Crypto Volatility : Volatility
- Crypto Volatility : Volatility
- Where, Oh Where Has Bitcoin Volatility Gone? Part 2 By
- The Bitcoin Volatility Index Price and More
- MOVE contracts – FTX Exchange
- Implied Volatility
Cryptarbitrage’s Deribit Spreadsheets Calculation Tools
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Perpetuals, Futures, and Options can present quite a steep learning curve, fear not though as we have an incredible collection of Google Sheets and Excel Spreadsheets to help both the basic as well as most advanced users! We can also strongly recommend reading our Educational and Market Research articles
as many traders find them to be invaluable resources.
One of our talented Community Managers, Cryptarbitrage, has created and maintains to the best of his ability a series of tools to both help Deribit users learn more about BTC & ETH Perpetuals, Futures, and Options as well support more advanced traders increasing technical needs. A short introduction by Cryptarbitrage: "Although I was aware of options beforehand I only started properly researching them in early 2018 after I discovered the Bitcoin options on Deribit. I do not need much encouragement to build a spreadsheet for something so quickly set about created an Excel sheet that would show me the profit and loss of any options position I entered. This was a great way to learn all the profit and loss formulas for each type of option as well as how different option combinations interacted with each other. As soon as this sheet was complete I was building positions I still didn’t even know the proper names for so was very much learning by doing. It was immediately obvious to me though that options were the type of instruments I wanted to trade. After a few months and once I’d done some more reading and was more confident I actually knew what I was talking about I began creating shareable versions in google sheets and sharing them with the Deribit community."
Feel free to ask for some help or guidance in our English Telegram Community.
Cryptarbitrage’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptarbitrage
Cryptarbitrage’s Telegram: u/Cryptarbitrage
English Telegram Community: https://t.me/deribit
Deribit's Position Builder
Link: pb.deribit.com It is invaluable to be able to see the potential profit/loss, implied volatility of a single or multiple positions quickly, and adhoc. This allows you to check the results of either simulated positions, the live positions of your account, or a combination of these all across multiple instruments including Perpetuals, Futures, and Options at the same time.
The Position Builder can be used to analyze the results of either existing or simulated results. As it uses market data from Deribit it provides a quick tool to check the results before adding positions into a portfolio. Development Credit to the core Deribit development team
Scenario Risk Analysis “Maximum Pain” - Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ANS1CgApJCDTX5ZjUwO_fegU7Z-QVSdt/view A resource to visualize the Open Interest at the present moment as well as the current price of maximum pain for option buyers.
Basic Resource Tools Simple Perpetual/Future Position Size Calculator - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQh11IJgb4HOt8B-HDWG_HX9hta1832piynuI4k-v-A/edit?usp=sharing This spreadsheet allows you, in both BTC, ETH, and USD, to provide the amount you are willing to risk and to determine the relative size of the position you should take to achieve this.
Simple Options Profit/Loss - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FRbKfvlr721ZIyPNsLwI0_WtGhuvdWfWLC-UOE1Yi1A/edit?usp=sharing A means to learn how to manually create your own options mathematics which can be applied across your own spreadsheets, programs, and possibly automated trading tools.
Simple Perpetual/Futures Liquidation Price - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tcb-NzRV_ATDlkKi8LqTorpGYQyv0DQgj9W_AbIFJ2M/edit?usp=sharing An easy and quick to use tool to assess your estimated liquidation price, present Leverage as well as expected Maintenance Margin requirements.
Deribit Margin Requirement Calculations - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xSb8Y_nVF1-8ICZHfQNjDWaeqBjqQfGzrYR7Ymgvi84/edit?usp=sharing A simple tool to understand and visualize both your Initial Margin (IM) and Maintenance Margin (MM) requirements for Perpetuals, Futures, and Options.
Simple Leverage Examples - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CIcEq-0V2LeNeMos68MdMN-DqEDvKVclcqc5LVhFSAo/edit#gid=0 A quick and easy way to understand how leverage works on Deribit!
Education Introduction to Cryptocurrency Options (BTC & ETH)
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/exchange-updates/introduction-to-bitcoin-options-profit-loss/ An introduction specifically to BTC Options, which can be applied to ETH Options, describing the basics of options and the specifics of cryptocurrency options on Deribit. Introduction to Leverage and Margin
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/education/introduction-to-leverage-and-margin/ An introduction to Leverage and Margin on the Deribit Exchange. Hedging the USD value of your BTC or ETH on Deribit
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/education/hedging-usd-value-by-shorting-1x/ An introduction as to how to peg your present cryptocurrency holdings (BTC or ETH) at the present market value of BTC/USD or ETH/USD for each asset on Deribit.
Comprehensive Resource Tools Comprehensive Options Profit/Loss - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vWn9f7kJ73ufuP8qa05Ct76DO58WkwyXVsGcUP2fkMY/edit#gid=1852961659 Learn how to create advanced multi-leg option positions as well as test possible edge cases or specific scenarios.
If you are a retail trader and would like to pull historical data we recommend you use our API
. If you would like data prepared or more specific data we recommend taking a look at our data providing partners. Deribit Perpetual Historical Funding Rates - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XHLiXHdFWKeXBc2WaqCp5-amcHzAyuorp7bW-Y8XfXI/edit?usp=sharing A simple sheet to either manually check or use as your data source for funding rates across both BTC Perpetuals and ETH Perpetuals on Deribit.
Excel Tools: Live Deribit Trading Data - Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/exchange-updates/live-data-in-excel/ A fully-featured Excel spreadsheet that can either serve as your central resource to pull live data from the Deribit Exchange or can form the base of building your own advanced spreadsheet. Pull Old Data with an Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e_cWT2XZ_OXuckobcTMJU4lLI72zrzsdRkZWY-xmghE/edit This can be appended to the “Live Deribit Trading Data - Excel Spreadsheet” or included in your very own to pull historical data. Pull Options’ Greeks with an Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zaj1YIP6k3sQuG2QSqzkT77rxqdZDTZ5UiJCnqScgPU/edit This can be appended to the “Live Deribit Trading Data Excel Spreadsheet” or included in your very own spreadsheet. Pull Open Interest with an Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SRRAAmDj8c75AzDwqvDO4i1dCnXQMRLC_C6wUMLAo-E/edit This can pull the present Open Interest of an instrument using the aforementioned “Live Deribit Trading Data - Excel Spreadsheet” or demonstrate the functionality for you to incorporate in your own spreadsheet. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Credit must go to Cryptarbitrage for the creation of all Google Sheets and extended Code Snippets for Excel and Lennard for the creation of the original Excel Spreadsheet. June - 2020
Bitcoin ROI Increases With 3,500% Compared To Traditional Assets Amid Bullish Lookout
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The Return-On-Investment For Bitcoin Surpasses The Performance Of Traditional Assets 70 Times In Times When BTC Is Anticipated To Pass The $10,000 Line Blockchain
analyst Justinas Baltrusaitis stated that Bitcoin’s
investment returns from June 26, 2015, to June 26, 2020, have increased with over 3,500%, which outperforms the traditional market performance over seventy times.
Baltrusaitis published his report on Buy Shares, citing that the biggest cryptocurrency
to date managed to gain over 70 times the performance of major indices like Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nikkei, Nasdaq, and Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 (FTSE 100).
“During the five-year span of the report, Bitcoin recorded a 3,456.98% return on investment. In June 2015, the price per Bitcoin sat at $257.06, while five years later it rose to $,143.58. On the other hand, major indices marked an average ROI value of 49.27%”, Baltrusaitis noted. Source: Buyshares
For instance, FTSE 100 stayed in red, with a 6.96% ROI decline, while Nikkei rose with 11.94%, Dow Jones marked a 42.16% ROI increase, S&P 500 is slightly in front of Dow Jones with 46.23%. Nasdaq marked the highest five-year ROI, with 96.77%.
Baltrusaitis clarified that ROI is calculated with a base price when crypto holders bought Bitcoin, compared to current prices. Any Bitcoin purchases before December 2017 should see massive ROI gains.” Baltrusaitis added.
According to the crypto analyst, regulations and the recent coronavirus
pandemic may have impacted the ROI scores. Also, Baltrusaitis emphasized on how users now perceive Bitcoin “as a store of value, rather than a speculative asset, especially amid the most recent stock market crash.
“Over the past five years, Bitcoin faced increasing popularity, mostly due to its maiden cryptocurrency status in the eyes of crypto newcomers. These factors largely contributed to Bitcoin’s high return on investment. However, the ROI comes despite the widespread opinion Bitcoin and crypto holding involve a high degree of risk.” Baltrusaitis concluded.
On the other hand, as CryptoBrowser reported
, there is a substantial correlation between the prices of Bitcoin and traditional stock markets in the face of the S&P 500. Any price volatility in the traditional sector may cause Bitcoin’s price to peak or dip, just like in the March market wipeout. Source: CryptoBrowser
Meanwhile, Bitcoin bulls still stay shy of pushing, as the price per BTC stays around $9,200, which is below its 20-day Moving Average. If bulls are to to flip the $9,200–$9,500 resistance zone this could clear the path for Bitcoin to reach $10,000. The current situation, however, implies that if Bitcoin can’t support a close of over $10,400, its price may tumble to the $8,800 support zone.
Where is Bitcoin Going and When?
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The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool
, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite
goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
- Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not
- VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
- Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
- Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
- Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
- Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
- Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
- Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
- Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
- Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
- Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21
, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence
model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets
cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory
implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle
is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
- 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
- 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
- 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
- 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
- 11/14/20 – stock market low
- 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
- 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
- 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
- 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work
| || |Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]
The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, integrating with the traditional and inheriting complex financial products such as futures and options.
Some types of fixed-term contracts are already firmly established in the bitcoin industry. This is noticeable by the activity of traders on the CME.
However, the situation with options is somewhat different. These derivatives are difficult to understand among ordinary market participants and are not yet so popular.
Nevertheless, there is a demand for such tools, as evidenced by the growth dynamics of this market segment and interest from platforms such as Binance and Bitfinex.
Bitcoin options have already been offered on CME, LedgerX and Bakkt, which are regulated and oriented primarily on whales. Among the unregulated sites, the leader is Deribit, followed by FTX and OKEx.
ForkLog magazine figured out what options are and what types of options are. We will talk about the features of these tools and the current state of affairs in the segment. In this article you will also find comments by leading market experts on the role of options in the industry.
What are options and how do they work? An option
is a financial contract concluded between two parties — the holder and the seller. The first receives the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain amount of the underlying asset at the strike price (strike price) on a specific date (expiration date).
The seller undertakes to buy or sell the asset at the request of the option holder. The latter pays the seller at the time of purchase of the contract a certain amount of money — the so-called premium
The rights and obligations of the holder and seller differ significantly. The former has the right to choose whether to exercise the option or not. The seller is obliged to fulfill the terms of the contract at the request of the holder.
Parameters such as the type of underlying asset, expiration date, strike price are fixed at the time of issue of the contract, after which they cannot be changed.
Like futures, options are derivative financial instruments and derivatives. This means that they can be based on various underlying assets (BA) — stocks, indices or cryptocurrencies. “Like the options already existing in traditional finance for all major assets, there are contracts based on BTC and ETH on the cryptocurrency market. They are very interesting financial products“, said Su Zhu, head of Three Arrows Capital, in a conversation with ForkLog.
Options are used both for hedging risks and for speculative trading. For example, a speculator confident in the growth of the underlying asset buys a call option. If the BA price rises above the strike, the trader can use his contract to buy a discounted asset. “Derivatives such as options allow users to hedge risks and generate revenue. Derivatives play a key role in the traditional financial market. These tools are needed so that the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and develop, being filled with new participants“, said Aaron Gong, vice president of Binance Futures.
Practical use of options
Consider the simplest example of options hedging. Suppose there is a company manufacturing tomato paste, sauces and ketchups. There is a farmer supplying this company with tomatoes. He acts in conditions of fierce competition, close to perfect.
It is extremely important for a company to buy raw materials cheaper to minimize production costs and remain profitable. The farmer, in turn, hopes for a long-term cooperation with the company so as not to lose a major client.
The company offers the farmer an option, assuming the right to buy 10 tons of tomatoes of the next year’s crop at the current price — say, $1,000 per ton. To exercise this right, the company pays the farmer an option premium of 3% of the total transaction amount of $10,000, that is, $300.
The farmer will have to, at the request of the company, sell the appropriate quantity of goods at the above price and at a specified time.
A year later, the crop was high, which led to a decrease in the market value of tomatoes to $800 per ton. The company decides not to exercise its right to purchase raw materials for $10,000, as other farmers can buy the same 10 tons of tomatoes for only $8,000.
Thus, having lost only $300 as a premium on an option, the company is insured against price risk. Buying raw materials at a significantly lower market price is more than worth the price of the option contract.
Let’s imagine another scenario: the crop turned out to be unimportant and the price of scarce tomatoes jumped to $1200 per ton. Then the company will certainly take advantage of the right to purchase tomatoes for $1000. Thus, the result is any case.
