) or sale (Sell), and pending — requests for a transaction at a non-market price, waiting for it to be at the right level. Pending orders include:
⁃ Limit — for sale / purchase at a price higher / lower than the current market price
⁃ Stop loss — orders to limit the loss
⁃ Take Profit — Take Profit Order
• Market maker and market taker are market participants who create and accept orders. The market maker creates a new transaction request, increases the turnover of the exchange and raises the liquidity of the crypto asset, while the receiving market taker takes the asset out of circulation, lowering its liquidity. In this connection, different commissions are introduced on some crypto exchanges for makers and takers.
• Exchange Cup or Order Book — a table with limit orders, which displays the closest sellers and buyers, where sellers’ orders are marked in red, and buyers are marked in green. The columns of the table show the number of cryptocurrencies and the price at which they intend to sell or buy. At the junction of these tables, a spread is formed — the difference in the price of supply and demand. The lower the spread, the more liquid the cryptocurrency. The analysis of the stock market is a leading indicator of the state of the market, since it allows you to predict changes before they happen.
• Long and short positions (Long and Short) — the usual “mode” of trading. In the case of a long position, we buy cheaper and sell more. It is believed that the growth of assets in the market is a long process, therefore, work in this direction is also called long. The second option means a short position, that is, a game for a fall. The market believes that the decline in the value of assets occurs quickly, that is, in a short time. Therefore, this position is called “short.”
• Exchange chart — shows the change in the price of cryptocurrency over time and is the most important tool for technical analysis. Charts display price changes with a line, bar and candlestick.
• Bulls and bears — in the market so-called buyers and sellers. There is an analogy with the nature of animals: buyers always push the price up, creating a demand for something, and it turns out that the price seems to be pushed by horns. In this connection, bulls are optimists, they believe that the prices of the shares they bought will rise, and someday they will sell the asset more expensive than they bought. The bulls in the market are overwhelming (by approximate estimates, up to 80%), long investments are kept on them, and the bull trend means stable growth of stocks and general welfare. Bears, in turn, are sellers who have learned to capitalize on a falling market: they usually try to sell cryptocurrencies faster, often lowering the price of an asset. Concluding a contract for the sale, they fix its value, and then wait until the goods fall in price, close the deal and put the proceeds in their pocket. Bears are interested in a constant reduction in prices and achieve their goal, provoking an increase in supply: open short positions and sell until the price drops to the desired level.
• Technical analysis is a set of tools for market forecasting of prices based on the movement of value in the past. In technical analysis, the same tools can be used for different markets and trading pairs with a slight adjustment of indicators. Also, technical tools are equally successfully used on any timeframes — from a minute to a year.
• Fundamental analysis — this type of analysis is based on the consideration of financial and production market indicators that may affect the price of a traded instrument. The mood of market players, current and growing trends, indicators of production activity — all this information can give an extensive idea of the potential of the investment object in question. The main disadvantage of the fundamental analysis is that the information provided by him is insufficient to predict the movement of prices in some local areas. It is possible to determine a potentially good company that has excellent financial performance and has real prospects, but it will be impossible to determine the moment of entering a short-term profitable trade with a good indicator of risk to profit ratio.
• Pattern — behavioral model / trading setup / market pattern. Patterns are one of the most common methods for analyzing price movements. Each pattern is always based on a certain idea, the simplest and most understandable. There are a lot of trading models, but all of them are derived from the classical model of breakdown or rebound from certain significant price levels.
Basic cryptocurrency trading tools at Bithumb GlobalUsing the example of a centralized cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb Global, we will analyze the main elements that cryptotraders will encounter in the initial stages of trading. When choosing a cryptocurrency exchange, first of all, you need to pay attention to the presence of:
⁃ Convenient ways to deposit and withdraw funds
⁃ Fiat currency support
⁃ High number of trading pairs
⁃ Information on the current state of cryptocurrency rates
⁃ Cryptocurrency Rate Charts
⁃ Technical indicators
⁃ Different levels of user verification
⁃ Built-in cryptocurrency wallet
⁃ 24/7 tech support
On the Bithumb Global main page, a selection of top trading pairs is offered, where cryptocurrency tickers are listed, their price, exchange rate for the last day, daily trading volume and the asset quotes movement chart.