It is easy to guess that the options can be used by miners to hedge the risks of adverse changes in the price of the extracted asset. For example, expecting a decrease in the price of BTC, miners can use options that give them the right to sell cryptocurrency in the future at a price higher than the breakeven point. “Miners are already very active in options markets. And, probably, they will remain active“, Su Zhu said.
Su Zhu is confident that in the long term, options will make the cryptocurrency spot market more liquid and attractive to a wide range of participants. He added that the growing popularity of such contracts among miners could significantly reduce sales pressure. “Options give miners the opportunity to fix the price of coins mined in the future. Miners can better manage their production costs and protect themselves from market volatility“, said Aaron Gong, expressing confidence that the popularity of options will continue to grow.
According to him, such tools open up new opportunities and may be of interest to speculators, funds and long-term cryptocurrency holders. “Institutional investors are also showing growing interest in options and other derivatives. Last week it was reported that the famous Wall Street trader Paul Tudor Jones allocated a few percent from his Tudor BVI fund for bitcoin futures. This is a positive signal, which means that more and more institutions are interested in the cryptocurrency market“, Gong added.
However, option strategies are not suitable for every market participant — effective work with these tools requires certain experience, Co-founder of CoinIndex.agency Julia Sporysh is sure: “Of course, in order to use this effectively, the miner must have an experienced trader (option strategies are some of the most difficult on the market) — or they will have to unite and work through specialized trading companies. This market exists, although it is not for the general public.”
Also, according to her, options may be of interest to funds and retail traders who have gained a hand in speculative trading.
“Options are an independent and good speculative tool. And if you have positions in futures or in the spot market, it’s just the time to explore new opportunities
“, added Yulia Sporysh.
Types of options
There are two main types of options — option call
and option put
. The first gives the right to the contract holder to purchase a certain amount of the underlying asset from the seller (they also say — the inscription
) at the strike price on a certain date in the future. This type of option was used in the tomato example.
The put option, on the contrary, gives the buyer of the contract the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price. The latter may be higher than the market at the time of expiration, which is beneficial to the trader.
Market participants use the call, predicting an increase in the price of BA, and put — expecting it to decline.
More complex strategies use combinations of these two types of contracts.
There is also the term “covered option
”. For example, an option call is covered if the seller has the amount of the underlying asset corresponding to the terms of the contract.
Options may also differ in the style of execution
— American or European. European-style
options require the holder to execute the contract exclusively on the expiration date. Such options, in particular, are presented at CME and Bakkt. American style
implies the possibility of contract execution at any time prior to the date of expiration. Options of both styles are traded all over the world, their names have no relation to geographic location.
There are less standardized, exotic options
. However, the popularity and importance of such instruments in the financial market is not so great.
Parameters and conditions for trading certain options are described in the specifications
for them, which indicate the expiration date, strike price and other elements of the contract.
Premium, strike price and cash option The option premium
is the amount of money paid by the buyer to the seller. The premium is equal to the value of the contract and, in fact, represents a fee for the risk of adverse changes in the value of the underlying asset.
The option premium is formed by two components:
• Intrinsic value
— the amount that the buyer would receive if the contract were currently executed. It depends on the ratio of the price of the underlying asset and the strike.
• Time value
— depends on the time remaining until expiration. Usually, the less time it takes to execute a contract, the lower the premium.
As a rule, high price volatility contributes to premium growth, and vice versa. A deal with a close strike price in relation to the current one has much greater chances of closing in profit and, therefore, the premium for such an option will be relatively high. The strike price
is the price fixed
in the option at which the buyer of the call option can
buy (or sell, if this is a put option) the underlying asset. In turn, the seller of the contract is obliged
to sell or buy BA. Money
is an indicator of the ability to receive funds from the exercise of the right to exercise a derivative. In the context of options, cash can be calculated by comparing the spot price of the BA and the strike price of the option. Thus, three options are possible:
• “in the money”
option: in the case of a call — if the spot price is higher than the strike (then the intrinsic value of the contract is positive), in the case of a put, on the contrary, if the BA price is lower than the strike;
• option “on money
” (or “with one’s own”) — equal strike to current stock quotes, intrinsic value equal to 0;
• the option “out of money
” (“without money”) — the exercise of the option is not economically feasible; in such a situation, the current price of the underlying asset is lower than the strike price of the call option or, conversely, the spot price of the BA is higher than the strike price in the case of a put.
There are many option trading strategies. Four basic approaches can be distinguished. Long call
— buying a call option, the investor expects an increase in the price of the underlying asset above the strike on the expiration date of the contract. Then he will be able to buy an asset at a discount to the market price and thus earn on the difference. If the price drops below the strike, the buyer risks only the premium paid for the option. Long put
— is a kind of alternative to a short position in the spot market. The buyer of the put option hopes to make money, assuming that the price of the BA falls below the strike at the time of expiration. In this scenario, the investor may sell the asset at a higher price than the market price.
Also, through a put option, an investor can limit the risk of a fall in the price of an asset that has a long position open. According to Su Zhu, miners may use the “protective put” strategy, in whose activity a substantial and prolonged drop in the price of mined cryptocurrency is undesirable. Through such tools, miners can provide profitable or even break-even activity. Short call
— the investor acts as the seller of the contract, counting on a decrease in the price of BA below the strike on the date of expiration. However, the higher the price of the asset, the more losses the inscription bears. Thus, the risk of the seller of the contract is unlimited, and the profit potential is limited by the premium on the sale of the call. Short put
— the seller of such an option expects a premium on it, being firmly convinced that the price of the BA will be higher than the strike.
Combinations of these basic strategies may underlie more sophisticated options trading approaches, such as:
• protective put
— purchase of a put option for an available asset;
(secured) call — an investor sells a call option to an existing BA or which will be acquired simultaneously with the sale of the option; the strategy reduces the risk of owning an asset, since a fall in its price is partially offset by a premium;
— a kind of bet on volatility, which implies the purchase of a call and put option on the same asset with the same expiration date and the same strike price;
— almost the same as straddle, differs only in different strike prices.
Options are complex financial instruments, their mechanism of work is unlikely to be mastered immediately by most novice traders. Nevertheless, these derivatives may seem interesting to experienced market participants and, in particular, to miners.
The following advantages and disadvantages of options can be distinguished. Of the advantages of these contracts, we note:
- flexibility of use in speculative trading;
- the ability to use many combinations and trading strategies;
- a good tool for hedging risks;
- the ability to use in any trend — upward, downward, sideways. Disadvantages:
- the difficulty of understanding the mechanism of work, especially for novice market participants;
- asymmetric conditions and, accordingly, risks for the buyer and seller;
- the complexity of trading strategies;
- the volatility of an option premium, which depends on the proximity of the expiration date and price dynamics in the spot market;
- low liquidity.
Different industry players have different cryptocurrency options. Some consider them promising tools useful for miners, funds, retail traders and the market as a whole. Others are convinced that such derivatives are archaism.
Nevertheless, options are gradually taking root in the cryptocurrency market. This is evident in the dynamics of trading volume and open interest. In addition, more and more exchanges are trying to add support for these contracts, which contributes to increased competition and further development of the industry. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
Bitmex Options Shenanigans
submitted by matt2048 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]
This post is a look at the recently released Bitmex Up and Down contracts and the lack of clarity around them and the issues that has caused. There will be a little bit of maths and options terminology, but I'll do my best to try to keep it simple.
Background and Contract Specification
Bitmex released the Weekly Up Contract (XBT7D_U110) for live trading on the 30th Apr, with the Weekly Down contract (XBT7D_D90) coming later, on the 14th May. Both contracts are essentially European style options contracts (with the addition of a knock out price for the Down Contract), which settle weekly on Fridays.
This was an interesting development on the part of Bitmex. They made 2 posts on their blog (1
) explaining the situation. Although, the blog posts weren't posted on the website announcement feed nor (to my knowledge) on their twitter, so many people (including myself) missed them.
While the contracts came with the usual Bitmex explanation of specification and example, what struck me was the fact that:
- Throughout the whole contract guide there wasn't a single reference to "Options", despite that being the nature of the contacts.
- Traders aren't allowed to short them - "Only the BitMEX anchor market maker can be net short".
(Full screen shots of the guides as of 15th May 2018 can be found at the bottom of the article)
We now have the issue of a contract that many traders will have no idea how to price, that is consequently trading over 10x higher than fair value, and only the market makers are allowed to short.
Options pricing and Fair Value
The Up contract is equivalent to a European style options call, while the Down contract is a slightly modified European options put. Options contracts give the buyer the right (but not obligation) to buy (call) or sell (put) at the given strike price on the settlement time (European style).
European style options contracts are generally prices using the Black-Scholes model
, which is used to calculate the fair price of a contract along with measures of its sensitivity to various factors such as underlying price and volatility (known as Greeks). Options Fair Pricing vs Current Pricing
At time of writing the Up contract (XBT7D_U110) last trade price is 0.00300 BTC (~$25.57), with 2.89 days until expiry. The Bitmex historical volatility index is currently 54.15%, strike price is $9500 and Bitcoin is $8530.
The black-scholes calculator
suggests that the fair price is actually $1.916. And that is the calculation for a 1 Bitcoin contract. Where as the Bitmex contracts represent 0.1 XBT each. Making the fair value $0.1916, rather than the current $25.57. Which is a bit insane.
What if we use a higher value of volatility for our calculations, will the price be a bit more reasonable? Similar contracts trading on a different exchange have an implied volatility of ~75% annualised. This gives a fair value of $1.351 for each Up contract.
I've also occasionally seen Bitcoin volatility reach up to 120% or higher. This value still gives a fair value of $7.870.
In other words, even by the craziest stretch, the Bitmex contracts are trading way higher than their fair value - and only the Bitmex designated market makers are allowed to short.
Options profit outlook
Now, what if the contracts were trading at fair value, what is the probability that the options would actually expire "In the money" (payout not zero).
One of the "Greeks" calculated under the black-scholes model, Delta, is generally used as a measure of exposure to the underlying asset, but can also be used as a probability that the option will expire in the money.
The absolute of Delta (non negative value) gives said probability. A call contract with Delta 0.75 has a 75% chance of expiring ITM. A put contract with a delta of -0.3 has a 30% chance of expiring ITM. Probability of expiring In the Money
So, what are the chances of our Up and Down contracts expiring ITM? The Up contract's ticker is "XBT7D_U110", meaning that it expires every 7 days and its strike is placed at 110% of the trading price at the start of the trading period.
Again looking at the Bitmex volatility index at 54.15%, the Delta of this contract over 7 days comes to 0.1087, only an 11% chance of expiring in the money. 75% volatility gives Delta at 0.1933 and 120% gives Delta 0.3119. Not the best bet however you look at it.
For the Down contracts its even worse, with Delta being -0.07458 (7.458%), -0.1431 and -0.2367 for 54.15%, 75% and 120% volatility respectively.
The likelihood that any of these contracts actually pays out any money is rather stacked against the trader. And, as I've mentioned before, only the designated market makers are allowed to short these contracts to collect the price premium.
Are Options ever worth it?
Options trading is a wide and very mathematical discipline to master. When contracts are traded fairly (with reasonable pricing and without restrictions) options trading can be very profitable and allow all sorts of novel trades, such as betting on volatility.
However, in its current state, I personally wouldn't touch the Bitmex Up and Down contracts with a 10 foot pole. They are over priced and restricted from the ability to short. I have seen Bitmex as a generally reputable exchange in the past, however situations like this make be question that assessment.
Contract Guide Screenshot
I tried to archive the Bitmex contract guides with both archive.fo/
, however neither worked, so I used web-capture.net/
for screenshots instead. The full screen shots can be found here: Up Contracts
, Down Contracts
Disclaimer This does not constitute professional financial investment advice.
My original blog post with nicer formatting can be found here
I'm also happy to take constructive criticism and amend the post if necessary.
edit: Thanks to happy__hippo
for pointing out the Bitmex posts about the contracts
. I've amended the article to reflect this.
Set and Drift | Analysis - Estimating Future Income from the FIRE Portfolio
Cultivate an asset which the passing of time itself improves. – Seneca, Letters XV Overview submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]
The focus of the voyage to financial independence so far has been designing the portfolio, and measuring the distance still to travel. There is more basic question to be asked as the journey progresses - will the portfolio produce the income targets set for it, or will something need to change?
Currently, the income estimates from the portfolio targets - $67 000 from a short-term target of around $1.6 million and $83 000 from a target of around $2.0 million in several years - are set on an assumption of a total portfolio return of 4.19 per cent.
That does not mean, however, that the portfolio will simply automatically produce an income of that level. Just pointing the ship in the direction of travel is not enough. This is because the total return assumes both capital growth and distributions or interest.
This analysis examines what income the portfolio is likely to produce when the targets are achieved, and assesses whether or not selling down or changing the portfolio in other ways to meet the income goals may be necessary.
To answer this question, history and three different methods of estimating the potential income produced by the portfolio are reviewed. Approach #1 - Navigation by landmarks
The first approach is to simply use what is already known to establish one’s position.
Previous analyses have discussed the overall trends in portfolio distributions, and reached some approximate estimates of the likely underlying level of distributions. These estimates differ according to the precise method chosen, and time period considered. So far, these analyses have established that the portfolio appears to be generating between:
- $5 000 per month or $60 000 per year, if an approach where the moving average of the past three years of distributions is used; or
- $3 800 per month or $45 000 per year, if a conservative approach of an average of the past four years of distributions is applied.
This is healthy progress, however, both of these figures are short of the Objective #1 income requirement of $67 000 per year (or $5600 per month), and even further from the projection of $83 000 (or $6 900 per month) under Objective #2. Will the future look like the past?
These historical figures are useful because they are real data based on holdings in the actual portfolio. Their disadvantages are that they are backward-looking. This has two possible impacts.
First, the growth of more than 50 per cent in the total portfolio size over even the past three years means that the level of historical distributions will underestimate the income generation potential from the now larger portfolio. In short, this is like trying to estimate interest from a bank account by looking at your balance three years ago.
Second, the distributions of three or four years ago will reflect past asset allocations, and investment products. As an example of this, two years ago the portfolio contained over $55 000 invested in Ratesetter’s peer to peer lending platform. This was earning an average income return of 9.1 per cent. Today, Ratesetter is less than half of this size, due to a slow asset reallocation process and withdrawals as loans mature.
This suggests a purely backward view of the actual achieved distributions may be incomplete and misleading. Taking an average distribution rate approach
The other potential way of estimating the income return of the portfolio is to use the average distribution rate of the portfolio in the past.
The rate is calculated as total distributions over a defined period divided by the average portfolio level over the same period.
This eliminates any errors from the first impact discussed above of growing portfolio growth size, as it is a rate rather than a level measure. It does not eliminate the second impact. For example, higher interest rates meant that cash holdings in 2013-14 could make up over third of total distributions, a position not likely to reoccur in the short or even medium term.
Yet it still may be an approximate guide because while overall portfolio asset allocation has shifted in the past two and half years, it has remained within some broad bounds. As an example, total equity holdings were at 70% of the portfolio both 5 and 10 years ago. Additionally, using a median long-term average of 4.4 per cent will tend to reduce the impact of one-off changes and outlier data points. [Chart]
As established in Wind in the Sails the average distribution rate over the past two decades has been around 4.4 per cent.
This implies that the portfolio would produce:
-$5 900 per month or $70 300 per annum income when the portfolio is at Objective #1 (e.g. this suggests that the target income at Objective #1 would be met, with around $3 000 to ‘spare’). - $7 300 per month or $87 100 per annum income when the portfolio is at Objective #2 (e.g. as above it suggests meeting Objective #2 would produce around $4 000 more income than actually targeted).
An interesting implication of this is that the portfolio has been producing distributions (at 4.4 per cent) at a rate that is higher than the overall rate of assumed long-term total return (around 4.2 per cent).
This is consistent with the fact that the Vanguard funds, and to some extent shares and other ETFs have been realising and distributing capital growth, not just income. This means that if I truly believe my long-term total return forecast is more accurate than the distributions estimate, I would need to re-invest the difference, to ensure I was not drawing down the portfolio at a higher rate than intended. Approach #2 - Navigation by 'dead reckoning'
A different approach to reaching an income estimate from the portfolio is to forget about the actual history of the portfolio, and look to what the record shows about the average distribution rate from the asset classes themselves.
That is, to construct an hypothetical estimate of what the portfolio should produce, based on external historical data on average income from the individual portfolio components of Australian shares, international shares, and fixed interest.
To do this, estimates of the long term income generated by each of the asset classes in the portfolio are needed. For this ‘dead reckoning approach’ I have used the following estimates.
Table 1 - Asset class and portfolio income assumptions
Asset class Allocation Estimated income Source Australian shares 45% 4.0% RBA, 1995-2019, May Chart Pack International shares 30% 2.0% RBA, 1995-2019, May Chart Pack Bonds 15% 1.0% Dimson, Marsh and Staunton Triumph of the Optimists 101 Years of Global Investment Returns, Table 6.1 Gold/Bitcoin 10% 0% N/A Total portfolio 100% 2.55%
This analysis suggests that at the target allocation for the portfolio, based on long-term historical data, it should produce a income return of around 2.6%.
This equates to:
- $3 400 per month or $40 700 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #1
- $4 200 per month or $50 500 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #2
These figures are also well short of the income needs set, and so imply a need to sell down assets significantly to capture some of the portfolio's capital growth. Abstractions and obstructions
Of course these figures are highly averaged and make some simplifications. Year to year management will not benefit from such stylised and smooth average returns. Income will be subject to large variations in distribution levels and capital growth will vary across asset classes and individual holdings.
Another simplification is that is analysis does not include the value of franking credits. If it is assumed that Australian equities continued to pay out their historical level of dividends, and the franking credit rate remains at the historical average of around 70 per cent then Australian shares dividends should yield closer to 5.2 per cent, lifting the total income return of the portfolio to around 3.1 per cent. In turn, this would marginally reduce the capital sell-down required. Adjusting for this impact means the portfolio income would be $4100 per month at Objective #1, and $5100 per month Objective #2
Yet these assumptions can be challenged. It is possible that the overall dividend yield of the Australian market will fall and converge with other markets. This would be particularly likely to happen if further changes to dividend imputations or the treatment franking credits to occur. It could also occur due to a maturing and deepening of Australian equity markets and domestic investment opportunities available to Australian firms. Shorter term, uncertainty around the future ability of shareholders to fully benefit from franking credits could encourage a payout of credits currently held by Australian firms. Approach #3 - Cross-checking the coordinates
Due to these simplifications and assumptions, it is appropriate to cross-check the results of one method with other available data. An alternative to either a purely historical approach using distributions received, or the stylised hypothetical above discussed in Approach #2, is relying on tax data.
Specifically, taxable investment income can be estimated as the sum of the return items for partnerships and trusts, foreign source income and franking credits (i.e. items 13, 20 and 24) in a tax return.This has been previously discussed here.
Using this data is - of course - not independent of my own records of distributions. It's benefit is that it strictly relies on verified data provided in tax calculations. This will include income distributions and realised capital gains from within Vanguard funds, for example, but will not pick up unrealised capital gains.
As with Approach #1, as the portfolio has changed in size and composition the absolute historical levels of taxable will not necessarily produce the best estimate of the expected level of distributions looking forward. For example, because it is drawing on a period in which the portfolio was smaller, a five year average of investment income would suggest future annual investment income of $32 300 or $2 700 per month.
So instead an 'average rate' approach can be used to overcome this. Over of the past five years, the portfolio has produced an annual taxable investment income of around 3.5 per cent of the value of portfolio. This in turn implies an average taxable investment income of:
- $4700 per month or $56 000 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #1; and
- $5800 per month or $69 000 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #2
Once again, these estimates imply the existence of a significant income gap remaining at reaching both portfolio objectives. Summary of results
So far historical data from the portfolio and three different approaches have been set out to seek to answer the question: how much income is the portfolio likely to produce? Comparing estimates and income requirements
These individual estimates (blue) and the average of all estimates (green) are summarised in the charts below, and compared to the monthly income requirements (red) of both of the portfolio objectives. The chart below sets out the estimates for Objective #1. [Chart]
The following chart sets out the same data and projections for the portfolio when it reaches Objective #2 (a portfolio total of $1 980 000). [Chart]
The analysis shows that:
- Portfolio income is likely to be below target at reaching Objective #1 - Using the approaches and history as a guide the portfolio should on average produce an income of around $57 000 per annum at Objective #1
- And also below target at Objective #2 - When Objective #2 is reached portfolio income should on average be around $71 000
- Therefore an income gap does exist to solve - Under most estimation approaches there will be a significant income shortfall at reaching both Objective #1 and #2
- The gap is significant, but not disastrous - Assuming an equal weighting to the three approaches and actual historical distributions over the past three years the size of the income gap will be around $900 per month at Objective #1 (or $10 200 per annum) and greater, around $1000 per month at Objective #2 (or $12 000 per annum)
- Only one estimation approach doesn't identify a gap - Only if the 'average distribution rate' approach under Approach #1 is accurate will there be no income shortfall.
This implies that at the $1.6 million target of Objective #1, a small portion of any portfolio gains (around 0.6% of the value of the total portfolio) would need to be sold each year to meet this income gap. An identical result applies at the Objective #2, around 0.6% of value of the total portfolio would need to be sold annually.
Another intriguing implication of the reaching the average estimates is that it allows for an approximation of the required portfolio level to rely entirely on portfolio income, and avoid any sale of assets. At both portfolio Objectives the average of all estimation approaches indicate portfolio income of around 3.5 per cent.
Reversing this figure for the target portfolio income (e.g. for $67 000 at Objective #1 is 0.035/67000) implies a portfolio need of $1.91 million. For the higher target income for Objective #2, the implied portfolio required to not draw down capital is close to $2.4 million. This would require many additional years of future paid work to achieve. Trailing clouds of vagueness
There are many caveats, inexactitudes and simplifications that should loom large in interpreting these results. The level of future returns as well as their income and capital components are unknowable and volatile.
In particular, the volatility of returns introduces key sequence of return risks that are simplified away by the reliance on deceptively stable historical estimates or averages. Particularly sharp movement in asset prices could change the asset allocation. Legislative or market changes could change the balance of income and capital appreciation targeted by Australian firms.
For these reasons, the analysis does not make me consider any particular remedial action. It indicates that under a range of assumptions and average outcomes, there will need to be a sale of some investments to meet the portfolio incomes targeted.
The same analysis shows that the superficially attractive choice to live only off portfolio income would in reality mean aiming for a target around 20 per cent higher - needing an extra $300 000 to $400 000 - potentially adding many years to the journey.
The relatively small scale of the required sales is the most surprising outcome of this analysis. Selling around 0.6 per cent of the portfolio annually does not on its face appear to be a high drawdown in most market conditions.
Another potential issue to consider is what this result means for asset allocation. There is no doubt that history would suggest that the income gap could be reduced by either reducing the bond allocation, or lower yielding international shares.
To give a sense of the magnitudes of this - using the 'dead reckoning' Approach #2 set out above - allocating 100 per cent of the equity portfolio to Australian shares would produce around $900 per month (or $10 300 per year) additional distributions at the Objective #1 portfolio of $1.6 million.
In theory, this domestic shares only option would all but close the income gap. Yet the benefits of diversification and risk reduction bonds and international shares offer make this a trade-off to consider, not a clear choice. At present, my plan would be to revisit this issue at my annual review of the portfolio asset allocation.
In the meantime, having produced these estimates has helped starting to think in more concrete terms about the draw down phase, its challenges and mechanics. In a small way, this seems to clear some of the clouds away, and enable me to glimpse some possible futures more clearly. The post and graphs can be viewed here. Note: The historical average estimate for this purpose has been proportionally adjusted to increase based on the increased size of the portfolio between now and reaching Objective #2
Deribit Option Theory and Calculation Sheets made by Cryptarbitrage
One of the community managers of Deribit, Cryptarbitrage, provides traders with useful option calculation sheets and writes articles that explain the option trading theories. In this thread we collect his sheets and articles. He posts mainly on twitter (@cryptarbitrage) and the Deribitofficial Medium page. submitted by Deribit to DeribitExchange [link] [comments]
A short introduction by Cryptarbitrage:
"Although I was aware of options beforehand I only started properly researching them in early 2018 after I discovered the Bitcoin options on Deribit. I do not need much encouragement to build a spreadsheet for something so quickly set about created an Excel sheet that would show me the profit and loss of any options position I entered.
This was a great way to learn all the profit and loss formulas for each type of option as well as how different option combinations interacted with each other. As soon as this sheet was complete I was building positions I still didn’t even know the proper names for so was very much learning by doing. It was immediately obvious to me though that options were the type of instruments I wanted to trade.
After a few months and once I’d done some more reading and was more confident I actually knew what I was talking about I began creating shareable versions in google sheets and sharing them with the Deribit community."
Option theory articles
The links to Cryptarbitage his articles.
Introduction to Bitcoin Options Profit/Loss
An introduction to options. A break down on what options are and how you can trade them. You will find examples of how PNL is calculated and settled with option trades.
Multi-leg Options Positions (Part 1 — Straddles and Strangles)
An introduction to Straddles and Stranglers. In this article straddles and stranglers are explained. You will find examples how to set them up and how to calculate what the possible PNL would be.
Multi-leg Options Positions (Part 2 — Call Spreads and Put Spreads)
An introduction to Call Spreads and Put Spreads. In this article spreads are explained. You will find examples how to set them up and how to calculate what the possible PNL would be.
Multi-leg Options Positions (Part 3 — Butterflies and Condors)
An introduction to Butterflies and Condors. In this article butterflies and condors are explained. You will find examples how to set them up and how to calculate what the possible PNL would be.