Top trading pairs at Bithumb Global. Source.
If you select a pair from this list, then Bithumb Global will automatically transfer the user to the Base Version of Spot Trading. Spot trading — the terms of the transaction with cryptocurrency, in which payment is made to both parties immediately.
Here the user can get acquainted with the latest price of an asset, the volume of transactions with it, data on transactions and the minimum and maximum prices for the last day.
Basic Version of Spot Trading on Bithumb Global. Source.
You can select another trading pair in the top menu by hovering over the corresponding button, but the easiest way is to find the desired pair through the search. At the same time, the Professional Version of Spot Trading opens up a wider set of tools for the user, which will be discussed later.
Trading Tools Professional Version Bithumb GlobalOn the Professional Version, users can use price charts in the form of Candles, which look like a series of vertical lines and display price changes, where the upper point shows the maximum that the price has reached and the lower one — the minimum. If the closing price is lower than the opening, then the candle will be painted red or black, and if higher, then green or white. Knowing the direction of the price movement (body color of the candle), we can say exactly where the closing and opening prices are.
Price chart in the form of Candles at Bithumb Global. Source.
Also in this version of Spot Trading, a price chart is available to users in the form of a Glass, where sellers ‘bids are marked in red and buyers’ bids are marked in green. The analysis of the stock market is a leading indicator of the state of the market, since it allows you to predict changes before they happen. If, for example, a large congestion of sales requests at the upper price limit can be noted, then as soon as the market reaches this limit, a recession will provoke, triggered by a large number of sales.
Price chart in the form of a Glass on Bithumb Global. Source.
Price charts also have different timeframes — from 1 minute to 1 week, which allows you to conduct a more in-depth analysis of the movement of quotes of the selected asset.
Bithumb Global price chart timeframes. Source.
Also in this version of Bithumb Global, various Indicators are available to traders. In total, the cryptocurrency exchange provides about 80 different indicators that will help in the technical analysis of the movement of crypto asset quotes.
Let’s analyze the main indicators available on Bithumb Global:
• Volume — allows you to track the number of transactions completed by traders over a specific time interval. Green and red bars are indicators of the volume of transactions: red signals a decrease in volume, green — its growth. By analyzing the volume of transactions against the background of the price movement chart, you can confirm the strength of the trend or reveal its weakness and predict a price reversal. If prices rise and trading volume rises, we observe a bullish trend. An increase in trading volume in the event of a decline in prices indicates a bearish trend.
• Moving Average (MA) is just as popular a tool as volume is. The indicator function analyzes the average prices for the selected time interval, which gives a relative idea of the general price trends. If the actual price of cryptocurrency for a long time keeps above the moving average, we can assume that it will continue to grow. Accordingly, a fall below MA is a signal to lower the price of an asset. For more accurate forecasts, it is advisable to use several moving averages based on different time intervals. Moreover, in case of disagreement, it is customary to consider the value of the average based on a longer period of time. If the signals from several moving averages coincide, we can talk about a fairly accurate forecast.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) — having trained on one moving average, we will move on to a comprehensive analysis of this indicator. The MACD tool analyzes the convergence and divergence of three moving averages and can signal the beginning of a new trend. MACD also works well on different timeframes and is a fairly simple and popular indicator of technical analysis.
• Zig Zag is an auxiliary indicator that analyzes the highest and lowest points of the cryptocurrency exchange rate and allows you to determine the correct entry points into the market. The plus of the indicator is that it eliminates the noise that can distort the forecast of the trend behavior. Minor fluctuations are simply not taken into account: lines connect the highest and lowest points of the price chart directly. The zigzag shows global market movements, but at the same time it only captures these changes in the past, without giving forecasts on the price behavior in the future.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) — shows the greatest efficiency in a sideways trend. With active course dynamics, RSI may produce incorrect data. Such indicators of technical analysis are called oscillators, and they must be used with caution. The indicator’s algorithms analyze price changes and allow you to evaluate the oversold or overbought status of an asset and, therefore, predict the occurrence of a bull or bear trend.
• CCI (Commodity Channel Index) — The CCI or Commodity Channel Index, as well as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), helps evaluate overbought or oversold assets. This chart with values from minus 100 to plus 100 is displayed under the current price chart and can be applied on any timeframes. A CCI of more than a hundred means that the asset is overbought, and the price is about to fall, and on the contrary, a CCI below minus one hundred indicates the oversoldness of the asset and the likely increase in its price. This tool also refers to oscillators and is used during a lateral trend when there is no clear idea of how the price will behave in the near future.
• ADC and DI — the index of the average direction and direction of movement, signals a change in trend. It looks like three lines on the chart: red — bears, green — bulls, blue (there may be other colors on different platforms) — the strength of the trend. This indicator is fairly reliable on four-hour and day frames. If the trend strength line is within 10−20 points, this indicates that the trend is gaining strength, but if the indicators reach 60−80 points, you should wait for the trend correction. The green and red lines will show who sets the market mood — bulls or bears. If the green line crosses the red line, the trend becomes bullish, and vice versa.
Indicators at Bithumb Global. Source.
Another useful tool available on the Professional Version of Bithumb Global is Trend Lines. It allows you to demonstrate in which direction the price of an asset is moving. The Dow theory, which is the basis of all technical analysis, suggests that no matter how the price behaves, it will always be in a particular trend. If the price behaves relatively evenly and stays in the same range without showing either growth or decline, such a trend is called a side or flat trend.
A growing (“bullish”) trend is characterized by the appearance of a series of ascending highs, with each new peak must be higher than the previous one. Accordingly, the “bearish” downtrend shows points of failure (price low), each subsequent of which will be lower than the previous one.
A trend line can be built on two points of a minimum or maximum, and a third confirming one is mandatory. The more points form a trend line, the more confident and stable the trend itself. The construction points should not be too close to each other in the time frame, otherwise the direction of the trend will not be completely correct. Please note that the uptrend line is plotted below the chart, and the downtrend is above it. The slope on the trend line should also be taken into account — its constancy indicates the stability of the trend. The change in the angle of the trend line is called the acceleration or deceleration of the price movement. The larger the angle, the faster the trend.
A line through price lows is called a support line. As soon as the price reaches it, it finds market support there and, pushing off, again strives upward. The line connecting price highs is called the resistance line.This is the level above which the value of the asset has not yet risen. If the price breaks the support or resistance line, this is a clear signal for a trend violation and a change in trading tactics.
Trendlines at Bithumb Global. Source.
FinallyThe above are the basic trading tools available to traders of the Professional Version of the Bithumb Global crypto-exchange. They will help you figure out how to properly analyze the key metrics of cryptocurrency assets so that you can build the most advanced trading strategy. However, this is not the whole range of tools available to Bithumb Global traders. Follow DeCenter materials to learn about the intricacies of cryptocurrency trading on the advanced cryptocurrency exchange.
Subscribe to our Telegram channel
60% of all bitcoin has not moved on the blockchain for at least 1 year. This is an indication of significant hodl'ing. The last time this happened was in early 2016, at the start of the bull run.
Every week, we bring you fresh news and forecasts for Stellar lumens. And our forecasts have been correct so far: the price is growing. If you are hodling XLM in your XLMwallet, you're being wise, because the fundamentals are all in Stellar's favor!submitted by Stellar__wallet to XLM_wallet [link] [comments]
A lot of things can happen in one month, and for Stellar all the change has been positive! Just look at this chart:
From $0.05 to $0.07 – that's a 40% increase! Well done, Stellar, we believed in you. After all those months in the red, people are starting to rediscover the power of Stellar – the best crypto for payments, in our opinion.