Introduction to Options Pricing and Implied Volatility (IV)
An introduction on how to use Implied Volatility as strategy for your trades.
These sheets are free to use, all you need to do is save a copy and you can edit the numbers to your desire.
Deribit Liquidation Price Calculator
A simple single position estimated liquidation price calculator.
Deribit Leverage Calculator
A simple single position leverage calculator. You can use either leverage, position size or available margin as input.
Deribit PNL Calculator
A simple single position perpetual and futures PNL calculator.
Deribit Position Builder
A position builder where you can put in several option positions as well as futures and perpetual positions and see the expected overall PNL in a graph according to different expiry prices. Next to that you can add a second position and compare the potential outcome.
"Position builder 2.0. Quite a bit more user friendly than the last one. Check boxes added to add/remove legs, drop down menus to choose call/put, buy/sell and chart range, and the ability to enter two separate positions making comparisons much easier."
zqooN - Deribit - February 2019
AMA - Community Edition
Updated: 11) $5m buyback 12) Release of yp part 3? 13) It is allegedly possible that ICX supply can be doubled in only 4 years thanks to a whopping 20% annual token inflation 14) One of the things that got me excited about crypto was that there was no inflation. I'm a bit disappointed in Icons approach here. 15) Where is the DEX? 16) How far are we from interoperability? Am I correct in saying that interoperability is years from completion? submitted by msg2infiniti to helloicon [link] [comments]
I'll be answering all questions to the best of my knowledge, this list will update regularly. 1) Clear description how icx will go up by benefiting from the line partnership. -> 2 or 3 practical examples.
Don't forget Unchain is a joint venture, so Unchain is ICON's company as well, their success is directly beneficial to ICON. In a recent interview w Brad, Henry also shed some light regarding this JV and that it is way beyond a simple partnership agreement https://youtu.be/paFYyt1hVWc?t=155 2) Clear description how icx will go up by building private blockchains and connecting them. -> 2 or 3 practical examples.
I answered this to someone on telegram a couple days ago. Here's my example,
"So I asked what's the use for icx with private chains. They have no reason to connect to the public chain and they have no reason to tokenzie their business."
The missing link is interoperability. The private chains need a way to communicate w each other, this is actually how the ICON project was conceived. ICONLOOP(loopchain then) offered blockchain solutions to enterprises and consortiums, but they had no way to interoperate
So I think the argument originated from, if the design paradigm is emergent for private chains to go public, or interoperate through a public chain as a common block
We've heard about those use cases and see actual implementations from U-coin vending machines to hospitals making insurance claims etc
I agree in some cases it doesn't make sense for private chains to go public, if its designing a problem to solve, lets not do that
but i'd say, a random guess, that 90%+ of the private chains have a reason to connect, much like intranet/internet
Let me try another example, we've heard the hospital/insurance too many times
Let's say there's a trade financing supply system of a large manufacturer w thousands of vendors
before their enrollment, you'll probably need to do some identity and reputation check in the public chain (common services like ID validation should readily be available as a public service, like chainID)
that will validate their legitimacy.. then next step is prolly for the vendors who need the trade financing where they need a more complex system like a stable coin to avoid volatility.. and move the money around
instead of rebuilding a coin, they could adopt a coin system within the ICON network
then what happens next.. i guess disputes w goods lost or quality problems.. again, vendors can call for a public arbitration system where there'll be a network of lawyers who specialize in cross-border disputes or arbiters to provide the service
so we need a chain of services that can be called throughout the life cycle, interoperable between private and public chains
there are plenty more use cases, but its not a hard choice to make, its definitely possible to have a common meeting point while maintaining sensitive information within their local blockchain
In the example above, nothing is tokenized, their businesses are on the private blockchain without a native coin, but they use the common services from the public like stable coins or arbitration system 3) Monthly or quartal reports on partnerships, marketing, and the tech.
You mean something like this? https://medium.com/helloiconworld/icon-3q-achievements-8c42ea798a0b 4) Opinion why korean people dont bring icx volume on korean exchanges.
I don't think even president Moon has an answer to this :P But are people really this patriotic when it comes to money? Do Americans invest in American ICOs for being made in USA? I guess some will, but this is not (and shouldn't be) the main driving force of token demand. 5) Clarification what kind of understanding we should have about this 124 teampower - are they employees with 40 hours/week working contracts or just 2 hours, cooperations partners, freelancer, what ever.
I paid a visit to the KR office a couple months back, it was like a giant coding factory running full steam. I can attest to this, they're full time employees working around the clock. 6) Roadmap - stop giving yourself room for delays and interpretations by not offering a roadmap.
My suggestion on this one is to have a % completion roadmap with change logs. I think most people are more interested in progress, less deadlines. 7) Quarterly AMAs.
Sounds good. 8) Why the hell are ICON members still advisors at Sentinel Protocol, a ICO that promoted itself using icon as blockchain and then moving to EOS.
As far as I can tell, the two teams are still in good relationships. Timing was unfortunate, SP always had their first product (uppward) scheduled to launch shortly after their fundraising. Public presale also ended a lot faster than expected (scheduled to run for a week, ended in 3 minutes). During the period ICON was migrating to mainnet V3 and doing token swap. It made sense for them to deploy on a working platform, without compromising their schedule. Their team also said that they haven't ruled out the possibility to migrate back to ICON (although I think its less likely this day). 9) Spend some money on an english translation expert for you social media appearance.
The translations (YouTube subtitles) were a bit sloppy I agree, understandable enough but they should definitely spend more time proof reading, professional presentation is a thing. 10) How much from the received ICO money/ether has been provided directly or indirectly to iconloop.
The raised ETH from ICO are barely spent, you can check on etherscan from the contribution address. 11) $5m buyback
From the key announcement by ICON foundation’s CFO Jay, the repurchase program is a pending legal matter, after consultation with law firms they’ll proceed with the buyback. https://youtu.be/keDitkWssv8?t=160
The team stated two main intentions for conducting this program,
- Show the community the team’s long term commitment to the project even during times of uncertainty (bear market)
- Revitalize the community and expand ICON ecosystem, with the buyback tokens (incentive programs probably).
If you read between the lines from the buyback announcement https://medium.com/helloiconworld/key-announcements-from-icon-8ea0f5a18d6f
Repurchases under the foundation’s program will be made in open market or privately negotiated transactions subject to market conditions, applicable legal requirements, and other relevant factors.
What this is saying is that, the buyback has no intention to create short term pumps, otherwise all purchases would’ve been made in the open market under a timed schedule. What this also implies is that, there won’t be a public wallet with an open schedule, to avoid legal obligations (insider trading) or unintended purposes (manipulation).
So what is to be expected? Giving a deadline won't make sense because everything can be timed, so my take is that an announcement will be made after the repurchase has been completed. I don't think anyone can take advantage of this program but will still benefit directly with $5M worth of tokens off the market supply. 12) Release of yp part 3?
This is expectedly a highly anticipated yellow paper, as it will likely outline all the details we need to know about staking. This YP however is not just a simple table with your annual returns, this is also technically far more complex than the previous two YPs.
I provided a very simplified explanation for IISS in this thread: https://twitter.com/2infiniti/status/1020141186797846529
IISS is however a lot more complicated than this, it is a full AI based incentive scoring system to explore the optimal incentive scheme to vitalize the ecosystem. On top of incentives, it is also the base metrics for governance policies (voting). Incentives are designed with token economic studies, to reinforce target behavior, based on operant conditioning principles, eg. dormant accounts, distribution schemes based on activity levels, penalties for malicious nodes etc, and it is very difficult to get right.
If you look into the WP
, IISS further explored with things like mitigation of inequalities, weighted average and adjustment, efficiency of IISS, fairness of distribution, prevention of misusage and many other topics explored in depth.
The point is, this YP is very complex, and personally I’d wish the team to take as much time as it needs to get it done right. IISS will ultimately decide the overall health of our ecosystem, its sustainability and well, our passive income.
With that said, I am also with you that I’d love to see the details asap, as I have plans to build a tool similar to the Virtual Step Calculator
where people can easily calculate their returns. From the announcement at least, it does look like the team is close to completion and labeled the release "soon", so let's just have a little patience and let them do all the necessary last checks.
Also as a reality check, YPs are researches that need to be formalized, implemented and iterated enough times before an official release. So please don’t expect to start staking right away when YP pt3 sees the light. 13) It is allegedly possible that ICX supply can be doubled in only 4 years thanks to a whopping 20% annual token inflation
Please go to this thread for my explanation: https://twitter.com/2infiniti/status/1060397068852748288 14) One of the things that got me excited about crypto was that there was no inflation. I'm a bit disappointed in Icons approach here.
Most crypto token issuance models can be broken down into these 3 categories
- Finite supply with a hardcap, tokens issued over time. Eg. Bitcoin, Litecoin
- Fixed initial issuance, after that no more tokens will ever be created. Eg. Augur, Golem
- Continuous issuance. Eg. Ethereum, ICON
All of the above models can work in their own ways, depending on the behavior its trying to incentivize. Sustainable crypto economies are backed by a recursive loop of value transfer that all participants are incentivized to participate in. The goal is to create an incentive loop that all parties act in their own self-interest, then creating greater value.
Let’s take a look at bitcoin’s incentive loop, a simple model where mining is profitable, more miners create more security and security adds intrinsic value.
Mine bitcoin -> market dynamics decide value -> incentive to mine -> security of network increases -> more incentive to mine ←|
Trusted prediction platform -> more stakes in events -> more incentive for REP holders to verify truth -> more people verifying, more trusted ←|
In ICON’s case, incentives are centered around i_score, which is a function of activities within the network. The incentive loop would look something like this
I_score rewards and governance control (votes) -> more incentive to participate in activities and governance policies -> increased network security and activity ←|
Similar incentive loop found in SCORE
SCORE staking (virtual steps) -> increased activities -> sustainable SCOREs ←|
Now for continuous issuance models, the goals are no different from other models. They want to issue tokens, just enough that it is optimal for maintaining security and encourage participations, creating a healthy incentive loop.
But can’t these models infinitely issue to a point where my money is worth next to nothing?
Yes, this is in theory possible. For Ethereum, with majority of network miners approving such change (say removing ice age), and a new Ethereum client to accommodate this change, resulting in an issuance similar to a 51% attack. Since issued ETH is also linked to the value of a single token, this will render ETH much less valuable. In practice, this is extremely unlikely to happen, as miners are financially discouraged by doing so, since they have much more to lose, just part of the game theory.
ICON’s issuance is a system implementation which depends on activities happening in the network. There are also preventive measures such as issuance upper bound and representative mitigations. I explained issuance model in full in this thread: https://twitter.com/2infiniti/status/1060397068852748288 15) Where is the DEX?
For this one hear the explanation directly from Min: https://youtu.be/tk2tZpnrI0o?t=1662 16) How far are we from interoperability? Am I correct in saying that interoperability is years from completion?
Not entirely. Interoperability will likely take a few phases to roll out, what we should be anticipating for right now is BTP (Blockchain TransfeTransmission Protocol) specification.
What is exactly is BTP?
From the abstract level, BTP creates a mechanism by which two channels may pass messages to each other. BTP assumes that multiple channels (eg. private blockchains from ICONLOOP) running on the ICON network under their own state and logic, at the same time connecting to the base channel for consensus mechanism. This is the simplest form of interoperability.
Down the road we should expect more and more advanced versions, handling threat models, connection lifecycles, asynchronous requests, and all sorts of optimization and so forth. This is enabling interoperability between blockchains one phase at a time, gradually reaching the end game of hyperconnecting the world.
So how long is this going to take?
I do not know. But the purpose of this reply is to explain that interoperability is not an on-off switch, but will likely take many phases to roll out.
What Bitcoin’s Valuation Says About Its Volatility
| || | submitted by GTE_IO to u/GTE_IO [link] [comments]
Article by Coindesk: Noelle Acheson
Most of us think we understand the term “volatility.”
We digest headlines about tense political situations around the world; we are wary of explosive chemical compounds; some of us have had relationships with their fair share of ups and downs.
“Volatility” implies sharp and unpredictable changes, and usually has negative connotations. Even when it comes to financial markets, we intuitively shy away from investments that would produce wild swings in our wealth.
But volatility, in finance, is usually misunderstood. Even the most commonly accepted calculation is often incorrectly applied.
Its desirability is also confusing. Investors hate it unless it makes them money. Traders love it unless it means too high a risk premium.
And few of us understand where it comes from. Many think that it’s the result of low liquidity*. This intuitively makes sense: with thin trading volume, a large order can push prices sharply up or down. But empirical studies show that it’s actually the other way around: volatility leads to low liquidity, through the wider spread market makers apply to compensate the additional risk of holding a volatile asset in their inventory.
(*The misconception also stems from our mistaken conflation of low liquidity and low volume — it is possible to have high volume and low liquidity, but that’s for another post.)
This confusion matters in the crypto sector.
Bitcoin’s volatility has often been cited as the reason why it will never make a good store of value, a reliable payment token or a solid portfolio hedge. Many of us fall into the trap of assuming that as the market matures, volatility will decrease. This leads us to believe in use cases that may not ever be appropriate; it can also lead us to apply incorrect crypto asset valuation methods, portfolio weightings and derivative strategies that could have a material impact on our bottom line.
So it’s worth picking apart some of the assumptions and looking at why bitcoin’s unique characteristics can help us better understand market fundamentals more broadly.
First, there are different types of market volatility. Academic literature provides an array of variations, each with its distinct formula and limitations. Jump-diffusion models used to value assets hint at a helpful differentiation. “Jump” volatility results, as its name implies, from a sudden event. “Diffuse” volatility, however, is part of the standard trading patterns of an asset, its “usual” variation.
With this we can start to see that, when we assume that greater liquidity will dampen price swings, we’re talking about “jump” volatility.
“Diffuse” volatility, however, is a more intrinsic concept.
The standard deviation calculation — the most commonly applied measure of volatility — incorporates the destabilizing effect of sharp moves by using the square
of large deviations (otherwise they could be offset and masked by small ones). But this exaggerates the effect of outliers, which are often the result of “jump” volatility. These are likely to diminish as transaction volume grows, leading to a misleadingly downward-sloping volatility graph.
JP Koning proposes an alternative calculation that uses the deviation from the middle value rather than the average, which reduces the effect of outliers and shows a more intrinsic volatility measure. As the below chart shows, this has not noticeably decreased over the years. (chart from Moneyness blog)
Now let’s look at why this might be. A clue lies in the methods used to value bitcoin.
Bitcoin is one of the few “real assets” traded in markets today, in that it does not derive its value from another asset.
What’s more, it is a “real asset” with no discernible income stream. This makes it very difficult to value. Even junior analysts can calculate the “fair value” of an asset that spins off cash flows or that returns a certain amount at the end of its life. Bitcoin has no cash flows, and there is no “end of life,” let alone an identifiable value.
So, what drives the value of bitcoin?
Many theories have been put forward, some of which we describe in our report “Crypto’s New Fundamentals.” And as the market evolves, some may rise in favor while others get forgotten or superseded.
For now, though, the main driver of bitcoin’s value is sentiment: it’s worth what the market thinks it’s worth. In the absence of fundamentals, investors try to figure out what other investors are going to think. Keynes likened this to a contest in which “we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”
Gold is in a similar situation, in that it is also a “real asset” with no income stream and a market value largely driven by sentiment.
So, why is its volatility so much lower?
(chart from Woobull)
Because of “radical uncertainty.”
In his book “The End of Alchemy”, Mervyn King explains that under “radical uncertainty,” market prices are determined, not by fundamentals, but by narratives
Bitcoin is a new technology, and as such, we don’t yet know what its end use will be. Everyone has their theory, but as with all new technologies, no-one can be certain, which makes its narrative changeable.
Gold, on the other hand, is neither new nor a technology. It has been around for millennia, and its narrative is not uncertain. Sentiment plays an important part in its valuation, and scientists may yet uncover an innovative use for the metal that affects both demand and price. But its “story” is well established, which gives it a lower volatility profile.
For now, bitcoin’s fundamentals are
its narrative, and the uncertainty about bitcoin’s “story” means that its volatility is unlikely to diminish any time soon.
A more prominent role
This matters for its eventual use case: will it always
be too volatile to be used as a payment token, store of value, etc.? This in turn impacts its narrative, which affects its valuation and volatility, which affects its eventual use case. The self-perpetuating loop will eventually be broken as the sector matures and bitcoin’s role as an alternative asset class becomes more firmly consolidated — when uncertainty diminishes and its “intrinsic value” becomes easier to quantify.
But until then, its price will continue to be driven by market sentiment, which is susceptible to changeable narratives that in turn are formed by global developments and also by market sentiment.
Until then, market shifts will continue to be amplified in either direction, whatever the trading volume.
Rather than fret about this, we should accept and even embrace it. Increasingly sophisticated providers are working on improving the access to and interpretation of sentiment data, which strengthens our analytical tools. Crypto Twitter provides an engrossing platform to gauge the sector’s mood. And the identification of the impact of narrative and sentiment on an asset class will open up new avenues of investigation that is likely to spill over into other areas of investing.
What’s more, volatility may be inconvenient for some and uncomfortable for many. But it is also an important component of superior returns. Perhaps the tools and skills we develop to hone our bitcoin valuation techniques will enable a more masterful handling of volatility’s inherent uncertainty, and allow for a deeper appreciation of what it has to offer. Roller coaster image via Shutterstock
WSB101 - THE BOOK OF YOLO: BEGINNERS GUIDE TO TRADING LIKE A DEGENERATE AND EVERYTHING WSB
The Book of Yolo: COMPLETE GUIDE TO WSB submitted by Thor303456 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
The goal of this is to actually create something that all of you WSB newbies can read - because we’re all tired of seeing the endless wave of uninformed and unavoidable stupidity from those who have never touched the stock market. CALLING ALL NEWFAGS AND NORMIES.
If you can’t read, GFY now.
Now that we will be on the popular section of reddit, this has become pertinent. WSB can't avoid newcomers, so we might as well explain how the clock ticks here. This one is for you all
This is to serve as a reference what values we hold, what instruments we use, and as a general place to educated the uneducated.
First off, this is the LEAST helpful stock market-based community for newcomers. Sarcastic answers are the only thing of true value here. It isn't a place to learn, but a place to plan out where you will dock your yacht. Newcomers are usually berated upon asking the inevitable stupid questions that they could learn slowly from reading here, or just using a damn search engine. Instead of embarrassing yourself here, you now have the opportunity to read this and get what we’re all rambling about.
This will help you understand what to expect if you make the decision to undertake a WSB style trading career, so you can stay here and contribute to the yolo lifestyle or otherwise GFY.
I will edit in any suggestions that our frequenting users or mods want to add to this as well.
To begin: Here are our topics for WSB101 -Basics (Equities/Stocks)
; -Futures Trading
Skip if you understand basic stock stuff
Okay, so what is an equity/stock? An equity is essentially what you’d think of as your “vanilla” trading tool. They move up or down depending on market forces, and can range from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. To explain how stocks work, let's define a few terms. Volume:
The number of shares of stock traded during a particular time period, normally measured in average daily trading volume. Spread:
The difference between the bid and the ask price Bid Price:
The current price in which someone wants to buy at Ask Price:
The current price in which someone wants to sell at Volatility:
The WSB favorite. Volatility is referring to the price movements of a stock as a whole. The higher the volatility, the more the stock is moving up or down. Highly volatile stocks are ones with extreme daily up and down movements and wide intraday trading ranges. Margin:
A margin account lets a person borrow money (take out a loan essentially) from a broker to purchase an investment. The difference between the amount of the loan, and the price of the securities, is called the margin. Margin is one of WSB’s popular instruments of wealth and destruction. Dividend:
This is a portion of a company’s earnings that is paid to shareholders, or people that own hat company’s stock, on a quarterly or annual basis. Not all companies do this. PPS:
Acronym for “Price per Share” Moving Average:
A stock’s average price-per-share during a specific period of time. Bullish:
Expecting the stock to go up Bearish:
Expecting the stock to go down
Any raised hands can redirect themselves to here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-market-works.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186
Now that these terms are defined, let's move into the details of why this is even useful. Most people know what a stock is, but how and why stocks move is a different story. The stock market is essentially a big virtualization of supply and demand - meaning that usually high positive volume creates upwards movement in the PPS, where high negative volume does the opposite. This creates a trader’s opportunity; Generally, the most effective time to buy or sell is where the candlesticks (volume data) are thinning out. When you are ready to take an entry point or execute an exit point, waiting till the volatility (candlesticks) thin out is one method to give you best trade possible. WSB FAVORITE EQUITIES:
Of many equities, WSB favors the riskier ones - but avoiding penny stocks is a policy.
AMD - CEO Lisa Su, Next Gen Processors, chips, graphics. It’s the gamers gambit. Up roughly 1400% as of 2/7/2017 since WSB first mentioned it
NVDA - AMD’s sister? Mother? Daddy? Who knows. NVDA has been a sexy semiconductor leader. Is up 400% since gaining traction on WSB.
FNMA / pfds - Mnunchin, Trump, Big fat fannies. Get your self deep in the fannie. We all want it. WSB 10 bagger candidate for reforming the housing market. WSB holds a large cumulative position that can be seen below. Also a good read is the beginners guide to FNMA. Any post by u/NOVACPA
is very often VERY informative on FMNA/pfds. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5oissp/results_wsb_fnmafmcc_holdings https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5t7gba/beginngers_guide_to_fnma_fmcc_read_this_before/
ARRY - A biotech champion that prevailed after a lot of failures and huge losses in the biotech sector. Dark times for WSB. Up ~300% since getting traction on the subreddit.
TWTR - WSB likes to buy put option contracts on her. Exemplary of a social media platform that is unable to monetize itself.
TSLA - Maybe not unanimously a favorite, but loved for it’s sexy volatility, Elon Musk, and ridiculously expensive options.
GILD - A Shkreli pump and dump? The greatest large cap pharma recovery of all time? Who knows. Martin took the time to make a post on this reddit and it is up $5 dollars since. ETF'S
Welcome to the world of investing made easy. Exchange traded funds (etfs) are devices that can be traded like stocks, but often track the value of many companies by investing in their listed assets accordingly. Specifically, An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors.
ETF’s come in beautiful and delicious varieties, often with a BEAR form and a BULL form of each; but the most delicious to WSB are the 3x etf’s. A 3x ETF is one in which the underlying movement of the ETF is leveraged 3:1. Meaning for every movement within the underlying index or stocks, the 3x ETF moves well.... 3x as much.. WSB FAVORITE AND USEFUL ETF’S:
JNUG - 3x Gold Miner Bull - A hit or miss, has extreme intraday movements and essentially tracks GDX (gold miner’s index). Jnug will usually move with a pretty strong correlation to gold, which is affected by the mentioning of rate hikes (negatively), movement of the US dollar (inversely), uncertainty (positively), and supply and demand.
NUGT - Jnug with a different price tag
JDST - The inverse 3x etf of JNUG - or the bear etf. It does almost exactly the opposite movements of JNUG by the tick. Moves for the same reasons, but obviously opposite directions.
DUST - Jdst with a different price tag.
UGAZ - Natural Gas 3x Bull ETF - essentially tracks the price value of the commodity Natural Gas, but more specifically the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. Natural gas is most affected by Weather temperature conditions (use your brain), petroleum prices, and broader economic conditions.
DGAZ - Inverse of UGAZ
UWT - Crude Oil Bull 3x ETF - extreme intraday movements, closely follows the price of oil. More specifically, it tracks futures. UWT seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER. The index tracks a hypothetical position in the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, which is rolled each month into the futures contract expiring in the next month. The value of the index fluctuates with changes in the price of the relevant NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts.
DWT - Inverse of UWT
FAS - Financial Bull, specifically FAS seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index. The fund creates long positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in the securities that comprise the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index and/or financial instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. Can be used when bullish on US financial services - so banks, lenders, etc.
FAZ - Inverse of FAS
UPRO - S&P500 Bull 3x ETF, essentially tracks the S&P500 and multiplies it’s returns by 3x.
BRZU - Tracks Brazil (in its most basic form). It creates long positions in the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.
LABU - Tracks the Biotech sector, or specifically 300% of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index ("index"). It should be noted that LABU has doubled since just before the election of Donald Trump.
LABD - Inverse of LABU
RUSL - roughly creates 300% of the performance of the MVIS Russia Index.
RUSS - Inverse of RUSL
SPY - Tracks the S&P500, but is not 3x. OPTIONS:
Alright, so half you are going to understand this, and half of you are not. Pull up an options chain now on any stock (penny stocks and specific stocks do not have chains because of their market cap). Options are truly the ultimate way to achieve maximum risk/reward.
An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price, on a certain date. This concept makes options a commodity themselves.
A CALL - is the right to buy. Buying calls is taking a bullish position in its most extreme form.
A PUT - is the right to sell.
The underlying - is the stock that the option is covering i.e. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN
Strike Price - the price at which a put or call option can be exercised.
ITM, In the money - In the money means that a call option's strike price is below the market price of the underlying asset or that the strike price of a put option is above the market price of the underlying asset. Being in the money does not mean you will profit, it just means the option is worth exercising.
OTM, Out of the money - a call option with a strike price that is higher than the market price of the underlying asset, or a put option with a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.
ATM - At the money - Strike price at the same price as the underlying
Expiration - Expiries for options are every friday of every week usually, with exceptions such as every month, or every other day - depending on the underlying. SPY and SPX are great examples of very active option chains with expiries every other day. On the expiry date or any time before (with american options), an option can be, but doesn’t have to be exercised, meaning the holder of the option can use it to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock at the strike price. Most people on WSB do not exercise the contracts, but merely flip them for increases in value as the underlying moves.