Now that the Bitcoin halving has come and gone and the coronavirus pandemic situation is getting better, you should be asking: what's next for Stellar? Is the global recession good for it? Is the end of the pandemic good for it?
In our opinion, the answer is yes and yes. You see, Stellar is fantastic for cross-border payments. And who sends most such payments? That's right, people who work abroad and send remittances home. For months now they've been stuck without work. But as the virus recedes and the economy starts to recover, these hundreds of millions of workers will start sending money home again.
It's inevitable that they turn to crypto sooner or later. Sending money with wire transfers and Western Union is expensive – and now is not the time to waste any money. When those work migrants set out to look for the cheapest way to make a remittance, they'll come upon Stellar.
In just 3-5 seconds, you can get money from any point in the world virtually for free. This is the power of XLM. Can you imagine those workers sending money in BTC, waiting for an hour for their transaction to confirm and paying $1 every time? Once they find out that they could be paying virtually zero, they won't even look at Bitcoin.
Of course, there's the question of cashing out your XLM. It's not as easy to convert lumens into fiat as it is with BTC, but it's definitely possible. Perhaps we'll even write a whole post about it!
The recent partnerships that we wrote about last time are another proof that Stellar is making fast progress on the way to being a major means of payment and investment. The consequences of the coronavirus will give it another push that it needs. So, our forecast is: up and up. If you have Stellar in your XLMwallet, definitely keep them there.
As for precise figures, we expect the price to rise to $0.1 by August. That's another 40%, but we think it's totally doable for Stellar.
Now, we always tell you that XLMwallet is the perfect wallet to send lumens to your friends and pay for goods and services. And that's true – we don't know of any other wallet that would be so light, fast and easy to use. But this time, we advise you to hold on to your XLM. If you need to make a purchase, rather do it in some other cryptocurrency. Because if you spend your Stellar now that in 3 months it grows by 40%, how will you feel? Disappointed, right?
Do you agree with our $0.01-by-August prediction? If not, share your own forecast in the comments.
Website — https://xlmwallet.co/
Medium — https://medium.com/@XLMwalletCo
Teletype — https://teletype.in/@XLMwalletCo
Twitter — https://twitter.com/XLMwalletCo
Reddit — https://www.reddit.com/XLM_wallet/
Follow the Bitcoin price live with the interactive, real-time chart and read our expert articles on the latest BTC news, forecast and technical analysis. No discussion of Bitcoin’s price would be complete without a mention of the role market manipulation plays in adding to price volatility. At that time, Bitcoin’s all-time high above $1000 was partly driven by an automated trading algorithms, or “bots,” running on the Mt. Gox exchange. Bitcoin point-and-figure price chart, 11 23 19. Stockcharts.com. That 7450 level is gone, as you can plainly see here. The earlier-in-the-year 7150 level has been taken out as well. The next level Point and Figure Charts (PnF) are another example of a chart type that relies solely on price movements and not time intervals during the creation of the chart. In this way, PnF Charts are similar to Renko, Kagi and Line Break Charts. Crypto Point & Figure Charts. Above: Triangle breakout targets. Point and Figure charts are a form of chart analysis that does not use volume or time – just price. Whereas American Bar Charts
[index]          
Steve Lentz shows how to incorporate point & figure charts into your trading. Point & Figure is a unique indicator that does not plot price against time as all the other technical indicators do. This Eerie Bitcoin Fractal Sees BTC Price Above $70,000 By Mid-2021 As Bitcoin stays motionless near $9,100, one of its old fractals is pointing to a full-fledged breakout towards $70,000 or above. Today you will learn about point and figure charts. Mark is an active trader and shares his technical analysis of the charts. He is not a professional advisor but shares his knowledge so that you ... ROKU, STMP, BKNG EARNINGS - S&P Live Trading, Robinhood App, Stock Picks, Day Trading & STOCK NEWS Stock Market Live 3,422 watching Live now The Wyckoff method is a five-step method of market analysis for decision making. 1- Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. T...