For example, when AAPL was at 120 before its earnings report, Joe Shmoe Yolo buys 10 FEB 17th CALLS at strike 127 for .60 , each. Now .60 cents is really 60 dollars each, because the contract is multiplied by 100 (the right to 100 shares). In total, Joe Shmoe Yolo spends $600 dollars + commision on this trade. The next day, AAPL leaps to 130 upon great news. These same option contracts are now worth 3.50 each. $350 dollars per contract, times ten contracts is $3500 dollars. Joe Shmoe Yolo just turned $600 into $3500 dollars. MAGIC. Spoiler alert: Joe Shmoe Yolo was me.
That same Joe Shmoe later buys FEB 17th XOM calls at 90, hoping for similar results. However, XOM ends up never reaching anywhere close to the strike price, and the options expire worthless. Get it?
Now what determines the pricing of options?
Below is sourced from investopedia
Intrinsic Value: The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money.
Time Value: Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value. The more time an option has until it expires, the greater the chance it will end up in the money. The time component of an option decays exponentially. The actual derivation of the time value of an option is a fairly complex equation. As a general rule, an option will lose one-third of its value during the first half of its life and two-thirds during the second half of its life. This is an important concept for securities investors because the closer you get to expiration, the more of a move in the underlying security is needed to impact the price of the option. Time value is basically the risk premium that the option seller requires to provide the option buyer the right to buy/sell the stock up to the date the option expires. It is like an insurance premium of the option; the higher the risk, the higher the cost to buy the option. Makes sense, right?
Time value is determined by the expiration date. An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that an options contract is valid. When investors buy options, the contracts gives them the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell the assets at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If an investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless, and the investor loses the money paid to buy it. Volatility:
In an options pricing, you see IV. This stands for implied volatility. The higher that is, the higher the options will be priced Volatility is the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the option's expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities. How volatility is measured will affect the value of the coefficient used. Decaying Nature of Options:
Decay refers to derivative trading (i.e. options). When you sell or buy a call/put (using those two for simplicity purposes) you don't get an infinite time frame to make your dreams come true. Time is your enemy; the further out the expiration date, the less time decay there is. Time decay really hits the worst the week of expiration. Sound confusing? Say you're buying options of the stock WSB (I hope you're seeing what I did there) - and the option costs $1, the expiration is this Friday. Say today is Monday. You buy a call expecting WSB to take you to the moon and beyond. Each day the stock doesn't move closer to your strike price or remains stagnant/drops, you lose value on your option + the time decay. Meaning if it finishes closer to your strike price, your option could be worthless because of that time decay. Questions? Ask away.
A great example of these factors in action is TSLA.
TSLA’s options are among the most expensive for companies in its price range, why?
An in the money TSLA call expiring this week is worth around $1100 per contract. Insanely expensive. But for a reason. TSLA has extreme intraday movements and calls have an implied volatility of 40.92%. Which is fairly high. In addition to that, it holds high intrinsic value / price per share, and a week of time value. -Futures 101 - The Ultimate YOLO Guide
(thanks to u/IncendiaryGames
Okay, a lot of you have been YOLOing on faggot delights on SPY options. How would you like to trade something with the same or more leverage, 1.0 delta, and no time premium costs? Have you considered futures? What are futures? Unlike options, futures is a contract where both the buyer and seller is obligated to perform the transaction by the expiration. Conversely, in options, only the seller is obligated to perform. That means you can lose more than your investment. Originally they were used by farmers to sell future crops early and guarantee some amount of sales. Since then futures have expanded not just to commodities but currency and equity indices like the S&P 500. Why the heck would I want to trade futures? Here are the advantages: Leverage $5k is the margin requirement for most contracts. For example with the E-mini S&P 500 with 5k you're trading $120k worth of stuff. 1 contract = 500 spy shares. Some brokers offer intraday daytrading margin rates too - TD Ameritrade is 25% of the overnight margin rate($1,250.) Some brokers go as low as $500 an /ES future. SPAN Margin If 24x overnight leverage and 240x day trade leverage didn't give you a hard on there is also SPAN margin, which is like portfolio margin on steroids. The beauty of SPAN margin is you don't need a $125k+ account to be eligible. SPAN will greatly reduce your margin requirements if you hold uncorrelated or inversely correlated positions (up to an 80% discount, here is a list of groups that give discounts) and if you hedge with options. Hedge with the right option or asset and now you have up to 500x day trading margin. 23/7 and day trading Ever get in and out of an equity only to have your broker yell at you to stop doing that or deposit $25k? There is no pattern day trading restrictions on futures. Feel free to day trade and blow up your account as often as you want! You can also trade 23 hours a day. Get trading on how the S&P 500 index will react to news from China right away. Taxes No matter how long or how short you hold you always get taxed under the 60/40 rule. 60% of your profit from futures will be taxed as a long term gain and 40% will be taxed as short term gain. No wash sales. Trade your hearts out. Just remember holding past Dec 31st will treat you as if you closed all your positions that day and you'll be taxed on unrealized gains. Long/Short No need to pay interest or borrow shares as being short a future contract is being a writer, just like an options writer. Options Of course there are options. What fun would it be without options? Unlike stock options each contract gives different number of future contracts. Research what you're trading.
Ok. I'm convinced. I want to strat trading futures! What are some good strategies?
Swing trading Trying to guess/predict/ride sudden market momentum. A low volume average day in the S&P 500 (/ES) for one contract can swing +- $500. Get it right and you can see a huge appreciation of value. /ES is usually highly liquid during regular hours with average volume of 1 million trades and usually bid-ask spreads of one tick. One approach is to buy or short in your direction and put in a stop loss to an amount you're comfortable to lose (say $200.) Since it's so liquid you'll likely be filled at or near your stop loss during the day if your trade goes against you. If you can guess the direction 50% of the time and have trades like this: trade 1 - gain $800 trade 2 - lose $200 Then you may profit over the time period. If you have a 50% chance of being wrong and losing $200 or 50% chance of being right and gaining $800 then over time you'll gain more than you lose. Also, since the present value of your futures contract is included in your margin calculation then if it goes strongly in your favor your position can quickly grow to cover its own margin and you can let it ride for a while. You'll want to be sure you enter a combo buy/short order along with a stop loss order simultaneously, like this for Thinkorswim. Futures can move suddenly and a sudden movement can make you lose a ton of money. Exploiting outdated SPAN margin guidelines There are several out of date correlations between popular futures like oil and say things like wheat that SPAN gives you margin credits on. Take whatever position you want in oil (/cl) then take the opposite in something that doesn't move much day to day with less volatility such as /w (wheat)) and your /cl and /w positions will get a 75% credit, giving you 50% more buying power on crude oil. (2 positions * .25 = 0.5). Trade your heart out on the more volatile future then when you're done close your safer future pair. SPAN is constantly changing but such a complex system definitely has its exploits. Automated/algorithmic trading For you programmer geeks out there it's really hard to algorithmic trade on small accounts due to pattern day trading rules and economies of scale with broker fees. Futures is probably the best way to get your feet wet. Join us on /algotrading
if you want to explore more!
Boring safer strategies
I'm including these for completeness but these belong on /investing
. Scalping With high frequency trading scalping is less guaranteed. Basically scalping is using tiny momentum as usually there are small micro patterns in futures buying and selling activity where it will rise or fall a couple of ticks. Since the notional value of each tick is $12.5 it's profitable for retail investors and small accounts to act as a market maker after fees at the smallest bid-ask spread possible. Spreads Just like you can trade spreads in options, you can trade calendar spreads in futures. Futures have contracts with different expiration dates and the prices are different for each month of expiration based on the market's expectations. You can go long or short the near month expiration and the opposite for the far month. This will hedge out any sudden market moves as that would likely affect both months. Bull markets in general tend to increase the price of the near month faster than the far month. Basically with a spread trade you're making a long term bet on bull or bear for the underlying future. Pairs trading You can go long in one future say the dow jones (/ym) and short the S&P 500 index and profit off the relative growth. This is a hedged trade as any market ups or downs will likely affect both positions with the same % value. For the past 180 days /ym - /es has been really profitable. Even if you don't do a full perfect pairs trade it is still a great option to reduce the leverage too on whatever index future you're trading so you can stay in longer or overnight. Interest rate and optimal leverage plays Since the $5k investment is equal to $120k of the S&P 500 index currently then you'll likely beat out the market by buying one future contract and putting $115k in safe treasuries or bonds or uncorrelated assets. Some people choose to leverage their stock portfolio and you can get the exact leverage ratio of liquid investments to future ratios. In probability theory the max leverage you can gain is determined by the Kelly Criterion which modeling shows indicates the S&P 500 index to be leveraged to 1.40x. Yes, you could do the same with options but even on SPY deep in the money call leaps are illiquid and have a time premium. Even today they are so deep ITM that the options you would need to use have 0 open interest and a bid-ask spread of $5 per share (so $500 per contract.) You'd need ~5 contracts per 120k so you're already eating $2.5k/$120k - 2% interest rate a year for that leverage. SPX isn't better, it's bid ask is 22 so you'd be eating $2.2k/$120k - 1.83% interest rate. It's doubtful you won't get much past the ask as its only market makers providing liquidity and guess what the market maker will do if you buy/sell the option? They will hedge with the underlying futures until their minimum profit is the risk free interest rate. Hedging Going long and short in various non correlated or negatively correlated assets to seek out a high sharpe ratio and have a higher risk free return that is market neutral. Basic hedge fund stuff. The variety and price efficiency of futures makes things pretty attractive in this area. SUBCULTURE
Wallstreetbets is a community that has become infamous for the most wild west, moon or cardboard box trades on the planet earth. WSB is a place where you can take out thousand dollar loans, refinance your homes, cash advance all of your credit cards only to put it all on JNUG, and we will still love you. Your mother won't. Your father will never understand your spectrum of autism, but we will always love you. It is a uniquely beautiful community focused on praising its biggest losers as much as its biggest winners. To begin on the subculture, we should define some key moments in the sub's history.
HISTORY: (As made by u/digadiga
) + my additions
[+1] creates /wallstreetbets
, and word slowly starts to ooze out. 2013: americanpegasus
discovers pennies. AP has seen the light, and is a penny stock evangelist. Jartek & AP have an epic options vs pennies battle - they both lose a couple of hundred bucks, but we are entertained, and WSB is officially born. AP blows up his retirement, swears off pennies and moves onto bitcoins. 2014: fscomeau
[+3] discovers options. He repeatedly bets five figures on AAPL calls before earnings. FS claims a supernatural clairvoyance of AAPL. FS then posts about his chest pains and ER visits. He finally suffers an epic loss. Is he dead? Is he alive? Is he is mother? Is he banned? Who cares? 2015: Photos from the 3rd annual meetup are posted. Where a bunch of dudes hang out on the romantic beaches of Guerrero Mexico. In a completely unrelated event, the wsb banner is changed to thousands of ejaculating dicks. Modpocalypse occurs. Hundreds of random users are added as moderators for a few months. None of the new mods can change the CSS. The constant whining about how "wsb isn't what it used to be" continues. Someone attempts to show how selling covered calls is idiot proof, but gets lazy, bets all six figures on Apple, and suffers significant losses. Robinhood gets popular. Should you buy one share of AMZN or one share of GOOGL? Who gives a fuck. 2016: Everyone starts saying "go fuck yourself." Except me. Because I am what I am. And if you don't like it, you can all go fuck yourselves. u/World_Chaos
performs one of the more impressive yolo's of the sub, starting with 900 dollars, and turning it into 55k. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/414blh/yofuckinglo_900_to_55k_in_12_days/?ref=share&ref_source=link
preforms what he calls "The Final Yolo", a 300k trade against AAPL before earnings (that I, u/thor303456
inversed), supposedly supposed to net fscomeau 2.5 million or so, in which he will finally stop trading. FSC is featured on several market related articles and newspapers, showing up on yahoo, etc. Later we find proof during his livestream of AAPL earnings that he was paper trading. Even later, FSC writes a near 200 page book called "Wolfie Has Fallen" describing how he trolled the entire internet, some following him into that AAPL trade. Martin Shkreli visits the sub and proclaims that GILD pharma is worth over $100 a share and is deeply undervalued.
KEY FIGURES: Donald J Trump
- He is the Marmalade Manchurian, the Tangerine Tycoon, and our spray tan Stalin. Unbelievable night of election. WSB demographics show a primarily capitalist and right wing (or at least joking to be so) point of view, and thus we are generally pro trump. In actuality though, WSB is focused on pro-market
, which Trump happens to be. u/Jartek
- Founder of the sub, original yoloer. Believe he has retired from reddit for the most part. Mostly inactive. u/Fscomeau
- The Canadian as some call him, and perhaps one of the most profound internet trolls of 2016-2017. A French-Canadian trader who deals with mostly options. The man has been called "The Great Inverse", and for a good reason. Nearly all of the trades or statements he made on WSB were completely wrong or mostly wrong. Truly the strongest technical indicator. Martin Shkreli
- An idol to many WSBers, Martin stands as the master of the biotech sector. A very debated character for very stupid reasons. Martin regularly tweets about the stock market, occasionally does a youtube channel, and livestreams fairly regularly. u/theycallme1
- Educated trader, and mod of WSB. Roasts people often and roasts them good. Ask him the questions that aren't stupid. One of the most active mods. u/world_chaos
- some fucking college student with some real net worth. Sits on 100k or so (needs verification), and was an inspiring yoloer to all, with his 900 to 55k yolo with options. Lingo, Terminology, and Nomenclature:
The Faggots Delights - Truly the most suicidal, yet clearest shot to the moon. This term is usually used to define either weekly, or daily option plays on the SPY/SPX. Some users trade them very profitably, such as u/MRPguy
and many in the past.
Cuck - Truly the worst thing you could be. A cuck is a man who likes watching his wife/girlfriend fuck other guys. Weak, spineless, and a term often throw around here.
The YOLO - You only live once. This is something that is, and should be realized as undeniably true. Why are you sitting on a 5k emergency fund that is making you less interest in a year than what I just made in 10 minutes? Why haven't you used all of the credit on your 5 credit cards or used your testicles as collateral for a loan yet? YOLO or YOLOING is as much a psychological decision to embrace absurdism, and win with everything you have while risking it all. Yolo is what it means to be a WSB trader.
Bagholding or a Bagholder - When you're stuck with the most ass trade of your life, because you know it'll go back up. A bagholder is the 59 year old guy at the grocery store who won't quit his Job because he knows he only has to wait another year until he gets a return on his investment (of his life). Anyone holding SUNEQ is the definition of a bagholder.
Autists - Something we embrace, something we call each other, something we all are. Autism isn't used in an offensive way as much as it is a generally accepted term that defines us. The best traders have autism because of their distance from emotion. I bet you never made it to this part of the reading because you're such a damn autist.
Tendies - Tendies are what you get after you make a small amount of money. "I SOLD AMD TODAY FOR A $13 DOLLAR PROFIT, GOING TO MCD's TO GET MY TENDIES". Tendie money is usually shameful and insignificant, but at least it got you tendies. Chicken tenders at McDonalds are the least expensive for the most cholesterol.
I know some of the writing was half ass, full of errors, or otherwise not the best explanation. But I believe this will serve its purpose, and maybe help to promote new ideas from moderately educated traders. WSB has very strong traders, and the most uniquely risky trading styles on the planet. Hopefully this can serve to better the overall community.
You guys are all faggots, upvote this so we can get the noobs to stop trying to bite on our cocks.
Also I'd really appreciate input on anything to add to this overall. It took my over 3 hours to write up, so I eventually grew tired and probably have missing spots.
Enjoy your time here at WSB.
EDIT: Added a shit ton of stuff, fixed errors. THANKS FOR ALL OF YOUR INPUT, ACTUALLY MAKING WSB GREAT AGAIN
MODS: Can we make this editable by others mods or something? My fingers aren't enough. Seems like this could serve as a good "official" thing. Paging u/theycallme1 u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY
Slack chat with James Lovejoy (VTC Lead Dev)
submitted by beerfinger to vertcoin [link] [comments]
Thought I would share this chat I had with James Lovejoy last night. Super generous of him to provide this much access and time answering questions. I was already a HODL'er, but this solidified it.
beerfinger [1:28 AM] Just read through the entire rebranding thread in the Vertcoin subreddit. Earlier today I also watched some of Crypto Hedge's interview of James Lovejoy from last August on YouTube. I understand both sides of the rebranding argument and have tried to play devil's advocate. Right now I do believe that the argument against rebranding is stronger. Full disclosure: I've worked in marketing/advertising my whole career and just recently got into cryptos. With that said, there are two questions that keeps nagging on me:
[1:28] 1. this coin has been around since 2014, so nearly 4 years. James seems like an incredibly smart and capable chap, but I'm just going to go ahead and assume the he hasn't always been the Lead Dev while he was in high school. Presumably there was someone before him and, after he graduates and moves on to whatever it is he's going to do with his life, there will be someone after him. Yes? So, with all due respect to James, as an investor in VTC, what assurances are there that this isn't merely an interesting side-project for a brilliant MIT student with little interest/incentive in its value as an investment portfolio? If the value of this coin to James is that of a college project, that is something I as an investor would like to know.
jamesl22 [1:32 AM] Hey!
[1:33] I've been the lead dev since Nov 2014
[1:33] (while I was in high school)
[1:33] And I've kept at it through college, I certainly don't intend to go anywhere
[1:33] Plus, there are more who work on this project that just me
beerfinger [1:33 AM] 2. I've read complaints about Vertcoin from people who poopoo its usefulness. Decrying it as "just another coin trying to be Bitcoin with not much differentiating it." People don't seem to view the ASIC thing as a big enough differentiator to make VTC stand out. There seems to be a kernel of truth to that as part of the argument against rebranding seems to be a tacit acknowledgement that it should not occur until a major change in the development is launched. So my question again stems back to James' motivations and incentives here. Is this a convenient use case for some college thesis? Or is the team really working on coming up with a major change in development?
[1:34] hey James! wow, thanks so much for your quick response
[1:34] great to actually communicate with you. and I stand corrected. very impressive that you started on this so young. I can see why MIT accepted you :slightly_smiling_face:
[1:36] my questions still stand though: I'm not trying to insult you so I hope you don't take it that way, but as someone who considers VTC part of my investment portfolio, I am very curious to hear about your incentives. You clearly have noble intentions. But what is your ultimate goal? What's the end game? Is it the same as Satoshi's was? (assuming he was really one person who existed)
[1:37] Or is there something else?
jamesl22 [1:37 AM] I think it's the same as Satoshi's
[1:37] To recreate the financial system in a fairer, more distributed way
[1:37] My research at MIT is totally separate to my work on VTC, though the two are complimentary (both are in cryptocurrency)
[1:38] In my ideal world everyone runs a VTC miner and full node in their home, banks become narrow banks and clearing houses/stock exchanges are a thing of the past
[1:39] The rewards of the financial system (in the form of transaction fees) will be distributed to the people, rather than siphoned off by banks or ASIC manufacturers as happens now (edited)
goodminer [1:40 AM] :thumbsup:
beerfinger [1:40 AM] I see. That is compelling. So, being that's the case, that sounds to me like something worthy of a brand, no?
[1:41] Unless you think there are other coins on the market with the same goals. In which case, what will differentiate VTC?
jamesl22 [1:42 AM] I don't think there are any on the market with as strong of an ideology as us
[1:42] Or any that can demonstrate that it follows through on its commitments
[1:42] The way I see it, VTC went from being worth $0.01 last year to 100x that now
[1:43] I don't see how a rebrand can possible accelerate already parabolic growth
[1:43] Bear in mind, that until a few months ago we had 0 marketing, that is where our focus should be now
beerfinger [1:44 AM] Fair. I'm curious, what do you think it SHOULD be worth?
[1:44] I mean right now, at this moment.
jamesl22 [1:44 AM] I don't think I should say, the SEC might be watching us
beerfinger [1:44 AM] Not in the future.
[1:44] Can you say if you feel it is undervalued?
[1:44] or overvalued
jamesl22 [1:45 AM] I will say with confidence that 95% of the top 100 is severely overvalued
beerfinger [1:45 AM] coins you mean
jamesl22 [1:45 AM] Yes
[1:45] On coinmarketcap
[1:45] If you visit most of their websites, there is no code at all
[1:45] Yet it's worth many times what VTC is worth
[1:46] Where VTC has been established for nearly 4 years, bug free and features well demonstrated
[1:46] VTC also had LN and SegWit on main net before LTC or BTC (edited)
beerfinger [1:46 AM] Yes I mean your statement doesn't surprise me. It's a nacent market. Lots of snake oil, clearly.
[1:47] I guess to steer this back towards the branding/marketing of your coin though, you clearly feel strongly about it and have a clear vision. Do you feel that as it stands the branding conveys that sentiment?
jamesl22 [1:47 AM] When you say branding, I assume you mean "vertcoin" and the logo?
beerfinger [1:48 AM] yes. logo, color scheme, etc...
[1:48] name even
[1:49] also to clarify one point, when I say that you clearly feel strongly about it, the "it" refers to your coin (not the marketing of it)
jamesl22 [1:49 AM] I think it's largely arbitrary
beerfinger [1:49 AM] why is that
jamesl22 [1:49 AM] Most coin names have no meaning whatsoever
[1:49] Google, the largest tech company in the world has a silly name
[1:50] Litecoin (whose name ought to imply it has fewer features) is #4
beerfinger [1:51 AM] I wouldn't underestimate the amount of strategy that went into branding Google (and continues to this day)
jamesl22 [1:51 AM] What's most important is the pitch, how can you convince someone who knows nothing about the technicals behind cryptocurrency, that ASIC resistance and decentralisation is important?
[1:51] Yes, but the original branding was arbitrary and haphazard
[1:52] Yet the technology spoke for itself
[1:52] Now it's in the dictionary
[1:53] Spending lots of time and money on a new name/logo, trying to get community consensus on that and then redesigning the website/subreddit/wallets/other services to reflect the changes is not where I think we should focus our small resources
[1:54] My goal over the next year or two is to take VTC from speculative value to real-world value
[1:54] So point of sale, ease of use, that's the focus now
[1:55] I aim to over time provide complete solutions for merchants to implement VTC at point of sale, for laymen to set up nodes and miners in their homes
[1:55] As well as potentially enterprise support if we get big enough
beerfinger [1:55 AM] It sounds like this is your intended career path then, yes?
jamesl22 [1:55 AM] In some shape or form, yes
beerfinger [1:55 AM] Wonderful
[1:55] When do you graduate, James?
[1:55] If you don't mind me asking
slackbot Custom Response [1:55 AM] I AM talking to you aren't I !
jamesl22 [1:56 AM] Charlie Lee worked at Coinbase for several years before returning to LTC a month or two ago
beerfinger [1:56 AM] So you're a Sophomore? Or are you in graduate school?
jamesl22 [1:57 AM] Junior
chuymgzz [1:58 AM] @beerfinger can you imagine when people first heard the word "dollar" like WTF is a dollar where did it actually came from. It actually comes from Czech joachimsthaler, which became shortened in common usage to thaler or taler. Don't pay much attention to the name Vertcoin, just take a look at the tech. If you buy into this coin's ideology, you will actually start to like the name.
jin [1:58 AM] Hey guys :slightly_smiling_face:
[1:59] @chuymgzz but not everyone looks purely at the tech, if we look at the top 100 coins, you would know whats going on :stuck_out_tongue:
beerfinger [1:59 AM] Cool well thanks for indulging me, James. I really appreciate it. Hopefully this conversation continues in the future. While your probably right that right now is probably not the right time, that doesn't mean at some point in the future it won't be. In the meantime, I'll take comfort in the knowledge that I've invested in a worthy cause.
chuymgzz [1:59 AM] Longer term only the functional ones and the ones that deliver will survive and a whole ecosystem will be built around it
jin [1:59 AM] buzz and hype is unfortunately a large part of it
beerfinger [2:00 AM] *you're
jin [2:00 AM] that is true, but without marketing to draw in attention (which leads to usage and so on etc) it will be difficult for a functional one to survive even
beerfinger [2:07 AM] @james122 One more thing: how do you feel about regulation? Pro or con? Do you feel that the idea of nation states like the US and China (ergo the ICO ban) taking it upon themselves to place restrictions on the market to try and make them safer is anathema to the idea of decentralization? Are you a full on libertarian in that respect? Or do you welcome regulation because it'll separate the wheat from the chaff?
jamesl22 [2:07 AM] I think we need a sane amount of regulation
[2:08] ICOs are clearly illegal imo
[2:08] Unless they are performed under the same rules as an IPO
[2:09] Plus I don't want to create a safe harbour for child pornographers, people traffickers and terrorists to store their money
[2:09] However I do think the state has no right to spy on you without a warrant (edited)
beerfinger [2:09 AM] You mean you don't want to be Monero? :slightly_smiling_face:
jamesl22 [2:09 AM] No
[2:10] I will pursue privacy features that make the pseudoanonymity provided by the blockchain easier for people to use effectively
[2:11] That way, it is not obvious to anyone your holdings or transactions publicly (edited)
[2:11] But things like sting operations would still be theoretically possible
beerfinger [2:13 AM] Love it. I still feel the branding thing will need to be revisited at some point. I don't know what that means, exactly. Whether its as small as a font change to something bigger like a new color scheme, logo or even name, I'm not sure of. The ideology is strong, but as it stands Vertcoin doesn't have a clear differentiator in the market. I'm not sure that matters so much yet at this time, but it will.
[2:15] You clearly have a strong vision, I'm just not sure it's being communicated effectively yet. Hence, haters who say Vertcoin is just trying to be another Bitcoin.
workstation [2:15 AM] beerfinger might be a huge whale sniffing out Vertcoin before a huge loadup. Not that, that's a bad thing :stuck_out_tongue:
beerfinger [2:15 AM] haha... I wish
jamesl22 [2:16 AM] Vertcoin is
trying to be another Bitcoin lol
[2:16] It's picking up where Bitcoin left off
[2:16] If people want a decentralised cryptocurrency, they should use Vertcoin
[2:17] Bitcoin just isn't one anymore
[2:17] Neither is Litecoin (edited)
beerfinger [2:20 AM] Semantics really, but if that's the case then that means Vertcoin isn't trying to be another Bitcoin. Bitcoin is already Bitcoin, which is a coin that did not fulfill it's promises. Vertcoin, on the other hand, like you said picks up where Bitcoin left off. I'm not sure that's being communicated by the brand (yet). Doing so may have nothing to do with rebranding (unless rebranding generates a bigger social following who then helps you communicate that).
workstation [2:20 AM] You've continued on a great coin James and no doubt Vertcoin has great features vs other coins, however without widespread use and adoption, Vertcoin might just become another coin without much use. The marketing side is sometimes even more important than the development side. Just need to look at history for that. E.g. Early version of Windows was buggy, bluescreen of death plagued it. But with heaps of $$ and marketing, Windows is pretty rock solid these days.
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jamesl22 [2:22 AM] Yes, agreed to both statements
[2:22] We're working on it, but it takes time and money
[2:23] But really, adoption is pointless until point of sale works properly
[2:23] When you can get it into people's physical wallets, or phone and they can spend it in a store, that's when it takes off (edited)
[2:23] Walmart, Target, all the big retailers hate
Visa and Mastercard
workstation [2:24 AM] Thats a long way off... Even Apple and Samsung are struggling in that area
jamesl22 [2:24 AM] They would love a solution that opted them out of having to pay their fees
beerfinger [2:25 AM] @workstation To play devil's advocate for one sec, most successful people in the world don't achieve success because they tried to achieve success. Success is merely a byproduct of their passion. I do believe that James' commitment to the ideology can be sufficient. But it is true that the branding should communicate his vision. That is a constant conversation, too.
workstation [2:25 AM] yes, true
jamesl22 [2:26 AM] What we really need is talented content creators to make compelling media that explains the vision in a layman friendly way
[2:26] Thus far the message has been far too technical
[2:26] But in the past, the space was mostly populated by technical people so that is understandable
[2:26] It is only in the last 6 months that the general public has started to get involved
[2:27] Sadly "ASIC resistance" doesn't speak to them
beerfinger [2:27 AM] @james122 While it's true that universal adoption is key, you can say that about ANY coin. Even dogecoin would suddenly become a real coin if everyone up and decided to start using it one day. What's your strategy for making VTC that
jamesl22 [2:27 AM] Whereas I think taking power from banks, chinese miners and giving it back to the people can be far more compelling
workstation [2:27 AM] We take Visa and Mastercard at our stores. We only do it because it boosts sales. People these days are all borrowing on credit because they don't have enough.... Paying on their CC# lets them buy things now (instant gratification) and slowly pay later. They managed to get banks on board because they make so much money on the interest. There is a clear reason why those cards satisfy a demand. We get charged about 1.5% by VISA/MC. To be honest, it's not a real deal breaker.
beerfinger [2:27 AM] haha, well, james you're talking to the right guy :slightly_smiling_face:
[2:28] My career is content creation
[2:28] I have nearly 20 years producing commercials and (lately) social content for global brands
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beerfinger [2:29 AM] I would be happy to consult and provide any assistance I can
[2:29] "taking power from banks, chinese miners and giving it back to the people can be far more compelling" - that's your modus operandi
[2:29] you can definitely tell that story in a compelling way
[2:30] Question: have any crypto's ever created any sort of ad before? Even just for social content? (sorry, I'm new to this space)
jamesl22 [2:30 AM] Well we'd obviously be grateful for your assistance
[2:31] I'd imagine so, though I don't follow many other coins' social media very much
goodminer [2:31 AM] @beerfinger lets chat :smile: We've been working on a lot of initiatives over the last few weeks
jamesl22 [2:31 AM] @workstation 1.5% to a huge retailer is a large sum of money though
workstation [2:35 AM] I don't see any coin being widely used to be honest. They fluctuate way too much. Say a typical consumer whose after tax salary is $1000/week.. He buys groceries at the store for $1/Liter. This is simple maths for him, he knows it's going to cost $1 each week, inflation may make it rise to $1.10 next year, but he understands that. With coins, the price of his milk is too hard to calculate.
[2:37] Why would Bob switch to using coins, when Visa/MC give him so much more? He doesnt pay the processing fee (1.5%), he gets free credit (these days, banks will easily approve 10k credits). Why would he switch to Vertcoin?
jamesl22 [2:37 AM] @workstation, volatility is high because market volume is low
[2:38] I think it will take another financial crisis or two though before people start to abandon fractional reserve banking (edited)
workstation [2:42 AM] As long as bob gets his paycheck, he's not going to care what happens at the fed
jamesl22 [2:43 AM] Bob ain't gunna get his paycheck one day though
[2:44] Because the credit ponzi scheme economy will have collapsed
workstation [2:48 AM] yes, the fed can print whatever it wants out of thin air... But its backed by US tax payers to the tune of 2+ trillion/year with most banks adhering to loan capital requirements. E.g. they need a certain amount of money deposited before they can loan more money out. What is Bitcoin/alt coins backed by? Seems like its somewhat of a ponzi scheme now, with everyone piling in thinking it will go up forever. I get that BTC is backed by real energy usage/capital requirements to mine it (asic equipment, datacenters, etc), so its more "real" than $1 USD, but they both service a purpose.
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workstation [2:51 AM] but whats the end goal because it seems they all become ponzi schemes. The only true coin will be one that will not allow any fiats be converted to to coin.
[2:51] the only way to earn a coin, would be to mine it, wouldn't you think that that would be the truest coin?
[2:52] right now people are just moving wads of fiat money into coins/alt coins, thereby skewing everything.
beerfinger [2:54 AM] just jumping in here with one last comment before I go to sleep: money, whether we're talking salt, precious metals, fiat currency, or cryptos, is just something that we all agree to prescribe a value to. That being the case, how are you going to stop someone from trading that value for something they want? If someone wants to trade their cryptos for chickens, a latte, USD or anything else, they're going to do it. No point in trying to regulate what people spend their money on or how they do it. Seems the antithesis of the whole decentralization thing anyway
workstation [2:57 AM] true
aegisker [3:02 AM] I belive when crypto matures, has fast and easy payments solutions, volume will rise and price will be more stable. Current price is speculation due to news and new development. I dont belive that after 10 years we will be seeing such swings.
beerfinger [3:04 AM] sorry keep thinking of new stuff... @jamesl22 your point about POS is salient. What's your perspective on coins like TenX that try to address that with payment platforms and cards?
[3:05] is that what you mean? nuts & bolts, how would Vertcoin become a POS option?
aegisker [3:06 AM] How is usdt keeping its price around usd?
beerfinger [3:07 AM] don't they just keep up with USD inflation by making sure there's an equal amount of tokens to USD in the market at any given point?
jamesl22 [3:07 AM] Integration of LN and AS is key
[3:07] Then providing some hardware or software solution to integrate with payment processors
[3:07] I haven't looked at tenx
beerfinger [3:07 AM] so Vertcoin IS actively pursuing this then
[3:09] perhaps there's some way to leverage things like ApplePay
jamesl22 [3:09 AM] I doubt it
[3:09] ApplePay's design is fundamentally different
beerfinger [3:09 AM] I mean it doesn't have to be ApplePay itself. Can be a separate app
lucky [3:09 AM] Having bitcoin or altcoins tied to your debit card isn't unbelievable
jamesl22 [3:10 AM] Of course not
[3:10] But it is suboptimal
beerfinger [3:10 AM] yeah sort of kills the whole decentralization thing
lucky [3:10 AM] in fact if we are going the whole hog and saying fiat collapsed. You'd be silly to think the banks would standby and let crypto take over without them
beerfinger [3:10 AM] now we're relying on banks again
lucky [3:11 AM] At the first sign of crypto succeeding fiat. Banks will take over
[3:11] Because they can trade their fiat to coin
[3:11] Government too
aegisker [3:12 AM] Well, banks issues debt, whole market is built around debt. Crypto would take that away
[3:12] This will be hardest transition
jamesl22 [3:12 AM] If the crypto market ever gets to say $1tril, the banks will use their lobbyist army to squash it as best they can
lucky [3:13 AM] Is it not possible crypto gets immediately regulated into the banking system as soon as it passed fiat in some way
jamesl22 [3:13 AM] They don't care right now because the space is tiny compared to their own equity
lucky [3:13 AM] Yes exactly James
beerfinger [3:13 AM] i like the idea of leveraging NFC tech as a way to introduce crypto to POS purchases... everyone already has a smart phone so no need to reinvent the wheel... it's basically just an app
lucky [3:13 AM] If finance is going to change politics needs to too
[3:14] Nfc seems like the way. Yeag
[3:14] Lots of the android wallets leverage it
aegisker [3:14 AM] No need for nfc, nfc was kinda overhyped. Qr codes can work equally good
jamesl22 [3:14 AM] @beerfinger I think LN will allow us to achieve that
lucky [3:14 AM] Lol qr
[3:14] Who has ever scanned a qr....
jamesl22 [3:14 AM] We just need a hardware implementation for the reader
beerfinger [3:14 AM] sorry james, what's LN?
lucky [3:14 AM] Apple made sure qr never worked
jamesl22 [3:14 AM] Lightning Network
beerfinger [3:14 AM] ah
aegisker [3:15 AM] If u use your phone, why complicate with nfc, is there a security benefit?
beerfinger [3:15 AM] the infrastructure is there... most readers i come across these days are already NFC compliant
jamesl22 [3:15 AM] QR can work, but requires a high res display in the POS device
[3:15] Which would increase costs
[3:15] NFC is cheap af
lucky [3:16 AM] Yep. Qr is extremely requirement heavy
aegisker [3:16 AM] For example, pub: you get check with qr. U pay with your phone. Waiter sees on his computer that its payed.
lucky [3:16 AM] Look at Asia and south America
[3:16] Nobody can read qr
aegisker [3:17 AM] I europe all checks already have qrs for tax checking
lucky [3:17 AM] I work in global marketing. Qr is completely unadopted in the real world
[3:17] Yes in no public scenario qr is used
aegisker [3:17 AM] Where you from?
lucky [3:17 AM] Uk
[3:19] A decade in marketing I can tell you for sure Joe public doesn't scan qr codes
[3:19] James is right. We need an alternative hardware solution
[3:19] And I think I unique piece of tech in public would drive massive interest
aegisker [3:20 AM] In slovenia, croatia, austria(i tjink) there is law that all transactions in coffeeshops or shops(everything with fiat transaction) is sent to tax authority as soon as check is printed. U get qr code on your check, so you can check if tax s paid for your service. This is to prevent black markets and unauthorized sellers. Works pretty well. If you frequently scan qrs you can get some bonuses..
[3:21] Public got used to this pretty fast.
lucky [3:21 AM] So there's an incentive
aegisker [3:21 AM] So also you could print qr shop wallet addr.
lucky [3:21 AM] Kind of skews the ease of adoption stat we are looking for
aegisker [3:22 AM] Costz nothing
lucky [3:22 AM] Costs a smartphone with a quick camera
[3:22] How about in a dark club
beerfinger [3:23 AM] I came tonight with many questions about Vertcoin. Namely the incentives of the Devs and how it differentiated itself in the marketplace. All of those questions have been answered as best as I could have hoped. The only
thing left is figuring out a way to tell that story. @jamesl22, all of the things you've said tonight are reassuring and exciting. They provide great promise for the future of this coin and even more - your goals, if realized, are truly category shifting. This is such
a compelling story. TELL IT!
lucky [3:23 AM] Asking every transaction to require an in focus photo capability is insane, imo
aegisker [3:23 AM] uploaded and commented on this image: IMG_20170908_092307.jpg 1 Comment Thats how it looks
lucky [3:23 AM] We need something similar to a contactless debit card
[3:24] Good luck scanning that in the dark with a £100 smartphone. Though.
aegisker [3:24 AM] For starters this is easiest solution for early adoption (edited)
workstation [3:25 AM] why not something short like vCoin. Then u could make it go off V=Vendetta, sort of has a nice mystery, anti establishment
aegisker [3:25 AM] You just need plugin for your pos software that checks your crypto wallet for received funds
[3:26] Imo this is easiest way to implement first public purchases of beer or coffee
beerfinger [3:26 AM] by the way, less is more when it comes to branding
[3:26] look at apple
[3:26] i love this example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUXnJraKM3k
YouTube Brant Walsh Microsoft Re-Designs the iPod Packaging
[3:31] and there's always something to be said for ad wars... apple's david vs goliath attack ads vs microsoft is what put them back on the map
[3:31] that could be a great angle for Vertcoin... go after Bitcoin
[3:31] make fun of it the way Jobs poked at Gates
[3:32] that's just my 2 Vertcoins
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